ConvectiveIA
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Everything posted by ConvectiveIA
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Does that mean snowmobile to it? Sorry for my ignorance. I though WI and MN were in a snow drought
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A bit late for me to be in here but I worked today. We ended up with a solid 6 new inches. It looked gorgeous on top of the 4 inches we already had
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We’re trapped under a moderate snow band for some time now. Got about 1.5-2 inches of fresh snow since it started at 2 this afternoon
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I think that right now the RAP and HRRR are too far southeast over our area with the cutoff as snow has already developed in areas northwest of it. The RDPS looks more realistic, or maybe something between but it’s slready snowing nicely here with 1/2 inch new snow so far
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It’s a little weird and scary. We are in the bullseye now but it’s a skinny swath
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It’s 6 degrees colder here than was predicted yesterday for this time of morning
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And central Iowa members by golly
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And this sudden shift of the models took place too late for the NWS afternoon package again lol. They’re still calling for an inch of snow here where the GFS, RDPS and NAM all point to 6-8 inches
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18z NAM is south for sure and places metro DSM much closer to, or just within, the heavy snow band. This outcome would not surprise me at all.
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It’s absolutely ripping here. I havnt seen it snow this heavily in a few years!
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We have graupel spittin’ right now with the radar filling in around us! Let’s get it started!
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I’m betting on 3 inches in DSM/AMES Storm is a day late and a dollar short for the hefty amounts forecast yesterday
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Things have trended less organized in the last suite of runs showing that for us, it’s a day late and a dollar short for the promises of high totals the models advertised yesterday. Big screw zone on west side of Iowa extending into the DSM/Ames metro area
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Hot Diggity. I don’t own a shovel and scant the chance to purchase one
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Yeah the 18z runs come out too late for the afternoon package.
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Looking at the DSM NWS forecast discussion it would seem they are being quite conservative about central Iowa. They are thinking 3 inches or so maybe 4, but most models I’ve seen are showing 4-7 inches here, with the 18z NAM closer to 8 inches and the GFS at over 6. The argument is that it’ll be columns and not dendrites, but I have a feeling they might change their minds and include us in a Watch tomorrow.
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Hahaha well it certainly has its share of followers. Oh my. Oh dear.
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I really do like the 18z NAM.
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The notion of a big storm possible makes me feel warm and fuzzy but it’ll probably be Tuesday before I start getting excited about the model runs. I’m too old for disappointment
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Wow I actually graduated high school in Rhode Island and my sister lives in Connecticut and she is complaining they haven’t seen any snow! The land of the dying mcs comment was because a year or two ago one of the posters here had that as their catchphrase or signature on all their posts! I’m happy we are in a new pattern now and look forward to storm watchin with everyone the next few weeks! ps I consider Iowa the land of the dying supercell
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SE MI, the land of the dying MCS
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That’s really sad I hate it when that happens if people would just slow down when it’s snowing or icy
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Snow really seems to be very slowly lightening up but it’s still accumulating. We have about 5 inches or just shy of that now. I’m grateful to the snow gods and satisfied with this one. The models were too conservative/too far south with the northern cutoff here too and even Ames got a few inches and snow made it up even further north than that. Here’s a photo from 2 hours ago. Little more out there now
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NWS DSM upgraded to warnings in the entire of bottom two tiers of counties in Iowa. I’m surprised they didn’t do the 3rd tier as well given these radar returns in Warren County. They’re really getting dumped on there and already have at least 5-7 inches. We have over 4 inches in dsm as it is and the heavy stuff pulsates across into Polk county here in 20-30 minute bursts. Update: just as I was writing they launched warnings in the 3rd tier!
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Oh yes we have 2.5 - 3 inches on the ground now downtown and the heavier stuff is starting to develop north over us.
