Warm Nose

This has high bust potential written on it ... I suspect we'll see a lot of disappointed people in the Obs thread come Wed morning.

This is setting up for a classic letdown when folks expect 6-8 sub-wide. 3-5 for most is the bar, I think, and we should be very happy with that if it verifies.

Ya'll realize you be postin' on a troll model, right?

Given most of the Sub is 4"-8" 48 hours out, even when you cut the usual 20% totals hype from wishcasting that would still be a 3"-5" event. Take.

Agree, time to put a stake in January ...

Temperature inversion! 11 degrees while stations lower are 5, 3.

11

11/-5

I think that meets 'BUST' criteria ...

RGEM yesterday. Honestly not too far off - the thermals wrecked things east of 15.

Down to 27 here now. Cleared the driveway with the snowblower but the pixie dust has made everything really crunchy.

To the Mets on the board, what's the post-mortem for this one? Seems once the front took more time it screwed up the thermals resulting in a bunch of wasted QPF, not to mention the QPF itself was less amped than predicted.

29.5 and a some light pixie dust, but 97.935% over here.

West of Round Hill.

Pretty much done here. About 3.75" and will be under the prog'd totals, but I suspect everyone will be.

Back edge is racing this way - I suspect we'll be largely done by 5:30p

Can't stress this enough - rates are going to have to be big to get stuff to stick. Surface temps are above freezing and there's melting. If the rates dip, the snow's going to also melt as a result, at least until the colder temps arrive. It's snowing pretty good here but pavement and other surfaces are melting and I hear the water flowing down the gutters.

With surface temps still above 32, if the rates lessen up it's all melting. Pavement was caving and then rates slacked up and the pavement won. Same for other surfaces as well. Any accums will be rate-dependent today.

Thanks goodness it's not wasted ...

Decent steady rate here for the last 45 minutes or so. It's wet though pavement is caving.

I just took a trip to the store from Western Loudoun up and over Blue Ridge mountain to Berryville and then back about 30 minutes later. Surface temps here were around 36 when I left with very light drizzle/mangled snow. At the top of Clarke's Gap at 31 deg the mangled frizzle turned into actual SN. Back down on the other side the surface is sitting just above 32 with more light SnowTV/White rain but nothing is sticking anywhere. It was that way until I got back to the top of the mountain where it was 31 and I started to see some stickage. Back down on the Eastern foothills of the BR it's 34 and the rate has increased somewhat to where I'm getting minor accumulation on concrete and grass. It's all SN here at this point though I am at 800' and right on the edge it seems. Bottom line - this batch is pretty to look at but not going to really do anything for accums so don't expect much at this stage. If temps dip a few degrees and rates pick up then it could be another story.

Writing is on the wall ... We'll do the usual justifying, discounting, hoping etc. and then reality will set in.

37 Lord help us when Ji wakes up ...