Chicago Storm

It is rotating in the mid levels. .

I'm pondering going, but haven't gotten the will to do so yet.

There definitely could be some supercell structures. The best severe potential will likely end up between I-74 and I-72 in W-C IL

The area to watch today is definitely across C IL, as a few others have mentioned. An MCV that has been moving eastward along the IA/MO border this morning will continue eastward across C IL this afternoon and evening. The biggest question for today has been cloud cover, which had been locked in place across the main focus area. However, more recently there has been a growing wedge of clearing pushing northward across NE MO and is now progressing into W IL as well. If that holds, coupled with the MCV and decent instability/moisture/shear, could have a solid threat across C IL this afternoon and evening. We’ll see how it progresses... .

Yea, I’m not sure why they didn’t have a marginal that far north originally on the day 3, and really have no idea why they haven’t brought it north on the day 2. Depending on how things continue to look, might even need a slight risk across E IA/NW-W IL. Best activity will end up west of here, but activity might still have an isolated severe potential when it gets into this area.

Impressive mixing occurring across portions of MN/IA/WI/IL, even more-so than modeled. 90’s have even made it into SW WI. .

The fun begins next weekend. Last Friday, this past Tue/Wed and this upcoming Mon were just the pre-game. The first week of May had been the original target, but per usual it was delayed a week.

time for you to move along... .

Again, the pattern has changed. .

The pattern has already changed. .

Just snuck into a severe t’storm warning here with these virga shows/t’storms. Gusted to 40-50mph. .

.

It occluded right over Castroville.

Couplet ramping up as it approaches the metro.

2-3” hail. .

San Antonio is going to get rolled. .

Definitely not. .

ORD tied the record of 87 today. .

Solid lake breeze/back door front... IMG_5410.mov

Looks like a shot at isolated to perhaps scattered t’storms in the area overnight/early tomorrow morning, as the disturbance currently in the S Plains moves through. If any activity does occur, (severe or not) should have hail potential given the modeled instability and lapse rates. .

Significant capping in that sounding. .

.

Per Bill Snyder at WGN, it is now the driest spring on record to date for Chicago since 1915. .

Overall warm yes, but definitely not dry. .

The drought out west, which is currently more significant than it was at the same time in late April 2012, is really the only thing comparable at this point. So that’s not much to go off of. .