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yep ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 814 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT. * AT 814 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CANTON, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.

many of those cells now TOR warned.... storms really increasing HRRR has discrete cells merging into a semi complex later ..... dew points are on the rise after mixing out some

storms getting going now in central MO..several hooking

TOR watch for me and SW looks like there is a mini dew point front moving north....where dew points are 68-69 south versus 59-61north....CU field in MO developing on the leading edge models start backing winds more SSE. around 23-0z as a mini low forms I-72 baby (you can never go wrong)

00z RUC and HRRR models actually increase instabily the next few hours...perhaps from cooling aloft .... HRRR also breaks out cells ahead of the line.....as mentioned by SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND FAR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 67... VALID 142342Z - 150045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 67 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 67. DISCUSSION...A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN CENTRAL MARYLAND. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 67 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THE LOW-TOPPED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING, THE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE, AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE THREAT FROM THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND 01Z.

so there was a train of three...the first one was the original TOR warned storm...its gone....the current TOR warned storms is the "second" one....and the hooky one behind that #3 now is there #4 west of number #3 now,,another mini storm and perhaps even a 5th south of #4 now along the river ?

I don't get it should have been warned long ago edit: ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 731 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 815 PM EDT. * AT 731 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WESTMINSTER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

I'm surpassed it isn't TOR wanted...tight rotation....perhaps a small CC drop?

had a hook a few sans ago..also a third mini storm on its tail too

actually the set up doesn't look too shaby......lets see if the first round goes nuts

5 inch contours back on 7 day click for this mornings update The MS river at Baton Rouge, without the rain factored in, crest 44 feet .... top 5

Expected Rainfall Amounts Thursday Night through Sunday Afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will generally range from around 2.5 inches to around 3.5 inches. These expected rainfall amounts may have an affect on area rivers. These expected rainfall amounts are preliminary and subject to change.

lake cumberland 749.65 feet down .95 or .04/hr (inflow increased form rain slowed the fall) if the lake falls 1.2 ft per day we will be at 746 at 10z friday near the start of the "wet period" Center hill dam (the other big pool) also still very full and the rains have also slowed its fall its at 670.6 ft , it peaked at 678 or so..the top of the spillway is 785 on Feb 18th it was at 635 so it is still 35 feet higher then 3 weeks ago and only 15 feet from the top of the spillway (or secondary overflow)

Lake Cumberland at this time is back down to the old record high it fell 1.38 ft 24 hours ending at 5am..or .058/hr assuming a 1.5 foot drop per day the lake will be at 744.37 at 11z friday ..near the start of the wet period..the also seem to be SLOWLY backing down the outflow in baby steps..now 57,100 down from 59,800 looks like a general 1/2 to inch over most of TN today heavier south of the TVA watershed

12z NAM shifted south ..still hits E TN go0d but not Cumberland so much at 5am lake cumberland 753.25 down down 1.35 ft or .056/hr past 24 hours odds are the southern solutions will pan out...

yep..nice "dry" spell yesterdays rains missed the cumberland watershed but not TN river........ HSV : HUNTSVILLE AIRPORT : 1.12 MSL : MUSCLE SHOALS ARPT : 0.91 KCHA .48 TVS .25 lake Cumberloand at 5am down 1 foot the past 24 hours or .042/hr 754.6 at 5am

still building a wall near/under that tower...locals are saying truck after truck of rocks still coming in today .I wonder if the are prepping it for even higher releases

Cumberland at 5am 755.61 down .65 feet or .027/hr the past 24 hours some light rain today weekend system may slow/stall fall models continue to hint at more active set up 9-10 days

Tennessee Valley Authority ‏ Verified account @TVAnews 3h3 hours ago More River Update: We are increasing releases out of tributary dams to recover flood storage in preparation for the next rain event, so you can expect to see above normal river flows below those dams. (1-3) Further downstream on Kentucky Lake, we continue to work with the Army Corps of Engineers to control releases out of Kentucky Dam because of flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Water levels on Kentucky Lake could rise as much as eight feet above summer pool. (3-3)

new EURO looks pumped and north.........?

they are going to do step 1 today..the most common...open Bonnet Carré Spillway above New orleans step two would be to divert flow at Red river landing above Baton Rouge ..The red river..( the one in Tx and Ok) used to flow into the MS river at that point....but now is diverted south into the Gulf...since the MS river is at a higher elevation they can divert alot of water there... the third and most extreme is to blow the levee on the west bank right below Cairo IL...this floods much of the low lying area of the boothill of MO..they only have done this 2 times..last in 2011..and i think once in the 1930's..it can only be used once a season as the bowl will fill up also see this article they said 1.250 million cfs per second is the flow that triggers step one..way down south as of right now a huge 478,000 cfs is coming out of Barkley (cumberland)and Kentucky Lake(TN basin) alone..the lakes are rising well above summers pools becasue inflow is still higher...Barkley is releasing 136,000 cfs into the OH/MS Cumberland is 59,000 of that.. in a perfect would Cumberland would be releasing ZERO..and Barkley and Kentucky much lower NEW ORLEANS (WWL-TV) — For the third time in four years the Bonnet Carré Spillway will be opened Wednesday to the projected flow of water down the Mississippi River, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. According to the Corps of Engineers web site, this will be the first time that the spillway has been opened in consecutive years. The Corps anticipates opening approximately 38 bays Wednesday, possibly increasing it to 200 bays over time. The Spillway is used to divert water flow from the Mississippi River and send it toward Lake Pontchartrain when the water flow gets too high. Boyett says that projected flows indicate an opening in the middle of next week, likely Thursday, February 28. The ‘trigger’ for an opening is a projected river flow of 1.25 million cubic feet per second, which is what the New Orleans river levees are designed to handle. Anything above that level means the spillway is opened. The spillway has opened several times in recent years, including: 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018. https://www.klfy.com/news/louisiana/update-corps-to-open-bonnet-carre-spillway-wednesday/1808660331

Cumberland at 5am 756.26 down .26 (or .01/hr) past 24 hours the OHIO and Mississippi rivers are now moderate to major flooding in many places...on the lower MS..may not crest for weeks... that is without any more rain factored in.. the NWS flood forecast for the mid MS river came out yesterday....lots of snow in the upper basin..soil moisture and stream flow high..major flooding likley going to be trouble for a long time now there are 3 steps they will take to lower impacts if they have to protect places like New Orleans and Baton Rouge but more on those later got to get these lake levels down ASAP.. need a drought .the incoming rain won't help