LibertyBell

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking at times in recent years has been compensating to some extent. The hard freeze last May over the interior occurred with one of the strongest -EPO +PNA blocks on record for that time of year. But the stronger spring blocking at times can’t affect the earlier arrival of spring. So we get these overlaps leading to damaging freezes in susceptible arras. 

 

what caused the crazy May 9, 2020 arctic shot, Chris?

was it the strongest arctic shot in May since May 9, 1977 or maybe even stronger?

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking at times in recent years has been compensating to some extent. The hard freeze last May over the interior occurred with one of the strongest -EPO +PNA blocks on record for that time of year. But the stronger spring blocking at times can’t affect the earlier arrival of spring. So we get these overlaps leading to damaging freezes in susceptible arras. 

 

absolutely-- we don't exist in a vacuum.  The planet can to some extent self regulate and nature tries to balance out the human caused changes by adjusting in return.

1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Starting off at 24. Bird bath is frozen. 

Same low as Westhampton and a record there

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Figures the first record low of the year down to 33° at Islip would wait until late April.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp

Islip

Low 33

Gabreski also had a record low, 24 I think?

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

43 here

it got down into the upper 30s last night!

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The major effects of CC to this point haven’t all been bad on a global basis. For example, fewer deaths from temperature extremes resulting from GW due to cold being a much bigger killer than heat. This is largely due to many more hours spent in the cold danger zone than within the heat danger zone in a large majority of locations:

“For the majority of the time, most cities have colder temperatures than their local optimum temperature, or the temperature that minimizes the death rate in that area.

 “It has been estimated that about 5.1 million excess deaths per year are associated with non-optimal temperatures. Of those, 4.6 million are associated with colder than optimum temperatures, and 0.5 million are associated with hotter than optimum temperatures.”
 

 “Deaths associated with non-optimal temperatures have been decreasing over time as it has gotten warmer partly due to a reduction in cold deaths. It has been estimated that warming from 2000 to 2019 has resulted in a net decline in excess deaths globally (a larger decrease in cold deaths than an increase in heat deaths).”

https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/human-deaths-from-hot-and-cold-temperatures-and-implications-for-climate-change

 Whereas deaths from temperature extremes have decreased through 2019 per this study, the same study says that there’s much uncertainty looking well out into the future. A good number of models suggest that after deaths continue to drop in the near future, they will start to increase late this century. This is because heat related deaths are being projected by these models to then start increasing more rapidly than the reduction of cold related deaths. From the same study, here’s Figure 10, which shows London as an example:

 Of course due to that being so far out in the future, there’s lots of uncertainty since increased acclimation/air conditioning could negate a good portion of the projected increase in heat related deaths. 

There's other factors associated with this-- for example excessive flooding, more forest fires and higher air pollution.

Add them all up together and you have billion dollar disaster that need to be paid for by lowlifes like Greenskeeper and his kind who don't understand science and the fossil fuel cartels trash like him worships.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You are missing the point that I made. The first 70° and 80° degree days of the season are becoming earlier at a faster rate than the last freeze is becoming earlier. So this creates more damaging freeze potential in the spring due to the increasing overlap. This is why the most damaging interior Northeast freeze on record for the spring occurred in May 2023. This works for many stations across the Northeast where the spring bloom is becoming earlier faster than the last freeze is becoming earlier.  Some spots have a 3 week to one month faster start to spring while the last freeze is still within a week of where it was during the 1951-1980 climate normals period. Now if you go back to the late 1800s off course the last freeze was later. But that really isn’t relevant to the current day agricultural interests which have been sustaining spring freeze losses. We have also seen this is the Southeast with earlier starts to spring in February only to be subject to damaging freezes in March. 

This has been getting more attention from the literature in Europe recently but the same thing happened in the Northeast last May.

 

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-early-growing-period-frost-in-france/

In early April 2021 several days of severe frost affected central Europe following an anomalously warm March. This led to very severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees, particularly in France, where young leaves had already unfolded in the warm early spring. Using published peer-reviewed methods we analysed how human-induced climate change affected the temperatures as extreme as observed in spring 2021 over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that although climate change made the temperatures of the observed event less cold than they would have been without the burning of fossil fuels over the last centuries, the fact that climate change has also led to an earlier start of the growing season means that frost damage in young leaves has become more likely due to human-induced climate change.

 

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear.

The last freeze at Newark hasn’t changed since 1950 but the first 70° and 80° days of the season are arriving much earlier.

The important thing to remember about climate change, as you stated, is more extremes.  That means both extremes in temperature as well as precipitation.

The motto should be to expect the unexpected.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

NYC never radiates well 

They will once we get rid of this polluted concrete.  NYC has plans to make the city 30% green by 2030.

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main challenge for the area is that the last freeze date is similar to 1951-1980 but first 70s and 80s of spring are arriving much earlier. So this has lead to the damaging spring freezes across the northeast especially in the interior. The historic damaging freeze last May to our north matched the pattern of early season warmth causing blooms which were followed by a damaging hard freeze. We can understand that as the climate continues to warm spring will arrive earlier with the quicker blooms. But the last freeze date has not changed as much and needs some further investigation. My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking from the EPO to NAO regions recently is allowing the last freeze date to remain more constant relative to earlier eras.    
 

I will use Newark as an example of this pattern that shows up to varying degrees across the region.

 

Newark

2010-2023

Last 32°…. 04-04…last 30s…04-21

First 70°…..03-07…first 80°….03-31

1951-1980

Last 32°…..04-04…..last 30s…04-22

First 70°.….03-26….first 80°…..04-22

 

But why is last freeze for Central Park being listed as March 30th? When I was growing up it was listed as April 10th....

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK had 1.5" on April 19, 1983. The low temperature was 35°.

wow I wonder if that was the warmest low temperature at JFK at which 1" of snow has fallen?

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

LGA : 4/17 : 32 (1980)
JFK:  4/16 : 32 (2014)

Thats right we had a small accumulation of snow on 4/16/14!

I'm shocked it wasn't either 4/19 or 4/20 in 1983.... didn't JFK have about 2 inches of snow on that very late date? Tony, can you please check 4/19-4/20 in 1983 and see what the temperature was when it was snowing on those days?  Thanks!

17 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Am Weather sounds familiar, but can't remember a thing about it?  Comcast in Union County NJ removed the full time weather/radar about 10 years ago.  Maybe with everyone owning a smart phone, it was no longer really necessary?

10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Is that what is was called? Was that on in the early 80s too? I remember watching some early morning weather show not on a major network. My first distinct memories of this are from April 1982.  

18 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Am Weather sounds familiar, but can't remember a thing about it?  Comcast in Union County NJ removed the full time weather/radar about 10 years ago.  Maybe with everyone owning a smart phone, it was no longer really necessary?

Found it!

It was on until 1995-- ended just before the historic 1995-96 snowfall season (but at least it was here for 1993-94 when I remember watching it almost every morning!)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.M._Weather

A.M. Weather^[1] was an American weather news program that ran from October 30, 1978 to February 3, 1995. and was broadcast on PBS member stations throughout the United States. The 15-minute daily program, which aired fifteen minutes before or after the hour (depending on the station's scheduling of the program) and was produced by Maryland Public Television (MPT, or before 1984 the Maryland Center for Public Broadcasting), featured detailed forecasts presented by meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

While many other media outlets embraced computer weather maps and graphics in the 1980s for weather forecasting use, A.M. Weather held back on fully embracing computer graphics until 1991, although the program did adapt to such graphics for satellite and radar maps in the late 1980s. The show's trademark yellow pointer was a mainstay of the program entire run.

Overview[edit]

The show's progression usually started with a satellite and radar segment, followed by the current conditions around the U.S. (vice versa in early years), then the forecast (especially in terms of temperatures and precipitation), followed by an aviation forecast (locations of MVFR and IFR, aircraft icing, turbulence and winds aloft) and ended (when necessary) with an inclement weather report, called "WeatherWatch" (the only time that the yellow pointer was not used).

The program aired its final edition on February 3, 1995; one of the reasons behind A.M. Weather's cancellation was that MPT wanted to expand on its morning business news enterprise with Bloomberg L.P.

Hosts included NOAA meteorologists Carl Weiss, Joan von Ahn and Wayne Winston, as well as H. Michael Mogil, Rich Warren, Dale Bryan and Barry Richwein. Other notable substitute hosts included: Regis Walter, Steve Zubrick (now the president of the National Weather Association), Gary Petti (a meteorologist with National Weather Service and National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), now retired), and George Lessens (now the chief meteorologist at WZZM in Grand Rapids, Michigan).

7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Is that what is was called? Was that on in the early 80s too? I remember watching some early morning weather show not on a major network. My first distinct memories of this are from April 1982.  

Yep, and they gave flight info and it's the first time I ever heard of these terms!  It was only on for 15 minutes a day in the 80s and 90s at 7:15 AM but I loved watching it and I remember looking at their forecast snow maps-- they were usually first onto a potential threat before the local news stations got it.

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Down to 42, now to 45 partly to mostly cloudy, clearing by early afternoon.  Chilly today mainly in the 50s - low 60s. 30s or lower inland and upper 30s metro/coastal for what should be the coldest night till the fall.   Warmer each day peaking Sun / Mon in the 80s to perhaps the first 90s in some spots.  Step down next week to open May but still overall dry / warm till about the 4th.  Then cooler beyond there for a period.

 

How much cooler are we talking about after May 4th, Tony? Not as cool as it is now or will be tonight?

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Looks like April 23rd at EWR (1933), NYC May 6 (1891)

Thanks Tony, what about LGA and JFK?

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tonight looks like it will be colder especially in the areas that radiate well. 20s possible in the Pine Barrens at FOK as the big high moves over the area. So a freeze is possible in outlying areas. The CAA this morning had a bit of an easterly component which came in warmer than guidance. 

 

 

 

and also the clouds, which were pretty low here this morning.

Chris, what's the latest that we've seen 32 degrees at the park or city airports over the past 50 years or so? I'm curious about how we're seeing mid to upper 30s occurring later now than they used to, but our last freeze always seems to be in late March now.

With the clouds it never got lower than the low 40s last night.  Tonight should be the coldest night of the entire month though....

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Haven’t seen a drop here…

the sun is coming back out here now.

11 minutes ago, Cfa said:

First rumbles of thunder for 2024. Light rain, heavy rain missing me to the west. I noticed the clouds starting to look pretty cumulonimbus about an hour ago and I thought I was wrong.

It was just well into the 70’s and now this.

we need the front to fully pass through and push this junk offshore completely

6 minutes ago, Cfa said:

First rumbles of thunder for 2024. Light rain, heavy rain missing me to the west. I noticed the clouds starting to look pretty cumulonimbus about an hour ago and I thought I was wrong.

It was just well into the 70’s and now this.

didn't we have thunderstorms last week? we had rain and then the sun came out....

I think it was two Saturdays ago?

14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Tomatoes do very well in the heat, but I've found that peppers don't like it too hot. They often slow down during very hot periods in the summer. I usually get my best crop of peppers during the early fall when it has cooled off. 

I'm looking through my pictures to see what year my garden did the best, it turns out it was 1993.  But I was also using cow manure back then..... lol

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

When you find some tomato and pepper plants that are drought resistant let me know.

The cold is more of  a problem than lack of rainfall for those-- we already have way too much rain.

I grow those myself-- peppers need hot weather to grow well.

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

ok.  I will send away for some mail order cactus. 

I like the label "drought resistant"

16 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I would think fear of flooding basements is a higher priority to planting vegetables for some?

Plus it's really hard to do anything with so much sogginess everywhere.  It also promotes dangerous bugs who spread disease (like mosquitoes and ticks.)

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not wanting dry weather for weeks or a drought doesn't mean we have to have the other extreme in flooding. We're just talking about a normal 1"/week

or 1 inch every 10 days which is good.