Blue Ridge

^I thought that was CAPE or SRH at first glance and did a sharp double take

A decent storm signal, but as of now still a 240 hr (well, slightly under) pipe dream.

Much like the addition of lanes to 440, such capital and maintenance expenditures on our roadways do little to tame the natural behaviors of area wildlife (Nissan Altimas).

You say that as if the ongoing black ice satanic panic has concluded

By and large, we are conditioned to avoid Fayetteville if at all possible

As noted, it’s the venerable Holly Springs! Running joke about the town’s reputation for adult activity. Not sure it’s deserved outside of an establishment or two downtown, but then again it’s probably equally as deserving as any suburb in the US

Engaging full weenie mode Updated RAH map overlays (as of 12:57 pm) appear to have gotten a bump. My location jumped from 2-4" x2 Saturday day/night to this: Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 14. Wind chill values as low as zero. North wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

In fairness, I think this happens either way. Upside scenario: mass pileups on Glenwood, cars exploding on Capital Blvd Downside scenario: AmWX march in Southern Wake to protest the bubble created by the Shearon Harris facility

Don’t think of it as caving, think of it as hedging. They make the upside potential clear in their writings.

I’d venture it’s an even mix of mist, sleet, and wispy, flaky non-snow ice right now. Makes me slightly concerned for what’s to come this evening. I’m fearful even .10” of quick accretion along with gusts will spell trouble for some of the taller trees.

The tops of the tallest trees are definitely looking a little heavy - heavier than at the surface, at least. My working theory is the elevation delta is just enough that some droplets that would otherwise reach the surface as sleet or snizzle are liquid (liquid enough) to accumulate as ice.

Mesoscale Discussion 0059 Areas affected...northeast Georgia...western South Carolina...and parts of western North Carolina Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 251757Z - 252200Z SUMMARY...Heavy freezing rain is expected between 19Z and 23Z this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Persistent cold air damming persists in the lee of the Appalachians and into northern Georgia. An expansive area of stratiform rain will overspread this cold air this afternoon and result in moderate to heavy freezing rain. Heavy precipitation rates will likely warm temperatures a few degrees which may limit freezing rain efficiency in areas that are currently 31-32F. However, where temperatures are currently in the 20s, northeast of Atlanta and eastward, expect below freezing temperatures to persist within the wedge. Additionally, a meso-low, analyzed on the 17Z surface chart in east-central Alabama, will move east into central Georgia which will alleviate any chance for erosion of the cold wedge and perhaps reinforce the westerly flow across northern Georgia. As a result, moderate to heavy precipitation with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s will result in significant ice accumulation between 19Z and 23Z from northeast Georgia into western South Carolina and into portions of southeast North Carolina. Given the expectation for relatively efficient ice accretion and QPF of 0.5 to 0.7 inches, expect another 0.25" to 0.5" of ice accretion this afternoon and early evening.

Teaching my 4 y/o how to do a thundersleet dance as we speak

ohhhhhhhh, understood now. Nope, not I! heavier returns = IP, lighter returns = -ZR. 19.8/14

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The what now?

Window rattling sleet in the Springs. 21.2/11.6

Had a few pings on my side of town ~5 mins ago. 25.5 here.

Precip is hitting the ground with 25/-6 at RDU It matters dude

Cliff diving thread is over yonder

Can also thank the satanic panic-esque reaction to nuclear decades ago for lack of viable off-ramps from coal usage.

Bottomed out at 25.5 around noon. Now 26.4/-0.9. Consistently gusting 15-20 mph. Holly Springs, NC

Pour one out for our friends in northern Mississippi. This is a disaster in the making. (Ignore the header - this is total ice)

I think it's ISW vs WSW. The WSW text for western counties includes up to 1/2" of ice and 1-3" of sleet/snow. If trends continue to favor more IP, they likely opt for a blanket WSW. ISW has connotations that they are understandably careful with invoking.

Undoubtedly waiting one more cycle to decide WSW vs ISW. Probably fine timing wise given slowdown depicted on modeling.