UMB WX

Whenever Detroit starts moving forward something happens to **** up the momentum.

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna be near/over 500 US deaths today.  Really should be putting to rest any questions about whether restrictive measures were necessary.  

Blind if we didn't see it coming 16 yrs before 2016. Its mind boggling how how Bat Shizt Crazy blind +50% of America has been trained.  Sad state we're in.  Hug your loved ones all. Be Best.

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

That activity across MO/AR/OK/TX is tied to a subtle wave that will rapidly push NE 15-18z.

I noticed the wave on the NAM last evening, but didn’t think much of it until runs of the HRRR caught on to it and started showing activity with it.

And here we sit now this morning with a large corridor of activity across the aforementioned areas, that will push across the areas of interested through early afternoon.

This definitely is a failure mode, and will likely prevent today from being what it could have been.


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Excellent if it comes to fruition.  Last thing communities need right now is more widespread devastation and body bags. 

Blue prints were all over for the taking and here we are with barely a test available and short on even basic supplies still.   Unexcusable 

Yes China screwed up.  To bad nobody was interested in taking notes as to what China was was doing to fix their mistakes, to stop the spread, and save their people. 

We seen the fire coming but did nothing to prepare.   

Without early detection and isolation of the infected I'd love to hear how the US contains this. This is a cluster**** right now that didn't have to be at this level. That's what happens when you try to cover it up and try an pull a fast one on us.  

29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

americans are gonna lose their minds when the multi day period of 1,000+ daily death commences 

lotta folks living in denial yet.  Hate to see it.

4 pages. lol winter 2020. Beavis for President.  Good thing the UP cleaned up early with system snow.

lol this winter whooped cyclones tail.. Never thought I'd see the day he'd lead the spring brigade starting weeks ago.

I'd take stranded in that cave.  Expected a map uglier than that after the comment, caved.

19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I will say the shift se wasnt as substantial this run and some models are coming in a tick juicier. 

How much farther south and slower can the main wave really go from here?  Maybe its just the garbage GFS and NAM catching up. sheesh I would think models could have figured that wave out by now. Have to the think the bleeding has stopped there and we're at worst case something close to the 18z euro. 

11 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

It would have to be a massive collapse to the SE for us to get whiffed.  Really it's been the NCEP guidance, and to a lesser extend the GEM/EURO, correcting to what the UKIE has shown all along (which has been a decent hit for us).  Honestly, like I previously implied, I'd be more worried about a bit of a correction back to the NW giving us mixing issues than a Harrisburg special.

Yeah wouldn't take much of a speed up at all to frig things up either.  SE bleeding can only go so dam far right? One would have thought it would be over by now but with nothing connecting this is where we are.

Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

NAM verbatim = biggest storm of the winter for Toronto.  We have more wiggle room with further SE shifts than with a NW bump, so it's fortunate that's the trend. 

Yeah se trend is your friend. You're in a very intriguing spot. GL!

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

If the original northern wave can stop trending slower/south, the 2nd northern wave diving into the Lakes has been trending further south...Could give DET crew hope of goods still. 


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Exactly.. Looked like it was trending slightly slower south before hr 30.   hr 33 doesn't look too hot. or 36. Frustrating.

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks to be due to our main northern wave digging more southward into the Plains, and in turn phasing later with the 2nd wave diving SE into the Lakes.

So many chances blown in this one. Maybe Buffalo will score.

Uh yeah.

11 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Actually this will be the third snow storm of 6 inches or more. This is actually very routine for the northern suburbs of Detroit extremely routine the statement couldn’t be further from the truth. Just a really poor attempt at a joke. Now a big dog for this area is definitely 10-18  inches but we never touch 18 inches but we usually cap off at about 17 at the highest

10 to 18? lol.  More like  a 8-12" forecast considering how shitty of a climo Detroit south is for big storms.

Send the hate mail their way

24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

@RCNYILWX could go into it further if he wants, but yea kind of.

Ugh, yeah what a headache for them when they have to play  the hands they're dealt.

GFS was such a detriment to this storm...NAM playing footsie with a late night hookup from canada gets denied.  Euro is still steady eddie but can call in sick when you need its services the most. To be fair to the models this was a pretty delicate high potential impact storm that just found every way possible to not come together in time.

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

And that's an understatement.

I'm sure many if not all at LOT would like to paint that map a different way   Are they Handcuffed from making bigger changes than they would like to?

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

updated LOT.

looks reasonable if there was any confidence.

10 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Not gonna have confidence till the flakes are done falling. In the bullseye right now, but that south trend may not be done 

EPS mean and control:

 

Take it to the bank.  At least it's still interesting for the far east sub and I'm really curious what SSC and the Toronto posters end up with.

lol reeled in a goldfish 

It's been so close to a monster at some point in 3 days from Iowa to MI.   Just can't get it too hook up for nothing.