LibertyBell

Chris, are these mismatch years much more likely when a la nina comes after an el nino? Maybe thats why these years are much more snowy than other la ninas?

I've never believed drought monitors, they are unscientific to an extreme degree. This is the driest it's been here since 2002.

how about warm and an occasional snow event a la February 2008?

earthquakes?

we can get near 20" if we get a March 2009 style moderate event.

it seems like ever since 2009-10, they are much more with Baltimore and DC in the snowfall department than they are with us. The same was the case in the 80s, when storms like February 1989 affected them much more than they did us. They have a more inland midatlantic based climate. I still argue for NYC not being part of either the midatlantic or new england. Their summers are also much more like the midatlantic (much hotter than ours). Other winters in which they were much more like the midatlantic than us include 1993-94, 2009-10, 2010-11.

I think we benefit more if it's later in February and in March. We would need March 2014 style suppression to miss out on it that late in the season.

Noway, it takes me 3 hours to get to NE PA. There is no part of PA that's less than 3 hours away from here.

Yes, I remember something like this during the early 90s too-- was it 91-92? There were two back to back 4"+ snowfall events after a snowless winter near the spring solstice.

The funny thing about el ninos is that it's usually the ones with the snowy December that are the best in terms of snow overall. Examples are 2002-03 and 2009-10.

But we also have to deal with the fact that when the first half of winter has less than 10 inches of snow, March is often also not snowy. 08-09 did have quite a bit more snow at this point in time.

More than 50% chance NYC finishes with less than 10 inches of snow and no 4 inch snowstorm.

he's talking about shortening wavelengths changing the way that the la nina affects the east coast. you are correct too though, March isn't as snowy when the first part of winter isn't snowy.

Our two most snowiest enso states though are weak el ninos and weak la ninas.

08-09 bears a lot of similarities to what you are talking about-- the last week of February and the first week of March were very snowy. January was very similar to this month too. March 1st had the best snowstorm of the entire season and the only true coastal snowstorm.

la nina pattern is cold in December and January and warmer after January. examples of this are 1995-96, 2008-9, 2010-11. la ninas after el ninos are exceptionally cold in December and January-- 1983-84 is another great example

Yes, lets hope they get a lot more rain going forward

Weird, I went to Boston on Amtrak and it never seemed that far away. I guess because I look at Boston as two states away (CT and then MA) while DC is four states away (NJ, PA, DE, MD). There was only one stop in between on Amtrak going to Boston from Penn Station-- New London, CT.

But our weather does not really match any of the other cities, even Philadelphia, who often get hit by snow that misses us to the south. The distance between Philadelphia and NYC is about the same as the distance between NYC and Boston, I think? I think we'll be above normal too, on the strength of perhaps hitting 50 or even being in the lower 50s on Wednesday.

We can hope for a February 2008 type storm later in the month, that was also an SWFE in a warm pattern and yet it dropped 6-8 inches of snow.

the la nina was also the reason for the cold December-January this is just normal la nina weather we have seen several times before.

1772 - Possibly the greatest snowfall ever recorded in the Washington DC area started on this day. When the storm began, Thomas Jefferson was returning home from his honeymoon with his new bride, Martha Wayles Skelton. The newlyweds made it to within eight miles of Monticello before having to abandon their carriage in the deep snow. Both finished the ride on horseback in the blinding snow. The newlyweds arrived home late on the night of January 26th. In Jefferson's "Garden Book," he wrote, "the deepest snow we have ever seen. In Albermarle, it was about 3. F. deep." wow how much snow fell in DC in this one, Don, more than the Knickerbocker storm of 1922? 3F= 3 feet? 1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast States, with 18 inches reported at Vineland NJ, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Chatham MA. Snow cover in Virginia ranged up to thirty inches following this second major storm in just one week. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Big southern NJ snowstorm, it happened again in February 1989

whats the normal La Nina progression, Chris-- cold in December and January and milder in February? I want to see if the average temperature in February is higher than it was in December

We look to be in the *near normal* zone, Don. It's quite apparent we're not in the Mid Atlantic, but we're not in New England either.

it's bad out there, I intend to be outside as little as possible until the weather warms up. what you have sounds so awful, with all the blisters you mentioned I thought at first you had chicken pox.....