ConvectiveIA

I’m seeing a northward push in Iowa parts east of here just now. It’s light stuff but it’s happening

Just now started snowing in Des Moines! That edge is as advertised on radar! In fact the snow flakes arrived before the pictured edge enveloped us

I’m sure there are differences in improvement regionally as well.

You and I are in the same boat with this one. In the last 20 minutes I’m seeing the radar edge of snow starting to lurch north of the two southernmost tiers of IA counties. We have a better shot this time than the Nov storm. The name of the game is just relaxing with a few nice beers and watching the radar returns. The next 3-4 hours will be critical IMO as the bulk of precipitation is going heavy to our south and the low is approaching on the western/northwestern side of this. The short term high res models still place Des Moines in the middle of the cutoff with 4-5 inches of snow but weirdly these models seem to think we won’t see our first inch for another 10-12 hours while radar shows it’s snowing 1 county to our south already. I wonder if those are dry returns. No matter how you slice it this is a huge slow moving storm that is hammering Missouri no doubt. This beer tastes great.

Well it looks like we will definitely get some snow out of this. At least a couple inches. 18z models have so far pulled back a hair on accumulations in town but we remain well south of the absolute cutoff. The gradient looks a lot more relaxed than the November storm and radar returns are creeping up our way nicely given the forecast snow is 6 hours away yet. This will be fun and interesting and if we are extra lucky we’ll get 5-6 inches

Is HRRR trustworthy that far out yet?

Most models held agreement and held steady overnight and it looks like the HRRR 36hr 0z came north a tad to agree with the rest. I’m confident in a solid 2 inches for us now. Winter weather advisory is up for 2-6 inches

A nice coating

It could be maybe the heavy freezing drizzle possibility? I know in Iowa NORTH of the snow shield they’re forecasting freezing drizzle. If that gets heavy enough?

The 00z NAM still comes in juicy for me. The 00z HRRR does not but that’s extreme long range for HRRR

In the battle between how much it has snowed on the Missouri Iowa border this season which is south of us, they’ve gotten twenty times as much snow as we have up in Des Moines so far this year and it puts climo to shame

This storm looks structurally different and larger and less intense than the late November storm but with that I-80 cutoff looking similar to it, how does this storm compare to the late November storm? With that storm the models headed south further out (2 days) than this one, but it really does look very similar for my neck of the woods. I’ve only had 1 inch of snow IMBY all season so far, and the November storm only gave us a dusting while 30 miles south got a foot! The 18z GFS is coming in not so much looking further south but a little bit of a tighter cutoff on the north side for IA. I’m thinking we still look better for this than the NOV storm

Though one would hope November was long enough ago that this storm wouldn’t be forced by the same setup. Still though it makes me very nervous

Yeah with that new Euro I have a feeling other models will tick south. I’m going to go for 1-2 inches in my area. Could be more but I’m being conservative now

Pour some sugar on me

18z GFS caved and is north among others

Too far south for me to get my hopes up right now and too much disagreement between models

So boring. I guess I can pretend I’m in Southern California again where I get excited about moderate winter rain storms

It was supposed to be rain here but it just changed to snow just before temporarily ending.

Yesss. And the NAM has been consistent at advertising this but is reasonably being ignored by forecasters. I’m still hoping for it or some kind of last minute deformation band at the tail end

It looks to me like the GFS and NAM are trending a little south with the next potential storm, with the NAM bringing the snow line south just shy of us. But after the last disappointment I’m planning on nothing yet. 84 hours being long range for that model and all. It looks like a separate swath of snow from the main punch. Maybe deformation?

Me too. Right in the transition zone between a foot and nothing. Only the north-y 00z GFS places is square in the heavy snow axis, giving us over a foot, and I can’t trust it. The official forecast is 1.5-3 inches, but most models place us in that transition “gradient” with 2-5 inches predicted

Newest Computer forecast models are placing the low ever so slightly north of what was predicted earlier. This can result in folks on the north side of the storm getting snow when they might not have otherwise if the storm passed them to the south. Furthermore, the warm sector usually is on the south side of the storm. This means someone on the southern side of the precipitation might be more likely to get rain because the warm air on the south side ends up reaching a little bit further north. It can get complicated

At least the 01z hrrr is coming in looking ok