LibertyBell
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It makes me wonder why multiday storms have become so rare. Going back through history they used to be much more common (from the 1920s through the 1960s).
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Even the parts of SNE that are east of us? We've seen a few examples where, for example, the cape and other extreme coastal parts of New England change to rain before we do. So if the storm and the 850mb low both go south of us, it's simply a bowling ball storm and not an SWFE? -
if one tracks far enough to our south that it never changes to rain would it still get the same name? Like if it didn't get north of the Delmarva for example?
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why aren't they good for us if the storm track is farther to the south though? you could have one that tracked 100 miles to our south and then stay all snow?
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February 2008 was the best combo, it came in strong and heavy and came in very late at night, during the diurnal min.
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when did they start being called these? we just called them west to east bowling ball events and the general consensus was if the low passed to your south (south jersey to delmarva) you were going to get snow.
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that's absolutely amazing, I wonder how close it comes to my dream scenario, where you can see it snowing from your 2nd floor bedroom window but it changes to rain when you're on the ground floor. If you have some tall trees there you could see snow cover at the tree top level but nothing outside of water dripping from the lower branches!
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Where has snowman disappeared to?
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How does the upcoming stratospheric event play into this?
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is it possible we get into a suppressed pattern after the 14th and we go cold and dry like we were in January, Chris?
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That acceleration was a disappointing surprise, but at least that first system did not produce much rainfall so most of our low rainfall records were set. It was still a surprise to see the speed up on such a short lead time.
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I wonder how much of it has to do with elevation?
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One of my favorite storms, never changed to rain (the rain/snow line was north south rather than east west).
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it only changed to rain in the last hour or two here from what I remember. Around 8 inches at JFK?
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what would it take for us to engineer the climate to prevent this from happening? just from a hypothetical point of you.
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It's okay I wouldn't have had a chance to enjoy it, I got an intense stomach bug around 8 PM last night after eating a banana of all things, a sharp fever and shivering, nausea and dizziness and eventually vomiting. Now starting to recover but finding it hard to believe that eating a banana could cause all this. Now I don't want to eat any solid food today and just drink juice lol
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January 1991 is the one I remember from the early 90s I think. We hadn't had a 6+ event in a long time and everyone was excited that we'd get a 6 inch snowstorm even though it would change to rain later. It snowed most of the day and didn't change to rain until after it was dark, which was perfect timing, the reverse (snow at night rain during the day) would not be as nice. Of course the following month, February 1991 I think it was, we had the 36 hour 9 inch snowstorm, so we ended the 6 inch snowless streak with a bang (and a busted forecast, as no snow was predicted, it was just supposed to be a frontal passage- and neither BOS nor PHL got snow like we did.) On the topic of snow to rain, wasn't January 87 another heavy snow to rain storm? Maybe just at the end?
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Ever wonder why the reason is that long range forecasts are so inaccurate? It's not just about not having the right tech or enough data..... what if it's that the future is in flux and it isn't set in stone until it actually happens? It would mean that no amount of AI or quantum computing could ever pin down something as specifically chaotic as snowfall amounts and rain/snow lines weeks or even days in advance. Think about it, what if a whole myriad of futures is possible and little unpredictable chaotic black swan events can alter it radically so there really is no way to predict the future until it actually happens? For us, an example of a black swan event was the Boxing Day blizzard in December 2010. Before that snowstorm happened there was talk of a snowless winter because we had less than 3 inches of snow in December and you know how it goes with la ninas with less than 3 inches of snow by New Years Day. When the GFS latched on to it, everyone laughed because none of the other models did. The rest as they say is history.
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They just had a child together!
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When I was a kid and saw this happen I tried to calculate how high a wall would need to put up to block the warmer air from coming in off the ocean or failing that, how much liquid helium we'd need to dump into the ocean to freeze it solid.
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Yep I think 4" is the point where it's okay if it flips over. I remember we had a storm in the early 90s (maybe Feb 93) with 4 inches of snow in 4 hours and then rain for 4 hours. We got 4 inches and Central Park got 6 inches because they were snow for an extra 2 hours before it changed over there. There was still enough snow left over at the end for it to look wintry here. Anything less than 4 and it's not worth it.
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so thats when we could get something other than an SWFE snow to rain.
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this could be a good thing to fight back against suppession
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anything is better than *puking*
