STILL N OF PIKE

Ray will like this but I can see a path for the ole Merrimack valley screwgie with a nice cut off in precip around Boston on progressive euro if confluence is aggressive .

I underestimated the ability for confluence to keep shredding this

So weak sauce thanks to attenuation/ confluence ?

Reminds me a little of the shining

Can we update the title of this thread to add that Scott’s sanity rests in the hands of this event and things don’t look great

WPC probs updated last hour clearly favor elevations of SNE on 4”+ prob which is not necessarily news but they are centered S of NH line

Were those years overly dry during winter ?

I was more just trying to keep Kevin’s pants from coming off

Near 50 , feels great outside . Snow melting fast in Sunny spots . Fine by me - not like I cross country ski in town

Geezus man

It’s almost always the wife, hate to see it Happened to our Boston native now in Simsbury

Unless it bumps north another 60 or so ?

Greta is Coming for him in the 2030’s

So it’s clear we have to Sacrifice Dave

I wonder if NW RI is a sneaky spot for this event assuming it comes far enough north

Storm is just sort of getting crushed ESE as confluence picks up over SE Canada on many of these runs . The mid levels open up as it traverses upper mid Atlantic to S of New England on many The 0z euro seemed like a best case and actually strengthened mid levels last moment and sort of pivoted slowed as it did I would say it would take a small miracle to get Maine good with this unless confluence is way over modeled

For Friday for NNE looks like it could be a challenge to see where the snows fall . Models seem torn between a mostly Maine deal from Sunday River east and North to euro and nam showing accumulations much further south . HREF is basically Wildcat to Sunday River east and north in toward Baxter state park

I can’t argue with your meteorological reasoning , and I know when many pros post like this they fully comprehend the limited probability at these leads times but they have the skill to identify why it makes sense and it’s a intelligent discussion that is certainly warranted , I just think the general audience has or still takes away (bc they want to) a mistaken amount of confidence bc they don’t comprehend that ..even when it’s always couched in “feeling good or higher confidence “ they may conveniently forget that is *Relative confidence* to what can be forecast at these lead times .

You strike me an optimist .. Since nobody in the world has shown much skill forecasting more than 3 weeks away I would always temper expectations when things looks good 15 days away I know you know this and I know you know meteorology but sometimes I get the idea that you are much more confident at extends leads than warrants . But quite honestly that could also be semantics and me reading into your posts incorrectly . I do think a exceptional period is possible , and I believe if things did ever line up and we got a prolonged active NE trough the ceiling is extremely high

I’m certainly not buying a multi week very good pattern for mid Feb to Early March , I’d say sure it’s possible..but more likely to me Is a favorable 10-12 day period if things break semi decently . It’s often sunny in Philadelphia at Day 14+ and folks like to extrapolate that into their ideal multi week goodness, extremely skeptical of anything very good hanging around that long , gonna need a lot to fall in place for a prolonged period Based on climo CNE and NNE have best chance (obviously) (Dentrite North) but also as long as we are active there will be a shot that SNE gets to average with good timing (NW of 95) and doesn’t need a very good multi week pattern to do that Bos to me is a very long shot

WPC has this as a S of Rte2 system that favors most QPF SE mass and cape with a low 125 miles S of BM Monday @12z but E flow enhancing elevations S of rte 2 looks like tons of E flow into SE mass but not quite cold enough as probs for winter precip above .25 QPF is 10-30% for S SNE with Catskills , berks orh 30-50% probs for greater than .25 of winter QPF should update in few hours

Crushed Se mass buried

Well within the goalposts

What Mets are “debating “ this ? Besides the band Tool (enema) Turn it up

36 in Lexington , 33 in KBED still plain rain meh