Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Trends are our friends right now. 

There are some absolute monsters on the GFS ensemble run. 

Just now, Tyler Penland said:

GFS is storm after storm. Looks better for next Tuesday as well.

I'm very interested in next weekend, could be the next big one.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
 

Have a seat before you see the euro….

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

I think you mean at 174

You could see at 144 at the H5 level it was looking much improved from 0Z. 

48 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Do you also work in Buncombe?

Nah. I work from home mostly unless I’m traveling for work. 

More evidence of the French broad River valley warmth. Buncombe county schools 2 hour delay tomorrow except Owen (most eastern) and Enka (most western) districts which are remote learning. 

20 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Don't look now, but 12z HRRR begins snow in Haywood Co around noon.

Yeah 12Z HRRR good snow this afternoon in all of WNC 

CMC amped, more phasing, NW

GFS folding like a cheap lawn chair. 

Just now, wncsnow said:

RGEM is decent but we miss the heaviest moisture 

Definitely good to see it go towards a phased solution. Excellent runs tonight so far. 

Just now, Ghicks said:

just hope its not dak at the quarterback. lol 

I feel that’s how we are sometimes though. Running with little time on the clock knowing we don’t have a timeout. 

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Heading down tonight 

Doesn’t seem to be too crowded, as of now. 

Just now, burrel2 said:

Got toe mighty. Need a cig after that Rgem run... WOOOO!!!!

Yep. RGEM heading toward climo. 

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

I'll be thinking about yall while I'm hanging out at Disney for the next week 

Come on down, weather is lovely here right now. Flew down from Charlotte Douglas yesterday. 

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You can see where its heading 

Yep. That was about to hit us really good 

1 minute ago, WxJordan said:

This type of coastal low is usually not good for us in western NC, especially when upper level support is lacking. IMO, this is really looking like a good setup for eastern NC. I really doubt how much moisture would wrap around roughly west of 77 at the moment.

I think the over running moisture initially will be the best for us up this way. With the ratios, .20-.25 of qpf will get you warning criteria. 

Just now, WxJordan said:

EURO definitely less amped (more towards other guidance). Totals cut way way down in western portions, continues to show good totals across eastern NC. I really like the look of this for you guys in central and eastern NC.

5 inches at Morganton. Know it’s been a good winter when that seems meh lol 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

UK is another I 95 special but trended east from last run 

Sounds like last storm at this lead time 

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Maybe for you lol

Nah we just got a foot of snow this way 

21 degrees here as well this morning with near white out conditions at times from the NWF snow and the blowing snow. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Thing of beauty. 

3 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Do you think Asheville will cash in on any of it?

Typical places will do well for NWF, Weaverville, Alexander, Leicester. This one though will be very strong so I could see even downtown getting some light accumulation from it. 

5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Or @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment can we expect that ULL to give us some good rates even up this way later on based on anything you’ve looked at as of recent? 

It’s just going to be a matter of where those rotating bands set up. I’ve been under for about 90 mins and picked up an inch or two. 

Right at 10.5 here so far and still pouring. If HRRR is right, 14 is not out of the question. 

My goodness when it changed back over to all snow, it meant business!