STILL N OF PIKE

nammy running

I would just add that folks are gonna want several hundred feet elevation to get more than advisory amounts unless this trends even deeper. I would favor 495 area and tad beyond (in a relative sense) because of that elevation. Maybe i'm wrong

That was garbage thou (that output) IMO. This was a tremendously better run under the hood and based on what would fall from sky verbatim in low elevations.

I was looking at AirBNB there this am....But if this shift any more east with second part then best forcing could be east of them.

I won't be going to S Vt on this one. Not buying the big totals by 495 in Mass but also was only traveling out there for the 20" potential that looked great. Seems that may be knocked down a bit (still a very good storm out there ) but no quite worth my travel

Lets stop trending about now

I mean I'm buying what the meso's are selling as far as the evolution of this system. It's just to what degree the later capture plays out. Now it's just a matter of does the Nam stop trending toward Georges bank with the CCB. The initial stuff in the first punch overnite is rain for 90% no matter what. Cept for S VT, High elevation berks and Monads and i wonder if N Orh county will see much before dawn except Weenie Ridge in Princeton and maybe Whineminster at near 1300'. Not sure if 1K will cut it for accums overnite before any CCB action Friday.

Not that it's correct but i see two meso's that take the 7H low from SW Ct Over toward Islip Long Island then over to Cape cod...albeit it looks weaker in Mid levels till the cape.. as capture is later. I think that is the trade off. On the 6z nam the 7H low begins to strengthen Over Ack or actually a hair S as it just sort of sits there Friday I would like to see the Nam move back a shade West at 12z and other models move toward that .

Seems like Meso's have been leading the way with the LP swinging more eastward before the North turn, My guess is that 0z SPC HREF above continues to trend in that direction when 12z is out. My BTV WRF already took the low a hair Se of Ack on 0z run approach. Rap did the same. Something is uppp

Thanks.

I was half joking last nite but can this Low dumbell out so wide right before it's approach north that it misses wide right. I mean i'm not saying that will happen but the Nam was close at 6z

9z Rap destroys most eastern areas over to Orh country and Monads. I like the 20" for Stoneham, MA area lol

In all seriousness , gun to head at this moment I think we sees a sloppy inch or two for the CP 15 or so miles inland if things break ok , might be two bouts of snow there early am and again Friday late day , and 3-5” at 500” around 495 and 5-10” for N Orh county I see a big elevation snow in western areas and I would guess that there will be some areas near 2.4-2.5 K that see 2 feet in S VT to maybe N Berks for areas that flip and accumulate before dark . I believe Kev area is extremely hard to forecast and likely sees 5-6” at 1K I could see my area getting advisory amount in fire hose Friday am and I could see greenfield getting 3-4 of glopppp. I see my area having a better shot of getting shut out currently .

For what ...a nooner ?

maybe i should look at a Hotel in Brockton...Ma?

any more stretching of the ULL than that and i'm not sure that LP gets tugged back lol

Disrobe

Gotta like that low position at 12z Friday on Nam. 100 Miles SE of ACK ...deepening...and heading N ready to do a loopidy loop

BOOM

Ok. ...

9 in a row. Wow. I haven't watched a pitch and wrote them off early. Yikes

Whineminster at 1280' is gonna be interesting. What a spot for ORH county

N orh and Monads seem to have beefed up a tad. The towns like Marlow, Stoddard, Washington near 2K in Monads have some wiggle room ...where as 1K in N orh County still will probably play victim to the clowns to a degree.. i.e 4-6 instead of 10". It looks so close

N of PIKE and W of i-90 is looking sneaky

What would you do for a lil Tickle south.