MikeB_01

Temp profile looks good here. .

Look at that 31.5 bullseye in Erie .

It’s pretty expansive. Though it totally depends on the warm layer aloft. We know the surface-925 will be plenty cold. Even if the 850 level is 33 for a little, I think it is very brief. We have a deepening ULL with heavy rates and it will cause that column to cool quickly. .

Woah. .

GFS? .

I just think this is where met intuition / experience comes in ahead of modeling. The discussions are full of comments about the rate of evaporative cooling. Even if we sleet, it should be brief and then we should be thumping again.

Honestly, i didn't think the RGEM was bad. I saw the sleet show up, but the column cooled fast enough that Im not worried. Awesome rates on that run.

Me neither. Especially that wide spread. Now that is definitely the high end. That is the max. But I’ll take a chance. .

Beautiful deform band on that run.

The biggest uncertainty is the TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) and just how much of a SLR reduction we`ll receive. Latest 00z NAM Nest suggests a warm nose of 1-2C at 850mb in the trowal, while other models suggest a little colder. If this were to occur, snow ratios would be greatly reduced if sleet becomes mixed, or even a brief period of freezing rain. However, at this time, it does appear this is the warm outlier. Given the other models are colder and the combination of evaporational and dynamic cooling associated with the steady/heavy precip band, the current snowfall forecast assumes little to no melting. If the warm solution were to verify, we can easily knock off a few inches of snowfall.. but will still receive accumulating snow as the warmest warm air shifts away quickly. This is from the forecast discussion this morning. Definitely considering the NAM, but clearly marking it as the warm outlier.

Another observation, NWS probably isn't putting much stock into the path/idea the NAM has been taking. NWS Cle hasn't even issued anything but a hazardous weather outlook for most counties. They obviously don't think the heaviest snow will set up over their area.

So you're saying there's a chance...

09z SREFs back up to 7.5.

There a nice post from MAG in the Central Forum yesterday. He doesn't buy the expanse of the warm air that the NAM is showing. At least i think that is what he was saying. I think his post is still a popular post from yesterday so everyone can check it out.

6-10" bad? Granted some of that is sleet. But i don't know if i would call it awful.

NAM looks pretty similar run to run at the mid and upper levels. Bullseye over cleveland

WPXI this morning showing no mixing. Straight snow for the duration

Honestly, that HRRR run is about as good as it gets for us. The dry slot gets close, but not over us. The deform band (with awesome rates) sets up over us. Good juju

Good morning Weenies. HRRR has us off to a great 12z suite. Lets keep it rolling.

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00z Ukie is solid.

but yes we could use a slight east shift.

Canadian is great. near a foot for everyone.

Getting close. 24-36 is good time to start looking at the higher res models.