This guy is very active with regard to tropical posts , he believes if models are accurately depicting the El Niño upper level winds becoming established by September ..he thinks an avenge season will be a struggle to attain , as well as the CCKW’s favorable region sort of slowing over the East pacific in August (where action will be focused )
I am feeling that if these pieces stay in place over next couple weeks guidance , it will be a slow year (and ya ya we know it only takes 1)