Matthew70

Congratulations! Enjoy because they grow fast. My two kiddos are now 22 (boy)19 (girl).

This forum is the best of any of them. Everyone gives sound reasoning & terrific discussion as to why. Everyone is welcoming & helps others learn. There is no negativity & winter cancel thankfully. Yeah the pattern has not been the best for snow in TN but when has there ever been a snowy December in TN? Yet many places have had a lot of snow already. As Carver said it’s been a well below average December. Many days have been like a January day. December has been a win in my book. It’s felt like Christmas! I do hope everyone is having a great Christmas season & wish everyone a Merry Christmas!

I’m just not sure why so many are doom & gloom when it’s only December 21st. Many act like December is supposed to be a snowy month. Webb along with others I believe overthink forecasting. It will be interesting how it changes with AI taking over a lot of the forecasting.

Webb is knowledgeable but changes his mind all the time. He’s more negative than he is positive. Seems many on other forums cancel winter before it’s even begun.

That’s only 3 weeks into winter. Too many people are way to negative & expectations of winter are over the top.

That to me says we are in a sweet spot. Gulf lows come on down!

Uh oh. Gonna upset those winter canceled peeps.lol!

I will say that storm front yesterday was very impressive with the thunder and the driving rains. That wind was brutal.

What I’ve always seen is a -AO & -NAO always trump a -PNA. EPO is not as big of player when the other two are -.

Well gotta say. This line of rain & storms is slow moving & dumping.

You & I are close in age.

There is winners & losers in any pattern as we all know. Even with the Chinook here in TN it’s been a cold December so far. At least it’s felt & looked on some days like a wintry Christmas. I think I saw where Chicago was off to a great start for snow? Maybe it was the snowiest in some time? Even ND has had a lot of snow. The pattern will change, and there will be winners & losers again with the reshuffle. I just think many have forgotten winter has officially not even started for most. We’ve been cold enough so far in December to actually have snow showers & dustings for many. Anytime you get snow in December is a huge bonus. January is usually dry & cold. February is the usual timeframe for Middle & West TN to receive snow. Anything in January is a 50/50 shot. Crazy to think higher odds for here are in February. So it’s warming up some, which I for one hope it hangs around till day after Christmas. That way I don’t freeze taking down the outside decorations.

There is going to be a pattern reshuffle eventually. As far as part of January being warm. We always have at least one week of warm weather in January. Also known as the January thaw. Maybe we’re having it in December instead. People need to remind themselves that the biggest snows for Tennessee usually occur in February. Especially for West and Middle Tennessee.

It’s truly unbelievable that people say they want snow, but they seem to be more happier with the warmer temps. I call them trolls. If winter is really over like they say, why are they even chatting in a winter forum?

Thank you! Yes hopefully the flu shot will help me some if I get it. Having the damaged lungs from Covid. I need to avoid any flu. I know vaccines can be a dirty word for many but I have to take any precautions I can.

Get better soon. My wife has been battling a cough congestion over a month now. She never gets sick. The flu from all accounts is brutal this year.

I remember awhile back the wx service out of Nashville wrote how a -AO meant cold for these parts.

Any idea how many days this -WPO has existed?

Absolutely agree & well said. Crazy how many of us love winter months. It’s truly a special time of year. It’s great smelling the firewood burning in the crisp cool fall. Nothing like a snow cover under a full moon. Plus it’s freaking great to have no insects!!!! Here is to hoping we all get plenty of snow soon!

Well said. Love learning in this forum. I had never heard of the chinook effect till here. Really good stuff! Thank You!

It’s amazing how if a model shows a winter storm 15 days out so many will say ah that’s not happening. Yet when a model shows dry & warm they take it as 100% happening. Negativity is rampant in many forums. Yeah it sucks having no snow in December but when did December become the only month of winter? I missed the memo that says after December winter is over. I know for Middle & West TN February has most of the top 10 snows. December is running way below average & we still hear winter is over. Good gracious.

All these teleconnections can cause headaches & burn out. It’s like playing old maid over & over getting the maid. Lol.

No reason to apologize, sir. You are a wealth of information and fun to learn.

True. -AO are known to make this area cold. Just curious how the -WPO affects us. Add with that a MJO in phase 8. Good gracious all these teleconnections. Was nice years ago when it never was even discussed. Seems today’s times are so confusing. Simple days of forecasting are long past.

What is the average time frame for one to remain negative? Wonder what effects it will have going into spring. Also with a -NAO wonder what effects it will have.