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Chicago Storm

Professional Forecaster
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  1. Ah, alright. Can still sort of say the same though. The trend has been on the Euro as well QPF wise the past several runs. Shunt east of the better deformation precip, and a drying trend too.
  2. Given we’ve seen this trend for over a day now and we continue to approach the event start, would have liked to have seen some reversal for the 0z suite, after the 18z suite stopped the bleeding. Instead we got the opposite, and things have continued to trend worse. Game, set & match.
  3. Given the look of the rest of 0z guidance (Including the GDPS), it’s probably safe to toss the GFS/GEFS…Unless some other guidance shifts that way, or the GFS trends away from the idea. .
  4. Yea, it has its moment about once or twice a winter when it’ll have a clue in our region, but outside of that it’s definitely not all that useful. .
  5. 0z UKMET was probably the worse, for everyone, out of the 0z suite. Much weaker and further east. .
  6. Indeed it did. It actually had the opposite trend of the 0z NAM/RGEM/ICON. Main trough was less positive tilt, and the main was was a bit faster around the base of the trough. .
  7. if anyone was hoping the 0z OP NAM would lead the way with progress back in a positive direction... my condolences.
  8. It has a lot to do with a wave that rounds the trough and amplifies while in the Plains, with the effects carrying through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. This leads to the elongated SLP it has across those areas as well, and the further north look as well...Before the whole thing finally takes off across Michigan/Ontario.
  9. That was always expected to be there, but the evolution of it has changed with time.
  10. This is a good loop to see some of the changes that have occurred within guidance over the past few days. Notice the changes with the lobe around the Hudson, the lead wave in the main through becoming more amped, and changes with the ridging near the East Coast and along the West Coast.
  11. Likely to see additional shifting. The 18z NAM is continuing the SE trend, for example. (Edit: Not so much in the end).
  12. hopefully you’re heading elsewhere after arrival. .
  13. 0z ECMWF follows the current trend that the rest of the 0z suite featured.
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