Blue Ridge

MRX afternoon disco:

Quote

The highly anticipated and advertised weekend system will begin to
take place on Friday with cyclogenesis occurring along the natural
baroclinic boundary of the northwestern Gulf Coast. Isentropic lift
will increase throughout the day with an E-W oriented boundary
stretching along the northern Gulf Coast. Precipitation will remain
to the south and west of the forecast area on Friday but cloud cover
will increase throughout the day. Expect highs will climb up into
the 40s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)...
High pressure over the Southeast and eastern states will be
retreating as a deep trough over the Southern Rockies Friday night
moves into the southern Plains Saturday. Lower pressure will move
along the Gulf Coast Saturday and Saturday night and then is
expected to move off the east coast Sunday night. Light rain will
spread northeast Friday night from the southwest to the northeast
with increasing southwest flow aloft. On Saturday there will be
enough cold dry air aloft for some sleet across northern sections
of the area as moisture will be slow to advect into this area.
Another upper level trough will drop out of central Canada late
Saturday. Models are increasing precipitation amounts some
Saturday night and Sunday which could increase snowfall amounts in
the higher elevations. As the surface low moves up the east coast
it will deepen and pull more cold air into the forecast area. The
lower elevations will get rain Saturday and Saturday night while
higher elevations change over to snow by early Sunday. As the low
moves farther east and northeast expect the at least the northern
valley areas to change over to snow Sunday night and continue
into Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 30s higher
elevations to the upper 30s to lower 40s lower elevations. Several
inches of snow are expected across the higher eastern Tennessee
mountains and across the higher elevations of southwest Virginia.
The speed and track of the system is still somewhat uncertain
which will affect precipitation types and amounts.

15 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

After looking over everything, I believe the Euro is having some problems on how to handle the transfer to the coastal. When it begins it's transfer over N AL, it splits the low into two distinct pieces #1 due North to the middle TN/KY border, #2 ESE into GA heading for the coast. The transfer should have been more smoothly. Due to this odd scenario, it shoots the 850s way up over East TN responding to the #1 piece. A smoother transfer and this would have been an even more major storm for the board. Sorry for the long post.

 

 

Great catch. This may well be the root cause of much of the IP/ZR depicted as well.

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Of coarse I am right here. Would take much though.

Classic Valley warm nose. 850 low will make or break everything SW of 81/40. 

Forgive the brief IMBYism, but models are once again honing in on Greene Co. as the battleground, with a gradient of >6" to upwards of 1' from west to east. Classic. 

For much of East TN, this may well mirror Dec 18-19, 2009. 

Roughly 0.75" of cement greeted me this AM.

Family in Erwin has 2" with icy roads. I-26 is apparently a mess. 

Hey @John1122, your map isn't showing up on my end. Looks like it's behind a log-in wall. 

Hot off the press: MRX's abbreviated afternoon disco.

For Friday and Saturday, strengthening southwest flow from southern
Plains trough will increase the isentropic lift over the area.
Depending on how fast the precipitation moves into the region, the
precipitation may begin as a mixture of snow and sleet, and then
change to all of rain except possibly for far eastern Tennessee
Mountains.

For Saturday night and Sunday, the jet dynamic forcing for the upper
trough will produce strong omega along and just above the fronto-
genetic slope (around 500mb). Deep synoptic forcing will help cool
the vertical column with precipitation likely changing back to snow
over southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee (especially mountains),
and Smoky Mountains. Main rain (or possibly rain/snow mix) elsewhere.

For Sunday night and Monday, upper dynamics strengthens the
surface/850mb pulling the warm conveyor belt into the northern half
of the area with a deformation zone. This will keep chances of
mainly snowfall going with additional snowfall anticipated. Will
include this potential snowstorm within the HWO.

System pulls out for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions.

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Neighboring WFO in Kentucky, NC and VA have issued winter weather advisories for snow overnight and into tomorrow. Waiting to see if MRX follows suit. Fairly robust wave working through the area over the next 24 hours. Just had a burst pass through that was blinding for about 10 minutes. Hopefully they increase in frequency overnight.

GSP has followed suit with a WWA for border counties >3500 ft. 

MRX has not yet issued the afternoon disco/forecast package, so we should soon know one way or another.

EDIT: There she is. 

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
     Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast
     Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for Russell-Wise.

This system will be the first gulf low/slider for me since relocating to Greeneville. Greene Co. is often a battleground for the Valley warm nose; the December 2009 winter storm serves as a prime example. Greeneville proper received 4", while the westernmost portions of Greene Co. recorded nothing more than token flakes mixed with steady rain. The easternmost Greene Co. mountains recorded upwards of one foot. 

I'm positioned dead center by longitude and slightly south by latitude. Interesting times ahead! 

My god. It's beautiful.

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Regarding the 12z Euro.  Surface low track from the northwestern gulf, to southern GA to off the outer banks of NC is a money track for the TN Valley.  Runs have been going back and forth with the depth of the cold and position of the high so expect more changes in the coming day.   That's the biggest thing missing this run (cold, lol). Hopefully we will revert back to a deeper cold and stronger high while keeping a similar track. 

 

It's what we do in the mid-south, walk the tight rope and hope for the best.

I'll take my chances with that track any day. 

22 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Radar is starting to get interesting for the NE portion of the forum area but I can't help but shake the feeling the back end of the storm is coming too early for snow. It's just 40 all the way up here so the temperature and has a ways to fall in the eastern valley. I'm hoping  you guys in the Tri-Cities see some token flakes.

45 at K0A9 (Elizabethton)
43 at KTRI
43 at KGCY (Greeneville)
41 at KLNP
39 at KVJI (Abingdon)
39 at KTYS

It will be after dark before token flakes are possible. 
 

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Radarscope thinks Wise, VA has switched to snow.  Any one up that way? 

Looks like they did switch briefly!

 

Downsloping winds = dry but useless days.

Sunday night was absolutely wild. We were at a B&B in rural Sevier County and I awoke to the distinctive sound of our well-built structure being tested by extremely strong gusts. At breakfast the following morning, another guest claimed to have measured a gust of 71 mph with his handheld anemometer. Take that for what it's worth. 

I've been under a training snow shower for roughly an hour that has dumped an inch of snow. Absolutely ripping at the moment with gusts to 25 mph.

(FYI: I'm situated higher than Greeneville proper at roughly 1900 ft.)

My goal is to ignore the possibility for snow this weekend until the models (hopefully) lose it and we wind up with cold rain. Why, you ask? Because my fiancee would **** a brick at the thought of snow falling two Saturdays prior to wedding day. 

Constant heavy rain since 7:30 in Greeneville. Radar looks splotchy but it just has not let up. 

Edit: distant thunder now too.

Just now, Windspeed said:

TSJU radar at the airport is now down as well.

Last scan on RadarScope shows 1:34 am. Damn. 

I'm well aware the barrage of negative reaction to @Mountain_Patch's post will be deleted in short order, but IMO, it's deserved and serves to weed out the crazy.

14 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

 

Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. 
http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica

lol

this dude is woke. even throwing in a shoutout to HAM operators. guess there's no damage, guys; HAM operators are still broadcasting.

With the beautiful weather this week, I was able to bike roughly 45 miles. It felt great to be out riding again. Thursday was so warm I was able to wear a tank top without the breeze created by a 30-35 mph downhill stretch numbing me. 

It was felt in East Tennessee as well. It was enough to shake the walls much like a strong wind gust.

I typically lurk the severe weather threads outside of the SE, but I wanted to pop by to say I'm glad JoMo is safe and well. Amazing stories are being told here. I'm certainly bookmarking this thread for future reference.