STILL N OF PIKE

Glad he kept his pants on so far Do models typically get a good handle on confluence by 72 hours , and is it now more about Perturbations in W coast ridging and SW strength that determines mid level track / temps or do we know exactly which is weighing more

Def agree here, instead of focusing on periods that aren’t very forecastable, the period you mentioned has shown some potential as we get closer to it. After that ..maybe we can hit 70 around Feb 7 give or take , seems like the ceiling is there for a couple days of a very warm period , thou who knows how that will break and or if NE corner is immune to it . Not much more than a coin flips faith in mid February turning out better than average pattern but there is obviously cause for optimism , esp as long as model agreement doesn’t delay it

All work and no play makes scooter a dull boy

Good trends tonite

Decent spread on euro ens Centered 125 miles east of 0z ens for Monday 1pm. More progressive members

Looks like Garbage . Let’s see ensembles

Ray will like this but I can see a path for the ole Merrimack valley screwgie with a nice cut off in precip around Boston on progressive euro if confluence is aggressive .

I underestimated the ability for confluence to keep shredding this

So weak sauce thanks to attenuation/ confluence ?

Reminds me a little of the shining

Can we update the title of this thread to add that Scott’s sanity rests in the hands of this event and things don’t look great

WPC probs updated last hour clearly favor elevations of SNE on 4”+ prob which is not necessarily news but they are centered S of NH line

Were those years overly dry during winter ?

I was more just trying to keep Kevin’s pants from coming off

Near 50 , feels great outside . Snow melting fast in Sunny spots . Fine by me - not like I cross country ski in town

Geezus man

It’s almost always the wife, hate to see it Happened to our Boston native now in Simsbury

Unless it bumps north another 60 or so ?

Greta is Coming for him in the 2030’s

So it’s clear we have to Sacrifice Dave

I wonder if NW RI is a sneaky spot for this event assuming it comes far enough north

Storm is just sort of getting crushed ESE as confluence picks up over SE Canada on many of these runs . The mid levels open up as it traverses upper mid Atlantic to S of New England on many The 0z euro seemed like a best case and actually strengthened mid levels last moment and sort of pivoted slowed as it did I would say it would take a small miracle to get Maine good with this unless confluence is way over modeled

For Friday for NNE looks like it could be a challenge to see where the snows fall . Models seem torn between a mostly Maine deal from Sunday River east and North to euro and nam showing accumulations much further south . HREF is basically Wildcat to Sunday River east and north in toward Baxter state park

I can’t argue with your meteorological reasoning , and I know when many pros post like this they fully comprehend the limited probability at these leads times but they have the skill to identify why it makes sense and it’s a intelligent discussion that is certainly warranted , I just think the general audience has or still takes away (bc they want to) a mistaken amount of confidence bc they don’t comprehend that ..even when it’s always couched in “feeling good or higher confidence “ they may conveniently forget that is *Relative confidence* to what can be forecast at these lead times .

You strike me an optimist .. Since nobody in the world has shown much skill forecasting more than 3 weeks away I would always temper expectations when things looks good 15 days away I know you know this and I know you know meteorology but sometimes I get the idea that you are much more confident at extends leads than warrants . But quite honestly that could also be semantics and me reading into your posts incorrectly . I do think a exceptional period is possible , and I believe if things did ever line up and we got a prolonged active NE trough the ceiling is extremely high