STILL N OF PIKE

ECB to buy more bonds increase QE within their current monetary policy which was unchanged but devil in details nasdaq should move higher

830 am Euro central bank press conference is the next news market mover watch Yield response . If yields fall Nasdaq likely reclaim 50 day moving average and money flows into Nasdaq . if they rise, things Likely get chaotic again If ECB backs themselves into a higher yields equal confidence corner than I would hide

Institutional money is the game changer that can drive this sky high

Ya and I love the narrative that this is retail driving this . 150 in a half hour is big boys

Well, the market acts Somewhat Bi-polar day to day normally ..never straight in one direction ..now it’s the equivalent of tossing the market some coke booze and acid and watching it look for direction . Markets will decide soon which way to move Fed killed real price discovery but I mean I believe they had to give that much support to keep this broken system kicking the can and socially important safety nets solvent. I know many disagree

Tesla made a big Tesla move today . 18% Right now the Dow is up against the top rail of a rising trend line that has stopped it several times . That rail is at 32,200 . It hit it early today and fell back , prior to that ...It ran nearly straight up after hitting the bottom rail of the trend line SP 500 is near the top of a sideways triangle ..which requires a close over 3900 to break out of . If SP loses 3820 then the bottom of the triangle is 3710 and if the SP breaks down and not out of this triangle (has to break some way in next week or two) then it’s likely falling to 3510 and that would be a amazing buying opportunity The Dow has a negative divergence that would look like it will have a much better shot of closing lower tomorrow , but you never ever know

Nasdaq with a very impressive rally today . People smarter than me say if it closes above 13010 then it’s bearish short term trend is neutralized. You are seeing the quality tech names rally big today (FAANG’s plus AMD/NVDA and the semi conductor’s while the revenue free spacs and other dreamers who are all hype and no revenue to 2023 or whatever are still left behind NIO is up 16% XPEV 14.5% two ev companies whose sales are rising fast but whose valuations got way ahead of themselves before they just fell 50-55%

It does , but that is a side show to me . I wonder what others are seeing that reddit push , I would guess reopening plays w big short interest ..maybe malls ?

Yields down overnite to 1.53’ish and Nasdaq futures up 2%, day traders market currently . ECB releases any policy changes to their bond buying program and their thoughts on Thursday ..if they don’t increase purchases of long end debt the yield response will be key to watch Thursday for a tantrum . Anyone who wants or was short the long bond further ( drive 10 year yield up ) is probably temporarily hesitant till ECB response is known And will probably see no ECB Thursday action as a big fat green light for weeks to short bond prices (spike yields) That would be the ECB joining the Fed saying : Go ahead hedge funds and investment banks, we will not defend the 10 year yield , use all your money and market liquidity and short the long bond we are not getting involved ...and they will big time and then you will be on watch to see valuations in Nasdaq and some SP names compressed quite nicely .

Those stocks were basically priced as thou they were already success stories ...although they may very well succeed that is still ..some time in the future and their future financing costs just got more expensive as interest rates rose. To be direct...their valuation metrics were ridiculous and are no longer supported by Historically low long term interest rates which then... rising long rates compresses the valuation metrics of all those clean energy play that tripled in about 3 months after November election (they were massively overbought) especially those that don't have much in the way of current revenues. There success as future business has not changed. Basically what i said to watch at 8:13 in the video i posted last page with the Ben Melkman Bloomberg interview from this summer. Basically anything Cathy Wood owned is getting slaughtered.....these are not bad companies but all these new innovative future leaders rose to the levels they did due to long run rates that were tiny (10 year at 1% and 30 year at 2%) which allows valuations to reach levels they just hardly ever do. Basically you pull forward many years of future returns to the present when you take the long run discount factor (30 year interest rate to 2%) and when rates move the other way you see valuations compress and stock prices move accordingly downward like Cory's accordion (shrinking) regardless of earnings. Anyone who invested in Interest rate sensitive stocks, especially after they already went up 300% is getting taken to the wood shed and there is no indication of that stopping unless maybe the European Central bank says at their meeting Wednesday that they are going to move to reduce long term rates. Fed isn't really close to acting...i mean the Dow Transports and Industrials just made all time highs today (although even the dow has seen very high volatility)

up to 202 46% gain today.... Option on various strike prices increased about 400- 500% today Dow Transports and industrials made new ALL time highs this am... mean while Nasdaq and it's bloated Valuations still falling on a otherwise up day. Cyclical stocks and reopening plays shining today....JAY-DIS up 5% about 15% higher than the panic lows of a day ago. High yield debt continues to fall and this negative divergence with equities is sometimes the canary in the coal mine as the rising interest rates maybe spilling over and widening credit spreads ..this usually takes a day or so to spill over into stocks.

I honestly am over my head. The market has so much liquidity sloshing around that you are seeing tremendous move in different directions daily almost. Buffet described "Mr Market" as a bi polar individual who moves day to day confidently in one direction till he stops on a dime and moves confidently in another...this behavior is being amplified. What you said certainly is possible and would make sense. The market levels of speculation were getting ridiculous...but it would seem there would be better word choices Powell could have used to accomplish this or at least it left the Fed very vulnerable to needing to reverse course and likely doing so "late" and re actively but that is very possible as other chairman have done this and been more direct about it at times (Bernanke) . A CNBC clip i watched (linked below) showed the FED is looking at more than the 10 year thou ...but also Credit spreads in high yield and investment grade debt and won't act till this spills over into those credit markets. Thus there is pain potential and if you want relief it won't be coming from the Fed soon (best shot is European Central bank) They will also probably be forced to move goal posts if the market moves violently downward. Net positioning in Long dated bond moved to net short 99K last friday after being net long 3k the week before. Money last week piled in to increase Bonds yields higher primarily in the US. The Euro Central bank is Talking more aggressively about action but they didn't show it last week in their buying so when they meet Mid week they could act aggressively to stop the bleeding ...their meeting will be closely watched. You could also see money flowing into foreign equities. Japan Central bank owns 2/3 of all the Japanese Gov't Debt lol and they have a very easy time controlling long rates and they have come out and said they won't let them move....i.e that market looks less risky. You can also see as the market is partying this morning. Mostly cyclical and value stocks (reopening plays along with banks) that high yield debt is not having it and there is a negative divergence developing. You generally want to see HYG (high yield) move in line with stocks. You maybe starting to see the turmoil spill into credit spreads which the equity markets tend to follow ...so that ticker is worth watching. How ever Dow Jones Transports index has made a new all time high Today , so the liquidity is flowing there , cyclicals, and Shorting long bonds. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/hyg?mod=over_search

It’s a rare thing , but if the equity indexes are going to be “saved” from rising yields soon, it Likely won’t be the Fed. The Fed isn’t close to acting , Powell has no support to intervene at these 10 year levels and they are also hinting they will wait till credit spreads widen in other parts of the market like High yield spreads and investment grade spreads ...I.E they will not be proactive ..but reactive . If markets are going to be saved (before much more pain) it’s going to be from the European Central Bank (ECB) they are the ones with Some countries in some Kind of recession , the increase in 10 year yield globally has caused Their member countries flat to negative growth to stop improving , And led them to at least Talk in a way that market wants to hear but the market (without Fed reserve help) is going to require big action from ECB . . The ECB also meets Thursday to discuss policy so any spike in yields This week may actually be good bc it could force them to act and increase QE to target reduction in long bond rates . That really is the key this week , otherwise we are just waiting for market to be hit by a selling attack . Bonds are wildly oversold so they could bounce here with equities but even thou I'm a bit over my head this sure is fun ha. back to regular scheduled programming

It's really based on the Guy i have followed for 12 years that i commented about and linked his archives in the response to Hippy, i mean i don't just follow him like a puppy but overall it checks out with what a lot of the smart minds seem to be saying regarding where huge growth is and will continue to be taking place. They aren't speculative stocks that are gonna tank ...they are billion dollar beasts that are leaders in their field. I will say ... I believe almost all stock investing is more risky than what most professional will admit to since the returns they have presided over have not seen a financial system this dependent on fed intervention The Fed is going to let a ton more pain occur based on what they have said , the biggest hope would be the ECB acting aggressively to stem bond yields (they have at least tried to talk them down but the market wants action) . They release KEY data today on wether they increased bond buying last week (which will show their level of effort/concern) and the market will react, they also meet this week to go over current policies , so if this sell off is going to end this week , it’s gonna need a aggressive increase in QE from Euro Central Bank , I just don’t know if they can do the heavy lifting required.

One very successful investor i follow and subscribe to has a portfolio that he doesn't aggressively manage...he just looks for buying opportunities in a few select names of major tech stocks when their valuations are favorable and that look to be tied into what he sees as the major mechanisms of growth in the next 20 years...A.I / Cloud computing/Robotics/Deep mind so he has a basket of say NVDA/AMD/GOOG/AMZN and he looks to add on dips when his valuation metrics look favorable....and he reshuffles his holdings to reflect a companies positioning/ leadership in the field (I.E he dropped Intel over a year ago when NVDA began crushing them) ..When a stock runs too far too fast he sometimes sells a sizable portion (like AMZN in June ...right now he is looking at any dips as great buying opportunities in all 4 names...if i had a large amount of capital i would generally trust his advice as I've followed him since 2008 and he called the bottom in 2009 and encouraged investors to buy aggressively then...he was all in all of the 2009-2018 period as most were thinking that bull market would die any one of those years... called the buying opportunity in Covid last spring (i.e he doesn't panic) . His name is Nadeem Walayat and he runs the market oracle site and if you find his articles you can search his archives for his advice around those dates and it's the best i have found over the greatest period. We shall see how he does in the next 10 years. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Nadeem_Walayat.html

I wouldn't really be comfortable with many equities right now, that said i haven't looked at DIS valuations or projected revenue/EPS growth in 2021..if the valuations are near DIS historical levels and the EPS/Revenue growth look good with reopening...then i think its a solid place to be regarding equities (which may all be under pressure for a bit) . Any stock that is seeing tremendous Growth in Revenue/EPS like some of the Tech names like NVDA/GOOG/AMD i really like for the long run but i wouldn't be shocked to see another 15% come of the top first. The stocks with insane valuations and pretty growth stories that are 3-4 years out just had the sun set on them for a while unless the Fed does a 180 and moves into to do some Major QE And bond buying on the long end of the bond curve to surpress those 10-30 year yields/interest rates that really got us to the historic stock valuations we just had. If the fed intervenes and brings the 10 year yield and 30 year back down to 1 and 2 percent respectively the music begins playing again , until then things have just had a major shift. People need to understand one thing. Doesn't really matter their level of knowledge. I've been listening to what i consider a wide swath of some of the greatest minds in this field every day for the last year..they don't all say the same thing...by any stretch of the imagination but one thing seems to ring true. Listen to minute 7:06 to 8:55 of this interview for anyone who owns stocks. Especially the sentence at 8:13 (where reversal in long run discount factor means reversal in long term bond rates i.e yields rise) You don't have to understand every word but he sort of repeats the same thing a few times.

I would park most of it in cash for the short term and be defensive , we are in a pretty rare spot where bonds selling off is hurting stocks . The couple sectors holding up (fiancé and energy ) are quite overbought and if they join the selling , there could be quite the sale in almost all asset classes That come to mind .. O and a rising 30 year bond is not good for a housing market at these current price to income multiples , thou that takes time to work its way thru. I think the speed at which bonds are moving will give visibility to the currently foggy outcome rather quickly . In the end ..Foreign equities may attract more capital and may enjoy continued bull markets . I would just wait till there is a little more visibility with regard to big speculators shorting bonds and the fall out in stocks. At some point the fed would have to move in and I honestly hope they are just letting some steam off markets because the Federal reserve is actually tightening policy (inadvertently) right now by encouraging speculators to short bonds Which increases mortgage rates , lowers bond values and stock prices all at once . It’s ironic that most people seem to forget Again that the “market” is still severely disconnected from the economy and even thou the economy is starting To turn back up doesn’t mean the Fed can afford to lessen accommodative policy, Sadly , asset values at current valuations are built on a mountain made of sand, But also integral to a solvent pension system and much more . Monetary systems Like people become more Fragile and require more care *the older they get* (Especially those that are debt based an accrue interest) ..but this isn’t always understood because it wouldn’t necessarily contribute to confidence in the system.

The 45 and up divorcees are generally very appreciative of anyone younger and In decent shape paying them attention . Where I work ..They have the money /career, usually a kid they love and If there looks aren’t dead ..they just want to feel alive / a spark again ..it’s the truth.

Don't worry i'm not going to rapid post about "bond yields" but the market for the short term is in very shaky territory (Energy and financials have been holding SPX up decently) as Nasdaq has been horrible. So this will be only post for a couple days on it. The High valuation growth stocks with optimistic far in the future revenue projections (should keep falling) even if that bottom is a 70% haircut ....the Big industry leading tech stocks with enormous Growth/ revenue / that was not dependent on Covid will continue to be safe and Best plays long term (GOOG/AMD/NVDA) ..we do have a relatively high level of distress and volatility ahead in the short term due to rapidly rising bond yields and how quickly they are rising out of a incredibly low rate environment (that environment is what fueled the speculation that caused the SP 500 to rise regardless of how many deaths there were and how depressed economy had been ) . As the market adjusts to this yield Regime change so to speak valuation in certain sectors are bankrupting many of the retail traders..who thought "stonks only go up" . if rates were rising slowly this would not spook the market so much ...but the market had extremely high levels of Margin debt that was used to lever up long bullish bets on stocks...and now the Fed Reserve has a chairman Powell who is trying to juggle several Fed takes at once and stay consistent 1. He wont raise short term rates (fed funds rate) 2. he isn't worried about inflation 3. He decided that rising rates were a sign of confidence and he is willing to sit on his hands and not intervene. Number 3 is the problem as there is a tidal wave of liquidity available in this market and the market is a bunch of addicts seeking Alpha returns ....the reason that is a problem is because the investors/ market "doesn't fight the fed" (speculation generally invests in areas the Fed appears to support then flees areas they are not) ....and right now Powell by saying "he is sitting on his hands and won't intervene in rising bond yields " that increase borrowing costs and will hurt housing market if this persists and slow the recovery..he even said rising yields can be seen as confidence in market....bad move .... The reason this is a big problem is because the market is merciless and they will take that as we should gather all available liquidity and short the long bond (Push the yield/interest rate up on the 10 year /30 year bond because the Fed is telling thus they won't intervene to stop us...they see rising rates as a good thing lol . So the market says ...thanks Jay ...we will do this ....and ya equities could may have begun to face a disorderly unwind due to the amount of margin debt that is long stocks...and how certain highly weighted sectors have been falling as rates rise....this can spill to all sectors but so far it hasn't and the VIX has behaved.... the amount of intervention required for fed to cap yields is not well known ...just speaking that they are willing to step in could work (because market doesn't want to fight the fed) but it requires Powell being nimble to reversing their "blah blah rising yields is great talk " but this casino is also directly tied to the solvency of Pensions , household balance sheets and the Fed would have to turn tail if we see Bond yields rise dramatically because there is a imaginary line where fear crosses into the market and it is difficult to shake out when it does and that is when very sizable moves occur in short time frames ... it should be a fun ride...maybe we just fall another percent or two and trade sideways for a bit .....or as Stocks should keep falling in a volatile fashion as there is nothing (so far being said by FED) to stop the green light they inadvertently gave to hedge funds or large investment banks to lever up and short 10 year bond yields..i would favor this route unless the FED talks up intervention more than they have. I would guess we could see 2.0 on the 10 year by the first week of April and the average 30 year mortgage rate may go above 3.30 or so by then before the Fed is forced to expand intervention and cap yield rises.

So they are operating at 50% capacity and they were probably close...lots of mom's /kids having a blast. They obviously took a beating last summer (the busy season when they said they average 8000 guests and had 3000 daily) but they will be at full capacity this summer . There Was some solid dining options......i'm just somewhat picky and usually just look for a decent seafood entry that is a good size....Just so cold out that i didn't want to go down to the Mystic water front. I stayed Across from the Aquarium at the Hilton and i just had a nice dinner downstairs (The Irons) . I wanted to check out the Casino but i'm not a big fan of the odds...so i checked it out during the day...semi depressing scene...mostly elderly just pulling slots...lol got a 20$ burger and then rode some racing go karts which was cool . Spent rest of time in Mystic. I just wanted to try a different area and Stowe was priced like Gamestop stock ("to the moon")

A friend knows the Director there, so I had a nice tour where I got to meet all the animals close up. It was hilarious the way some of the sea lions act and have been trained .

Spent the nite in Mystic (Ct) a little Foxwoods (not totally my thing), nice diner and just did Mystic Aquarium , had a couple hour personal tour , had a seal on my lap, Would say it definitely beats Boston Aquarium

Markets love to front run what the Fed is going to do Powell to markets and investment banks today . You can bid up bond yields As fast as you want and I will sit on my hands . Stocks will fall and a levered market will unwind but I’m sitting on my hands . So whatever amount of capital speculators and investment banks can come up with ..they were told Today ..bid up bond yields and I won’t do anything to intervene till some future point when the rise is disorderly . Markets respond by bidding up yields as he flaps his mouth . That was the worst public showing by a fed chairman in a while . He is asking them to make money shorting bonds and when bond rise stock valuations keep repricing lower until they reach a valuation that matches the norm for that interest rate . In doing so he is throwing away the trillions in support he has put behind market That has been used to lower interest rates .

Powell trying to tank the market apparently lol He speaks and yields go vertical . He is really saying the wrong things ... Apparently he is long “great reset”

how bout that market lol Nasdaq is falling hard and Jay Powell is not looking close to saying what the market wants to hear. SP 500 is gonna retest the lower rail of a 11 month trend line for the second time in a week shortly ..unless 10 year rates organically fall due to being oversold. I know very exciting stuff.. Just incredibly boring to 90% haha