Blue Ridge

1 minute ago, BillT said:

the pattern thread is full of negative banter and cliff jumping, that is the point for me the models are discussed into the ground and the real weather is almost never mentioned......

define "real weather"...

RE: Grant Williams, many mock drafts, which fall somewhere between crabgrass and 384 hr GFS on the usefulness scale, project him going in the low-20s and Schofield in the upper-20s. I could see a team like Portland, who seems to be perpetually short on depth at wing, using a pick on him. His jumper isn't bad; he has good form. He's 36% from three (9/25), which seems to be a result of utilization more than lack of ability.

His body and game reminds me somewhat of Draymond Green at Michigan State. Compare Dray's senior season to Grant's current season; the numbers are eerily similar. (Data from Sports Reference CBB)

50 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I guess it's upslope related here. It's almost graupel falling, a sleety snow.

Based on the streamers showing up on KMRX, that's likely the case.

Rain/snow mix in town right now as the back edge approaches. 

...annnnd it's gone.

Bad day to forget my Kestrel handheld. Something evil just unloaded overhead. Roof shaking wind gusts. Easily 45+ MPH at low elevation.

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have been watching the d10-15, because I would really like to see some extended winter.  That said, what the models are spitting out inside of d10 is crazy.  The first is the 12z GFS actual surface temp map(not departures).  The second is the 0z Euro departure maps.   There are -61 departures over the Plains on the Euro op.  We saw this a few days ago.  It would take only one coastal of any variety to send that stuff south.

 

Just for kicks and giggles...

Average low in Fort Dodge, IA (approx. dead center of the -48 anomaly area on the Euro) is 8.2. -61 departure equates to -52.8. 

Peak gust appears to be around 37 m/s, with peak sustained wind of roughly 33 m/s. That's approx. 74 mph.

Wind is whipping in Greeneville proper as well. 

The link to Camp Creek Tower observations, for those who would like to follow along:

https://oculus.atdd.noaa.gov/campcreek/

12 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Rams also got some help. Think the NFL wanted the TV markets in New England and LA for the Super Bowl? I believe both are in the 6 or 7 biggest in the nation.  

Boston has dipped to #9, but LA is #2. Compare that to KC (#32) and New Orleans (#50). 

While we are on the subject: Knoxville is now #60, while the Tri-Cities have dipped to #102. Nashville is #27; Memphis #51; Chatt #83; Jackson #177.

Back to football: the no-call DPI was atrocious, as was the roughing penalty on KC. I had no skin in the AFCCG, but was really pulling for the Saints. Count me out on Super Bowl viewing.

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Was thinking the Euro Control looked similar something we'd been talking about. Well, the Control is mostly rain, but the system it shows at day day 10+ kind of looks like the Jan 1998 storm:

Almost 21 years to the day. 

Yes, I'll take one 1/27/98 redux, please. 

50+ DBZ over Bulls Gap right now. The back edge looks wild. 

 

6 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

These are the biggest flakes I’ve seen in a few years.

Agreed. A slushy 1/2" has accumulated here. 

Good moderate burst of snow at the office currently. Huge flakes. 

14 hours ago, John1122 said:

Can't find a map but the 1-28-98 event saw 21 inches fall at Wise with a max depth of 16 inches. Missing data at Mountain City with 9 inches on the ground 2 days after the event.  Erwin has 9 inches falling with 3.05 inches of QPF. No idea if that snow amount is accurate. It also shows 9 inches on the ground the day that 9 inches fell, 6 inches on the ground the next day. Missing data in Abingdon with 10 inches of snow falling recorded.  Tri recorded 2.3 inches of precip but doesn't have snowfall listed/missing data. Elizabethton recorded 18 inches.  5 inches at Gatlinburg. 26 inches at Mt LeConte.

Lots of missing data for NE Tn sites is common for the 90s. Elizabethton looks like it has the least missing data with 18 inches of snow recorded on around 1.9 inches of qpf.

I lived in Erwin at the time. Though I was young, I remember the storm vividly. My dad is 6'3" and snow depth topped his knees. I recall him measuring "over two feet" with a yardstick in the aftermath; IIRC, this was several hours after snow had ended. Bear in mind, my parents' home is at ~2000' but in a favored area just west of Unaka Mtn. That location is often the beneficiary of the "squeezing" that occurs during events with a proper trajectory. NW flow events were always fun as a kid.

Some in Limestone Cove and Flag Pond (~3500'+) claim to this day they saw four feet from this storm. Just conjecture on my part, but they likely aren't exaggerating much, if any.

A new record of 75 has been set at TRI as of 1425. 

TYS has thus far topped out at 73. Gusting to 38 MPH as of 1535.

On 12/27/2018 at 9:28 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, I need to get over there.  Just about an hour from my house.  Has to be impressive.  

On a side note unrelated, the mountains have a decent amount of snow on them and rain falling tonight.  I suspect that some of these mountain streams will get out of their banks.  Places like the Doe River worry me the most.  LeConte had 16" of snow last Friday...so that is going somewhere as well.

It's 15-20 minutes from my front door. We'll set up an AmWx TN Valley meet-up! 

Suddenly got dark outside. Impressive anvils for December. Looks like spring with clear blue skies east, dark gray west. No thunder audible or lightning visible, but I have a feeling we’ll be putting the “thunder in winter” anecdote to the test again...

Pretty amazing what deep snow pack can do.........  We have a dying air mass and areas with deep snow pack seemed to manage to get down into the low single digits to the mid teens in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.   I am always amazed what snow on the ground can do to temps!

Freezing fog has formed a thin layer of ice on cars.

Incredibly thick fog has developed within the last hour. Temp is hovering around freezing. This may spell trouble in the morning.

@nrgjeff KU or Michigan should be #1, but my money is on Duke retaking the top spot. No questioning that the Dukie bias is real this year...

15 minutes ago, waltrip said:

I picked up 1-2 inches here in Greeneville night. Think it was closer to 2 inches. Hard to get an accurate measurement with the previous day’s snow underneath. However last night’s snow was more than what we got the day before so I will take it! Nothing like a pretty snow to get your day started. 

My wife said the exact same thing, lol. I measured 2.5" of new snow here, and it's still coming down. Just enough to excuse working from home today!

Blunder and John, I share your disappointment in lack of snow. Purely from a scientific standpoint, this storm was fascinating, and I believe there are valuable lessons to be learned. From an amateur/hobbyist viewpoint, such lessons are invaluable in analyzing model output and filtering through the noise. In particular, the hi-res models scored a coup with the enhancement shown in Sullivan and Hawkins Counties and the shadow shown in southern Washington, Greene, and Carter counties.

Our microclimates are simultaneously infuriating and enthralling.

After watching UK’s loss to Seton Hall, I believe Auburn and UT to be the class of the SEC in 18/19. Point Guard U looked completely lost at the position yesterday. Of course, Florida will be tough as always, and Clanga will make some noise in conference play. Look out for LSU or Arkansas as a possible sleeper.

Do we have anyone here from Mt Carmel? At 1145, MRX relayed a report from 1 WNW Mt Carmel of 11”. If this has ground truth, that same spot would be well over a foot by now.

Seeing photos from the northern part of the county and it’s a different world than here. Also seeing that there are several accidents along 81.

I forget which model/run it was, but I made a comment about it wanting to wipe the 81 corridor off the map. As it turns out, that was somewhat accurate...lol.