LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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What's that huge double peak at the end? 2009-10 and 2010-11?
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How well can they predict where the extreme blocking will show up from year to year? I'm guessing not well?
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Now the question is how much of a role climate change plays in these extreme blocks, since they seem to be migrating to different parts of the globe. In 2014-15 we also had extreme blocking but it was in the North Pacific (if I remember correctly?) and if climate change plays a role in the extremity of these blocks will their return rate increase? Has it been already? 2017-18 was another example of extreme blocking, but much later in the season.
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Yes in 2010 that hung on a knife's edge, as the original prediction was for 3 inches or less in December, which would have meant a low snowfall winter. The day after Christmas storm when the month was nearly over is what turned the knife.
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What caused that historic block in 2010? Was it a holdover from what happened the previous winter?
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We had a large area of 30"+ in January 2016. It's going to be really hard to top that. And strong el ninos provide kind of juice to do that on a widespread basis (Feb 1983 and PD2 were two other cases where it happened.)
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89-90 a season I was thinking about....but that year the cold came early, and left early....
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Yep, it cleaned out whatever was causing my horrendous allergies today. Light rain is THE WORST (or just cloudy skies), when it rains hard they vanish.
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Also, Decembers with at least 6" of snow generally result in above normal snowfall during La Nina winters correct, Don?
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1966-67 had this-- lots of snow on both coasts
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Just keep expectations a little tempered because both 95-96 and 10-11 were la ninas after el ninos.
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No, but EasternLI posted that it 'ends here' and that image was dated the 12th.
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Looks lik 8th-12th and then it flips? But you need flips to get big storms.
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What's causing this? Some typhoon recurvature?
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It's hilarious no one is talking about this big rain storm going on right now with it about as dark as it gets outside. My morning rainfall allergies at least went away when the rain started coming down hard. Those are bad when it's light rain or just cloudy, but once it's raining hard the air cleans up and my allergies go away.
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Pinatubo might have had a role in that winter.
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1995-96 was superior to it for big snows, but 1993-94 was colder.
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We had a few winters that came close to that-- 2003-04 was one and 2014-15 was another. But it's definitely something we probably shouldn't count on happening more than, say, once a decade or so. 1993-94 had amazing below zero temperatures to an extent we haven't seen since then.
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Regardless of 1997-98 being considered the least snowiest winter of all time for us (going by DJF) or even 1972-73 if you consider the whole snow season, I'll always consider 2001-02 as the most extreme winter we've ever had (for both warmth and snowlessness.) 2001-02 was the polar opposite of 1995-96.
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Yes the snowy composite had a mild first half of November (up to the 15th ish) and then cold in the second half. 1993-94 was a prime example of that.
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How many times did this happen where we didn't get a large amount of snow and how much did luck factor into 2010-11? I remember MANY very cold blocky December-Januarys in the 80s when we did not have much snow (it was usually suppressed.) ALSO WE MUST REMEMBER THAT 2010-11 WAS A LA NINA AFTER AN EL NINO, THIS POINT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH. THOSE TEND TO BE VERY SNOWY HERE.
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I can't help but think that a mild November was good to set this up.
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The timing here is a lot better than it was in 2018. Once past February it's extremely difficult for urban areas to get extreme snowfall totals.
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You never know, he could be trolling too ;-)
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He's basically saying we're in a thread the needle pattern..... so what else is new? lol
