UMB WX

14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Jelly

Would be impressive from high up in the TIH&T

Text book white rain out there with a few wet spitballs mixed in.

12 minutes ago, Baum said:

my favorite part was where they project ALEK may bust high..." immediate downtown may stay a rain/snow mix"....

55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We already know that though.    I'm talking about somebody coming in on the low end or less than forecast/modeled.  On the 18z NAM it is more like Milwaukee instead of Chicago on the RAP.

I've prepped for this exact situation. I'm old and have seen how this can kind of event more than likely plays out.

Nice steady rain cleaning up the driveway nicely 

^he gets it

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

I agree that max amounts it shows of 6-7" are likely too high.

2-5" is the safer call.

of course most know how to interpret the snow maps and take them with a grain of salt in each event situation.   The euro paints the picture of 2-5" and the likely areas with the better chance of hitting the higher end.

Just now, wisconsinwx said:

We know the Euro will be too high for most areas.  I think Alek has HBY well handled.

why would the euro be to high unless you're the 1% along the lake

On 1/18/2020 at 8:27 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

Ride the Euro. 

GEFS mean and members look decently interesting enough. 

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

u know it's coming

 

Mocked for even looking at P&C.  MetFan stuff there

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

The lake had no affect on things.


.

he's learning.  If its dancing lessons you need he's your man.

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

tth

it could go either way but I'm favoring you overcome the odds and it pounds long enough to get you at least 2" and possibly several 

19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

wasn't even close, torching at 37 here already

can't wait to see you Jeb walk snow pics tomorrow.  Radar is going to be lit up down south.

17 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

But this kind of trend has occurred several times this year, so it would be fair to predict lower amounts if you live along the lake like Alek.  Heck much of Milwaukee County was mix/rain overnight.  UHI + warm lake = lethal combo against snow.

lol our drizzle had no chance of snow

alek ftw

2" just measured on north facing patio. we wont go measure the south facing driveway lol. wet driveway and roads after shoveling and plows came through 3 hrs ago. shades of the fall snows. Nice seeing snow fall all morning though.

p&c lol.  he has no material for this one anymore

terrible troll roll there.

The gfs not run

Crawl out of bed to relieve myself and thought why wouldn't I check the forum real quick also.  Hopefully the Euro brings out a little chatter.

Hi

wisconsinwx's  1st call looking cash$. He'll never forget again to undercut se wind event snow totals.

wisconsinwx   8:17 first pixie.

tough call if flakes fly before the bank closes in chicago.

19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its as if its become a staple to just say the models back down at the last minute whether they do or dont.

 

Our 9" snowstorm on Nov 11 was forecast at 3-5 the day before. If this one does well, it too will have gotten better the closer we got, not worse.

Detroit/southern burbs  are famous for cleaning up the shit left behind here at closing time of tracking.  Stebo had this a trash storm. When its wagons west we all know its shit and there are rarely late surprises. This is a funky one back this way.

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I-80 south somehow outsnows the metro area on the GFS.  Oh yeah, keeps wisconsinwx's MKE call in play too.

I have him freaked out about dry air for mke. pixie storm

Another excellent AFD from the LOT crew.  SE winds have scared me for life  sitting near the lake- shrugs.  Yesterday we got the bleeding to stop as expected and now another day of stable or better modeling would be good for the psyche.  

Alex ran the nam.