Chicago Storm

well, in the end the timing improved, but the track still lead to a doa situation. the convection across the southern plains the night before ended up further south, leading to a further south track of the potent mcv.

Yesterday qualifies as a serial derecho.

Topped out at 92° at ORD and at MDW today. ...2025 90°+ Day Tally... 3 - ORD 3 - MDW 3 - RFD 3 - DPA 3 - PWK 3 - ARR 3 - LOT 2 - UGN

tomorrow trended doa quickly for around here, with a quick trend towards poor timing of the mcv passage. shame. we've reached the point where things ramped up for a month of quality activity from mid-june through mid-july last year, after a similarly slow start like this year. it doesn't look like a turn-around is in the cards just yet.

personally, it would be hard for me to call anything about that convective feedback. a solidly well defined and strong MCV. the question to me is, will it be boom or bust. we've seen those go both directions over the years.

which day?

Topped out at 92° at ORD and at 91° MDW yesterday. Warmest of the season to date at ORD. ...2025 90°+ Day Tally... 2 - ORD 2 - MDW 2 - RFD 2 - DPA 2 - PWK 2 - ARR 2 - LOT 1 - UGN

The activity that moved through parts of the metro area yesterday afternoon over-performed expectations on what was an isolated/low quality potential day. The main severe t’storm just missed home by about 2 miles or so, but I took a drive down the road into Batavia and encountered 2.00” hail and ~60MPH winds. After it passed, I drove another block or so down the road and found some 2.50” hail stones laying in the grass. This wasn’t a true big hail, as it was just spiky smaller hail (See pics). The worst of it all was in the subdivision to the east of where I sat, where 70-90MPH downburst winds occurred with 2.50” hail as well. I drove through this area post-storm, and there were hail piles everywhere, high quality hail fog, shredded trees, and widespread significant tree damage.

you still have a few more years worth of debt for 8/10/20.

minus the late may period, spring was great.

LOT confirmed 1 tornado in their CWA from Tuesday's event (May 20th). 1 tornado in IL. The 2025 LOT CWA tornado count is now 18. Edit: Also, a landspout tornado was confirmed on May 14th in the IL portion of the LOT CWA, which has been added to the 2025 count above.

Also, add in that the area it had originated from had missed out on activity with the event on the previous day. With the resurging dry/drought conditions lately, it just happened to be a perfect situation that the severe t'storm activity had collapse in that exact area.

spartman broke character? i didn't have that on my bingo card. but, i didn't have a dust storm on it either.

Friday's dust storm was quite an experience... Never thought I'd ever report a DS at ORD. Peak conditions... ORD: DS 1/2SM G50MPH MDW: +DS 1/4SM G60MPH Info... •The dust storm warning for Cook County was only the second ever issued for the county. •It was the first ever dust storm warning issued for downtown Chicago. •Per Frank Wachowski, the last dust storm of this severity in the metro area was way back on May 10th, 1934.

ORD had a high temp of 94° on Thursday, which broke the record high maximum temp for the date of 91° (1962).

Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 94° on May 15th, which broke the record high maximum temperature for the date of 91° (1962).

+DS 1/4SM G60MPH at MDW.

and then they go with a tornado watch, which is comical.

only watch possible?

Yes, it hit at least 93.

Yep. That’s a game changer right there. Large hail/wind threat looks tops today. Tor threat is still pretty low, as spreads are too high around here. This isn’t Colorado…. 92/65 isn’t gonna cut it. But, now that I said that…

edit your original post to change the title.

To add the the above, if the Euro, which is sort of alone in with the idea right now, has any clue... Things could be more interesting southward. Check out the significant dry line/bulge it depicts pressing across N and C IL. If frontal convergence can tighten up a bit more, and if that scenario were to be more realistic and gain support, then...

But, it really doesn't check more boxes, in a way. Capping, lack of frontal convergence (roughly south of the IL/WI border latitude), and the fact that the best dynamics are lifting further north into the Midwest/Western Great Lakes, are all significant concerns. The SPC overlooked concerns with that previous event and went with a balls to the wall approach...and failed. There is zero reason to do that once again this time across areas that are clearly more conditional. Highest coverage of activity will most definitely be across MN/NE IA/WI, though I think quality will be a bit more in question there. South of there, it's really too conditional overall. S Wisconsin may have the greatest shot of the most interesting activity, as there may be a more optimal overlap of everything there. South of there, sure, the environment is great across IL, but the three aforementioned issues will be problematic.

or it could be just because it just doesn’t look all that great and they actually realize it this time.