STILL N OF PIKE
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Everything posted by STILL N OF PIKE
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Looking like a crotched mountain crush job for monads . WPC with 80% + for that area for 8”+.
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You can see the gfs has moved to the euro idea of a slower and stronger secondary system . If you scroll to Jeff’s animation . The low placement has been steadily moving WNW on the time stamp Jeff posted and the euro had that low Position slower and tight to Long Island first And has also adjusted slightly slower to its own idea
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I really see it as a pretty even march toward each other when you weigh the last 5 day period sort of equally . Those that saw the most sensible weather differences at the margins change with either model probably weigh those more than the wholesale changes for the New England area in entirety .
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I really like the elevated area just W and WNW Of me . Gonna rock on those S monad spots that clean up on E flow during day Saturday with BL issues hurting ratio in low elevations
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Not to distract from thread as we are waiting for euro , but I want to do a detailed write up of that chase , it’s very hard to describe what I felt like I experienced in the last 15 miles Of that drive and I recall it vividly , most all the details and without hyperbole I was extremely lucky to arrive and I did not appreciate the conditions I would be encountering that early in storm and all the detours that made my arrival time (later) more treacherous.
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I chase because I’m very very sick . I mean leaving Xmas eve am to drive 7 hours lol
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My elevation is Nil / Nada Merrimack valley 200’ you run basically due west of me and it’s like that till you go from like 350 to 1100 over 3 miles (15 miles west of me ) and it’s crush city on many events
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I would be excited in S NH elevations ..if I lived 15 Miles west or NW at 8-900 feet I’d be feeling good for 6-8” +. I see a hike to miller state park being a decent possibility Saturday . If that E inflow gets established
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I don’t see much track shift at all on 925/850 on Ukie . Also temps in NE mass / SE Nh mass identical for sat am to early pm period . Just 0z was a shade faster with secondary development track and better initial thump
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Much improved thump on Ukie for all
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Luke , I looked close, I do agree that it was not a desired shift and that yes it was About 30 miles at your longitude . I first was just looking at the initial thump as that is a big piece for the accumulation puzzle imo for those in SNE , and especially for CT folks If we are counting on a lobe here or there or a ULL stretching East just in time it’s prob not High confidence unless multiple models show that sort of a occurrence
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We need to see euro and at some point drunk uncle close the gap
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The 850 low went from far SW CT To a S end of Nantucket . Very rare track .
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It gives a better front end thump down to west central CT
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Crush job tickles wolfie with 6” big hit Pike north for C and E SNE Screwgies PVD Ri south into E CT
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Gfs has a better thump for CT but...
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And ask the goofus to maintain its Collective hold On hope
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There is still a chance
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3km ...um ok ... looks sexy
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850 low and temps was a shade North of 18z , and thus snow was as well in N mass As low makes closest pass at 15z Saturday , you can see 0c temp is at route 2 on 0z nam and pike at 18z nam
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Nam gonna need a harder right turn
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Let’s see what the freakin nam decides To do here for entertainment
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My young weenie spirit was almost broke growing up there . Seeing dec 92 give me 3” and March 93 flip to rain and leave a 3” glacier . I was basically defeated lol
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In SE mass yes you likely will be , all available guidance and forecasts say yes . Now, forecasts at 48 hours aren’t iron clad so there is a chance you can catch a bit but changes gotta show relatively fast
