STILL N OF PIKE

He is bathing in the afterglow of a dilf tug 86f

We are all in this together

DIT will be using MTP obs for this one

Ran into my buddy at grocery store yesterday . He works at Ken Jones Ski mart in Manchester . Believe he said they begin getting ski’s resdy today. He was curious if the shop was going to cut the season ski passes they give employees . He was talking about a giant supply disruption from manufacturers regarding new skis for this upcoming season. I was mentioning to him about NH needing a big natural snow year bc I just don’t see how they will go forward w regular snow making plans . They may say otherwise now , but the reality of the situation is ...politically correct panic lurks right below the surface . What I mean is as soon as Flu season gets underway , and people in public actually produce symptoms consistent w Covid (they aren’t necessarily distinguishable) that every single flu sniffle and cough will be met w a different sort of level of concern (that will surprise people) and this on top of the current backdrop will result in doing everything to be safe , especially with the hope that a vaccine is around the corner (in spring ) , That will probably mean whoever shuts down the most will appear to be doing the best job to be “safe”. The media will play its usual role to not miss a opportunity to “inform/ frighten” people and enhance this response. The stage is more than set. .02 cents I certainly could be wrong , In particular if the country is seeing falling Covid cases from a decently low point that would be very helpful as flu season kicks in, that would be my big hope for people’s health and businesses.

Riveting system

This thing has literally blown up in the last hour. Radar pressentation (while not the end all be all of organization) underwent a 180. Seems crazy that it could be possible, but I cant say for certain that LLC didn't tug 15 miles NNE under the deep convection that just exploded and line up with that ring of convection that looks like a developing eye wall. Sam Lillo was impressed via twitter

some melting appears to be going on by scooter

I will take the no SNE severe (East) And under 50 wind parlay

Bad am run?

Actually radar shows a open eye wall

95 is really no big deal for a tiny storm with a closed eye wall

given the dry air and modest SW shear and tiny size it’s closed eye wall will have some trouble to deal with Its eyeball has improved as Rev posted but it’s satellite presentation shows elongation N-S and it’s probably up in the air if this eye wall can maintain itself ..on its Florida approach This could be a weak TS to a solid Hurricane - tiny storms obviously can surprise

Matters for Bahamas to NC but it seems the westerlies usually lead to adjustments east once it reaches 35N latitude , it’s rare for a system w out a classic Ohio trough to not tickle east (as for some reason models) seem poor with its angle of movement between 35-45 N latitude and always correct toward less of a NNE component and more toward NE /ENE (in my experience) maybe Mets can chime in on the chances for the east trough to align more favorable for a more poleward north motion above 35N as opposed to the opposite

Ok . I ask bc All it’s 0z ensembles that were west and hit FL were under 65 knots

As weak sauce?

Storm looks a bit crappier this am, intensity forecasts the next couple days are all over the place looks like it could struggle for 72 hours until it leaves the space coast S inflow should be chocked off decently now from the mountains to the S and SE of the center

Yup ,, that trough blows . Maybe it can shift a touch. Seen this movie many times .

where is Jimmy

When does the euro hit ....

Ukie

is this really not getting crippled by Land interaction w D.R . It’s weak, should see less organization today , especially as S inflow is choked off by D.R mountains if this does skirt N coast

We should be able to say that a few more times with next model runs

Appears unfavorable sinking air for the next few systems , no

Looking at satellite , it appears to me to be forming on S side of (disturbance envelope ) between 12.5/13N compared to the earlier estimate of a General center near 14 N by NHC at 1 we shall c i wouldn’t be surprised if this wraps up in that area faster

I’ll go with “insight” lol