That slight risk for this afternoon/evening definitely looks overdone.
While there's sufficient instability and moisture, shear is greatly lacking. Can already see the effects of that issue with the current activity in the DVN CWA being very outflow dominant.
A marginal risk for an isolated severe t'storm threat would have been sufficient.
On the flip-side, what a forecast change from what looked like a dry day just 12 hours ago. MCV magic...