Pityflakes

Does anyone have a DCA sounding for precip onset time? Is this a cold chasing precip situation? Or are we expecting to wetbulb down pretty quick after precip starts? Surface looks warm.

We'll be nowcasting this one till the bitter end.

Ha. Meant to say have NOT pulled the trigger... Posted this just before they did, apparently.

Not sure what exactly is LWX's criteria is for a WWA but I'm a little surprised they have not pulled the trigger for the DC metro (or at least south of the Potomac) given (1) upside potential of an inch+, (2) timing (morning commute), (3) cold ground/road temps at onset, and (4) first event of the season.

Richmond is the new Westminster

Came in here for this. Haven't been following each run and assume it hasn't been consistent, but interesting and not crazy evolution as depicted. Cross-polar flow immediately before, southern stream system (from the trop pacific?!) transversing the lower 48 and with mb digging behind?

A left turning major into Charleston would be...problematic. BUT, that solution is based on the persistent seasonal 500mb west coast ridge finally breaking down and transiting across the whole of the lower 48 at exactly the right time to bring this in. Along w/ a fortuitous Canadian surface high moving in to cut off the weakness left by the retreating Bermuda high. Long way to go for this one. That being said, the GFS has been hinting at a pattern change and raising 500mb heights on the east coast for a while now, which would open the door for something tropical to reach the mainland. But it also keeps punting that change to Day 14-15 so who knows. Kind of feels like winter, waiting for an advertised pattern change that never seems to materialize.

cell over burke looks, um, interesting.

GFS hinting at a homegrown spin up tucking into NC/VA coast next week? Probably a phantom.

Need a westerly component at the surface, and some mixing, stat. if DCA is gonna make it to 100

can confirm. Where'd that come from?

woah big thunder/lightning out of nowhere in that ffx county "cell"

pityflakes

Sleet in W. Springfield, but w/ 6 inches on the ground and more on the way later tonight who can complain?!

So not as bright as Polaris then?