PowellVolz

God has a plan for all of us and it sounds like he isn’t finished with you. Stay faithful and keep praying. We will pray for you and your family. It’s great that they got you to a trama facility when they did. I know most of you live out in rural areas but I’d recommend anyone that thinks they are really sick, get to a university hospital. My wife is a admin supervisor at UTMC. The sickest of the sick are sent there for a reason because they have great Dr’s and staff with unlimited resources in healthcare. .

Maybe I don’t pay attention enough but I can’t remember a trough just completely collapsing on the backside like this. I can anyone explain why this happened? .

One other note on this… I believe when this system showed up 2 weeks ago it was in a much better location but we are trending towards that the last two days. .

I didn’t see this post but I was thinking basically the same thing. The low forming SW of the valley would be ideal but I won’t complain if it’s just south of us. One other tend has been for the trough to stay positive longer. If that trend would continue, it would open up the back door for the wrap around NW flow machine even if the the low stays north of us a little. .

Anyone else surprised at the trend has been south for the weekend system? I know we are still way off on getting to the winter side of this but we are much closer than I ever imagined also. If we could get the low to form 200 miles SW, it would at least give us a little backside opportunity. .

.

.

Snow line is below 2k now .

Three interesting pics from this morning. The first is 3k feet above Gatlinburg, the second is Newfound Gap (2.5”) and the 3rd is Leconte (6”). .

I started checking around and we were 37-39 at several different locations in NKC but areas to my N/NW were several degrees warmer. There was either some cold air trapped in the valley or maybe some warmer air aloft because my temp went up a few degrees when it started raining. .

Kinda interesting that the temp has really fallen off much faster than I thought. Down to 38 at my house with rain moving in. The forecast for the higher elevations said rain until 11 but it’s already 35 in Gatlinburg and 30 at Newfound Gap. .

Oh boy… https://x.com/webberweather/status/1731755424406511631?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg .

That was an upper level trough with a weak surface low that tracked from Oklahoma to the Great Lakes. That’s pretty much textbook for severe weather east of the Rockies but this system brought so much more that amplified it. 850mb winds out of the SSW were in the 95 percentile of climatology (40-70mph) overspreading the warm sector near the right exit of the LLJ. The ULJ westerlies were screaming up to 120km but the split flow of the ULJ was the straw that broke its back. When the ULJ crossed the trough, part of the jet veered to the north while the southern part continued east. When the jet spilts like that it leaves a void in the atmosphere. The atmosphere sees that void and tries to fill it in to correct the atmospheric imbalance. So the air below the void rapidly rises to fill it in. We all know what rising air does for storms. Another ingredient to this system was the Elevated Mix Layer (EML) was stronger than normal for this time of year. A stout EML in the warm sector helps hold back the showers and clouds that can mix the atmosphere out which reduces buoyancy. That’s why that system was able to have a few dominant supercells get out in front of the main line and survive as long as it did. I’m sure I left something out and @jaxjagman can help me out. .

A 15% day 6 is rare, especially this time of year. Doesn’t look like it as of now but hopefully this isn’t a Dec 11, 2021 scenario. .

Picked up just shy of 3 inches of rain the last 36 hours. Have had between 5-6” over the past 10 days. Not a drought buster but it’s definitely put a big dent in it. If my memory serves me right, I believe the winter following the 2016 drought was very active. I was supposed to play golf today but decided against it with yesterday’s rain but I was surprised to see the ground wasn’t nearly as wet as I expected around my lawn. .

Seen a tweet talking about El Niño winters after severe drought conditions in ETn. Something like 3 of our 4 major droughts during a Nino was followed by some of our snowiest winters on record. One of those was a late 1800’s winter that was the snowiest winter on record for Knoxville. Obviously not suggesting this is coming but it’s nice to have some history on your side. One good thing either way, dry Nino winters seem very rare. .

Next weekend looking really interesting. Severe on the front with NW flow on the back. .

That’s strange. I was at 23 when I left my house at 6:30 and the temp downtown was 31 at 6:55 yesterday morning. This morning it was 34 at the same time downtown and 26 at my house. heat island maybe? .

Low temps in, around Knoxville didn’t get close to projected temps this week. .

Fantasy land Euro….. already trying to trigger me. lol .

We could use your prayers… my wife was diagnosed with breast cancer this week. Do not have all the info just yet but as of now the outlook is positive. Feel terrible for her. She just completely recovered from the brain tumor she had removed 2 years ago. God has been there and he’s not leaving us. Keep us in your prayers. Thanks guys!!!! .

I was driving down Broadway in front of Fulton HS when this guy came by .

Did you all see the RadarScope update has soundings now? .

Is this for right after thanksgiving? .

.