Pityflakes

A left turning major into Charleston would be...problematic. BUT, that solution is based on the persistent seasonal 500mb west coast ridge finally breaking down and transiting across the whole of the lower 48 at exactly the right time to bring this in. Along w/ a fortuitous Canadian surface high moving in to cut off the weakness left by the retreating Bermuda high. Long way to go for this one. That being said, the GFS has been hinting at a pattern change and raising 500mb heights on the east coast for a while now, which would open the door for something tropical to reach the mainland. But it also keeps punting that change to Day 14-15 so who knows. Kind of feels like winter, waiting for an advertised pattern change that never seems to materialize.

cell over burke looks, um, interesting.

GFS hinting at a homegrown spin up tucking into NC/VA coast next week? Probably a phantom.

Need a westerly component at the surface, and some mixing, stat. if DCA is gonna make it to 100

can confirm. Where'd that come from?

woah big thunder/lightning out of nowhere in that ffx county "cell"

pityflakes

Sleet in W. Springfield, but w/ 6 inches on the ground and more on the way later tonight who can complain?!

So not as bright as Polaris then?

This. Can we please shelve the "surge is baked in because it used to be a Cat 5" myth. Which as far as I can tell isn't based on anything other than people invoking Katrina. Seems like surge is actually way more complicated and difficult to predict, but appears much more sensitive to topography, fetch, wind direction and duration, etc. Wind speed of course matters (an actual 140/150 mph cane at landfall is going to push a lot of water, but those extreme impacts are localized to the actual eye wall), but "historical" wind speed/pressure of a storm is less relevant. ETA: I'm not downplaying the impact of Milton or suggesting it was a "bust" somehow. But rather I'm suggesting that the surge impacts played out exactly like one would expect from a robust Cat 2/3 given approach angle and topography.

Heavy ponding alert inbound

This is the banter thread?

Yikes. I think this likely exceeds Charlie in the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area. May actually be the zone of highest realized surge.

Obviously too early but I'd be breathing a sign of relief in Tampa this am based on weakening and track trends. Even if they catch the eye wall, a broad eye of a Cat 2/3 struggling w/ dry air/structure isn't going to produce a devastating surge w/ a mostly offshore flow. Surge will be more wind than pressure driven; could see Siesta Key and areas south hitting the max potential though of 10-15 feet.

Nobody likes the Feb 1-2 timeframe? Seems like the 500mb energy swinging through as depicted on the GFS might pop something. I have no idea about necessary cold though.