PowellVolz

There could be some PType issues there but that was before the NAM just ran. All of that might have just changed. .

I believe MRX mentioned something like that either this morning or yesterday. I was looking at the 500 MB maps earlier and I noticed what looked like the possibility of some divergence aloft with a slight split flow on the right exit of that jet. I didn’t say anything about it because I wasn’t sure how much was enough to make a difference. .

I should have been more specific and said the border counties. I feel like everything north of a line from Cleveland Tn to the Tn/AL/Ga intersection is in warning criteria IMO. .

I’m thinking MRX might wait until tomorrow afternoon for the southern valley hazards. .

Bring it .

I actually think west Knoxville is in a great location .

The 15-20 miles between us and TYS is pretty significant for this system IMO. .

I actually feel better this afternoon than I did this morning. .

That’s a great point. The exact flow or stream of moisture (direction) would probably determine which micro climates could come into play. .

Yes I agree. I think someone in this area….. .

Anyone else feel like there’s an opportunity for someone in the valley to over perform? .

But since we are not dealing with sinking air, it would be much easier to overcome with rate driven dynamics IMO. .

I can’t remember the date of this storm but (maybe 2017-2019) it feels like this outcome could be a similar situation. It was a snow/rain/snow forecast for the valley, heavy snow on the plateau with mostly rain in the foothills because of downsloping. The warm nose made it to I-40 in Knoxville up against the mountains but did not make it any further NW. I ended up with over 8”. The thought was we had a little CAD up against the eastern slopes of the Plateau that backed up into the valley. John got blasted that event. I remember watching the temps rise as the day went on. Gatlinburg was low 40’s, Knoxville made it to 35° but I stayed below 30. One of those rare times when the cold air won out in the valley. .

I’m I reading this correctly that MRX isn’t really all that concerned with PType issues outside of the lowest elevations of the southern valley? .

If this stays as is I like where I’m located. .

I don’t blame her at all. However one thing I believe that would help the local weather people in these situations is to show the viewers more than one solution and explain the difference. At this range they could show more than one accumulation map. .

Huge win for Tennessee .

I never would have imagined we would have temp issues .

WVLT is riding with the NAM it looks like. .

I didn’t look at the temps but I’m guessing the GFS thinks the front is ahead of schedule? .

I showed my wife all the mods. She picked the 3k NAM would probably be right. I’m packing her bags now. .

Also… im not sure it’s gonna make it to the low 40’s today. It’s 30.8 at my house. .

My buddy in Jackson is saying Memphis NWS thinks this is interstate 40 and south. Tells me they don’t like the NAM. .

Update from MRX… .

The HRW mods… don’t they have a NAM influence to them? They are much further SE than the NAM. More in line with the RGEM. .