BGM Blizzard
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Although odd looking, it's reasonable based on the current modeling. All the models shove a dry slot right up thru CNY. Warning criteria snowfall is not very likely right now. -
Yeah I'm not holding my breath. The NAM is much warmer and starting to look more believable with every passing run.
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6z Euro tracked from Elmira to Old Forge but still delivers a solid slug of waa snow on the front end.
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On the bright side, im glad I got a plow for the tractor this year. No more having to shovel heavy wet paste, slush, or sleet. Was hoping this storm might be the one to finally test the new snowblower attachment but that's gonna have to wait.
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RAP looks awful for CNY. By 7am monday the i81 corridor is above freezing with drizzle in the slot.
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Pretty fugly look for CNY. Looks like 3-5" waa thump with probably some sleet mixed in during the 2nd half of the night and then slot. Syr area might do better on the backside with some wraparound snow. Thinking BGM issues WWA for all or most of the remaining watches.
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National Blend of Models
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18z Euro a little wetter for CNY... esp thruway area. Keeps the wraparound going right into Monday evening.
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700
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850s
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If anything it went SE a bit. If I get 6-7 here I will be amazed.
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Not for THM
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All this time spent tracking this thing thinking it was "the one" only to find out that...
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We sell.
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They are here to steal your snow.
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Models def seem to have been underestimating that northern stream wave. Seems to be getting stronger and faster with each run and yanking this thing even further west.
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NAM almost wanted to do a full phase with the northern stream this run and send the low over Jamestown. Those h5 and h7 maps make me want to barf. I'd say CNY fate is nearly sealed at this point barring a last min big swing E. Unbelievable.
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Not alot to lose. CNY esp near and east of 81 is looking highly prone for dryslotting and possible mixing/ratio issues. This is probably an advisory level event the way things stand right now.
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Yep not good. Just about lights out for here. I'm shocked BGM issued watches all the way to I81 and esp this early. Its marginal at best for warning criteria snowfall the way things have been looking.
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12z NAM probably gonna be noticeably west this run. That northern stream piece is really strong and digging in this run. Hopefully overdone.
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Overall no big changes. Its still liking an eastern PA track with a wny jack.
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The northern stream energy looks a bit flatter and/or slower this run thru H54 compared to 12/18z runs. Not sure how much impact that will have downstream.
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Uncle is back on the sauce as they say in the NE forum when it pulls something like that out of a hat.
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Ha...48.2... almost half the season total in 1.5 days. And enough to land 2020-21 winter in the top 10 for snowfall in what was one of the worst winters ever in the NE US.
