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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

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Posts posted by Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

    GSP  :lol: 

    .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 pm EST Tuesday: Looking ahead to the weekend, all
attention turns toward the possibility of a winter storm that would
affect the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia beginning perhaps
as early as Saturday afternoon and possibly continuing through the
better part of Sunday...emphasis on the word "possible". It is worth
noting that the 12Z ECMWF has come around to the GFS idea that a
strong short wave dropping southeastward along the High Plains would
ultimately cut off an upper low over the central/srn Plains Friday
night into Saturday. Also worth noting is the relative run-to-run
consistency seen in the operational GFS with this feature. The
setup begins Friday night into Saturday as the developing split in
the flow helps to slow the progress of a large continental sfc high
moving from Ontario, down across the lower lakes, to Upstate NY/New
England Saturday/Saturday night. This would provide the necessary
source for cold air prior to the arrival of the precip associated
with the upper low, which operational guidance suggests will come
across the lower MS Valley region Saturday night. The operational
models show partial thickness values low enough to support at least
a mix with wintry precip as we acquire isentropic lift on Saturday
that could force the development of said precip by the afternoon. If
this develops as it could, essentially as an activating warm front,
it would help to lock in the cooler sfc temps before the main
mid/upper forcing arrives from the west. The operational models all
show a closed upper low rolling east on Sunday, moving overhead or
to the south of the fcst area, then offshore/northeast on Sunday
night. Be that as it may, this is not the only possible solution,
and some of the ensemble members show very different outcomes
to the upper/sfc pattern. Looking at the GEFS...there has been
a definite trend toward more wintry precip across more of the
fcst area, with the majority of ensemble members at 12Z showing
wintry precip affecting nearly the entire fcst area Saturday
night/Sunday. The plume diagrams, and their supposed total snow
accumulations, appear most tantalizing. However, there are as many
ensemble members showing minimal wintry precip as there are showing
a great deal, and some still showing none at all. Our forecast will
reflect developing confidence in the wintry scenario but limits
the precip probs to the chance range for the time being. The trend
is toward more of a snow possibility along/north of I-85 and more
mixing/changing to sleet/freezing rain south of I-85, but this is
only one scenario. The track of the low will determine how strong
of a warm nose might develop from the south, which would greatly
affect the precip-type distribution. The QPF blend right now is
especially modest, and the conservative approach is preferable
for a system that is still out on Day 4/5. In spite of the trend,
readers are cautioned to manage their expectations...at least for
the time being. Stay tuned.

If this system develops as it could, we would be in for some NW
flow snow on the TN border Sunday night into Monday, otherwise
the remainder of the period would be quiet with a large sfc high
settling across the region Monday into Tuesday.

    I wish I could have a facepalm reaction to the bold statement. We can’t find a model now that doesn’t show warning criteria snow so we are picking out individual ensemble members. Wut?!

    • Haha 2
    • Confused 1

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Lookout said:

    UK is south but a lot of snow in ga and sc. Although the differences are certainly there, considering this is still 4 to 5 days out, I feel like there is remarkable agreement. Sure wouldn't get hung up on any one run or model though

    Yeah it’s south but definitely north of its 0Z run. Probably playing into its suppression bias. 

    • Like 1

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

    Eh nothing else to do might as well. Blue Ridge is right tho def trending toward GFS with the evolution. 

    Yeah icon actually IMO has gotten worse as a model as a whole. Use to be fairly decent but it’s definitely always too warm at the surface. 

    • Like 1

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Just now, olafminesaw said:

    Gotta iron out the vort track, strength etc. before it's even worth thinking about precip type issues. Always an issue when it comes to the big ones, which is why we don't mind an EPS-like solution

    Well the 6Z EPS is moving toward the GFS in a hurry. The 6Z Euro control was almost carbon copy GFS. 

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, burgertime said:

    6z EPS again goes towards the GFS. Not the monster GFS is but a nice low track with an I-85 special. RDU east across much of the state is 4+. Not so far east with that 4+ as the 00z. Sorry @ILMRoss

     

     

    6z_Euro_EPS_Snow.png

    As you mentioned, not the bomb the GFS has YET. But, definitely a big step toward it. 

    • Like 2

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said:

    I haven't had a good snow since January 2018 and next week I'll be in Disney. With my luck, you will all get blasted all the way to the coast. Good luck! 

    I’m actually flying out a week from today to Disney as well. Hoping for a big snow to send us off. 

    • Like 1
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