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PowellVolz

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Everything posted by PowellVolz

  1. PowellVolz
    Question… is there any hints of a SE ridge in the LR? I’m not really seeing but I’m not good at some of the LR maps. My point is.. that kinda bothers me a little. We need a little SER to keep systems from tracking over Cuba. .
  2. PowellVolz
    I was surprised it trended SE, not something you see much. .
  3. PowellVolz
    https://x.com/joshgriffithwx/status/1736889075787837586?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg .
  4. PowellVolz
    BTW… that guy works for Reed Timmer and he chases in the Appalachian Mts from SW Va to Tn/NC. He’s a great follower for live intel. .
  5. PowellVolz
    Holy smokes… https://x.com/babowling12/status/1736816349219803187?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg .
  6. PowellVolz
    I’ve been in Halls/Powell my 49 years on earth and these NW flow events do not produce unless there’s some extra forcing involved. The northern plateau from Morgan Co to Campbell Co downslopes us to death. The only exception is when the flow is a little more NNWbut that’s typically more of a backside return from a low pressure off to our E/SE. .
  7. PowellVolz
    Just thinking out loud… sometimes the mods have trouble with these trailing that follow a big dominant system. I can think of a few times when these waves have been stronger than the mods projected. The inverted trough wave that was sandwiched between to big winter storms that hit ETn in 2015 (maybe?) looked like nothing 48 hours out but dropped 3-6” across the valley in a 6 hour window. Not suggesting this is that but just saying the mods do have issues during an active period. .
  8. PowellVolz
    Looks like we have found Knoxville’s lack of snow issue. .
  9. PowellVolz
    I just want a stress free snow, just once. No warm nose, no boundary layer issues, no 500 mile track swings, etc… give me mid to upper 20’s surface temps and a phasing GOM low pressure. I’m not asking for too much am I? [emoji23] .
  10. PowellVolz
    These waves tend to ramp up a few days out and come back to reality 24 hours out when the CAMS are in better range. I think it’s a good sign that we are talking about snow in a pattern that’s about as bad as it gets. I know it’s not a lot but I’ll take flakes in the air, especially in the valley right now. .
  11. PowellVolz
    I’m just glad it’s not emotionally effecting you. .
  12. PowellVolz
    Bring It .
  13. PowellVolz
    The amateur social media Mets are behind a lot of the winter freak outs. Unfortunately their voices are as loud as the experts and they have turned 5 degrees AN into beach weather. At its warmest, it’s been mid 50’s and upper 20’a in Knoxville outside of return flow before a weather event. Obviously that’s not what snow lovers want but that’s not a torch either. Just get the PNA favorable for the east and hopefully we can get lucky with timing. .
  14. PowellVolz
    That second wave is in a good location for NW flow but if it would dig more, further west, it could bring the valley into the conversation .
  15. PowellVolz
    If the 12z GFS is right, I think above 3500’ along the Apps might get hammered with the first system. My only issue and maybe someone can chime in here with more knowledge but could orographic lift suppress rate driven dynamic cooling? .
  16. PowellVolz
    Trailing energy keeps looking better and stronger. .
  17. PowellVolz
    You are Green Co right? .
  18. PowellVolz
    A warm December is right on par with Nino winters. Most strong Nino winters don’t get going around here until January into February. Not panicking yet but by the week of Christmas we should see some LR hope showing up. Let’s also not forget that when we have a very strong anomaly that’s influencing our weather, the mods are going to struggle even more than they do. .
  19. PowellVolz
    Yes.. same day. The LC tornado was really bad. .
  20. PowellVolz
    In Knoxville we had a F3 (EF3 now) touchdown from Clinton to Powell to Halls. It was really bad. 1/2 mile from my house but this was in February of 93’. Blizzard right after that. .
  21. PowellVolz
    Yes… upper ETn does well with handoffs but you’ve got to be NE of Morristown. Similar to the winter of 96’ I believe. .
  22. PowellVolz
    Some of our best winters have ended up with AN temps. Obviously it makes timing more critical but I’ll take my chances with borderline temps over an extended period of very cold air and the GOM closed for business. If we keep getting opportunities for a Miller A etc…. Eventually it will hit. I don’t want to be picky but I hate Miller B’s or some kind of handoff, overrunning event. Give me a trailing ULL following a cold front and let it ride. My point is… let’s not freak out just yet. Long ways to go. .
  23. PowellVolz
    .
  24. PowellVolz
    You talking Tennessee only or overall for the day? Looks like the number is in the mid 20’s for the day. We are really lucky this didn’t line up perfectly. If the trough had of gone negative 12 hours earlier, a couple of these tornadoes could have been high end. .
  25. PowellVolz
    What’s the forecast timeline for teleconnecters? 3 weeks? .
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