janetjanet998

lake Cumberland getting a train of Moderate rain now...models increase the rates overnight in this band (or reform it),,location is the only question...flood warnings for the eastern part of the watershed from rainfall this morning.. (up to an inch) 2/22/2019 8 AM 747.88 35,960 +.04 2/22/2019 9 AM 747.98 35,960 +.10 2/22/2019 10 AM 748.00 35,960 +.02 2/22/2019 11 AM 748.05 35,960 +.05 2/22/2019 noon 748.10 35,960 +.05

so far no heavy rain Current State of Lake Cumberland FEBRUARY 22, 2019 LEAVE A COMMENT The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to monitor stream conditions throughout the Cumberland River Basin and to manage the release of water from its 10 dams, including Wolf Creek Dam on Lake Cumberland, as heavy rain continues to impact the region this week.The basin has received two to five inches of rain over the past four days, four to seven inches of rain over the past seven days, and seven to 12 inches of rain over the past month. The latest forecast from the National Weather Service calls for three to four inches of rainfall in the next 72 hours. At this time, long-term forecasts are more positive with little precipitation expected beyond the next 72 hours. Lake Cumberland’s elevation is was over 746 at the last Corps report late Thursday afternoon. The flood control pool extends from elevation 723 to 760 and is currently 60 percent full. The Corps says the lake will continue to rise for the next several days ahead of the rainfall as inflows currently exceed outflows. Current discharge at the dam is now 35,000 cfs. The pool of record is 751.69 back in 1984. Many of the roadways leading to the lake have been closed off and the public is urged to be cautious when approaching these areas. ---------------------------- Lake Cumberland hits second-highest elevation in history and is expected to keep rising The water elevation at Lake Cumberland has hit a level seen only three times since Wolf Creek Dam was finished nearly 70 years ago, and is approaching a record with continued rain expected. The level as of 8 a.m. Friday was 747.84 feet above sea level, according to the U.S Army Corps of Engineers. The only other times the lake level has topped 745 feet were in April 1962, when it hit 747.12, and in May 1984, when it was 751.69, the record. Under typical conditions, the lake fills to a level of 700 feet to 723 feet by mid-May.

seems hr focus is a little more west for now EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 957 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2019 DAY 1 VALID 15Z FRI FEB 22 2019 - 12Z SAT FEB 23 2019 ...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF MS, AR, AL AND TN... 15Z UPDATE: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AXIS AND METEOROLOGICAL SETUP WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT HIGH RISK. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS IN GOES-16, REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, AND SURFACE/VWP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST GREATER MOISTURE FLUX/CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM AS FAR WEST AS EXTREME EASTERN TX. HI-RES CAMS PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND ARW/ARW2/NMMB ALSO INDICATE THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRAINING ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY, EVENTUALLY TRAINING INTO AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED OVERNIGHT IN SE AR AND N MS. WHILE, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE A BIT DRIER OVER E TX, N LA, SW AR, THIS GROWING QPF SIGNAL AND DEEP MOISTURE FLUX (AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT) SUPPORT A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK TO THE TX/LA BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGH RISK WAS PULLED WESTWARD, AS WELL, CLIPPING SE AR, WHERE THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACTIVE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE MODERATE RISK WAS PULLED BACK TO THE

they have increased outflow at Wolf Creek up to 39,000 at one point. (all time record 40K)...this has slowed the rise and so far no heavy rain is helping too lake up another 2.71 feet the past 24 hours an average of .0112 per hour..at 4am the lake is .67 feet behind my "overflow post" and not rising the .12 per hour for today....so things looking better...I think they got more aggressive with the outflows when crunching numbers...they implied a week ago ago they had plenty of flood storage and wouldn't increase to 35.000 until it stopped raining...so something changed 2/22/2019 1 AM 747.52 35,860 2/22/2019 2 AM 747.58 35,860 +.06 2/22/2019 3 AM 747.65 39,860 +.07 2/22/2019 4 AM 747.71 35,860 +.06 2/22/2019 5 AM 747.76 35,960 +.05 2/22/2019 6 AM 747.81 35,960 +.05

12z and 18z NAM products= bad 00z = "hold my beer" all depends on placement ..and nowcasting.....NAM with a stripe of 6- 7 inches from Northern MS into TN ..the odd part is it has very little precip in that area thru 06z ..yet heavy rain there now Namnest actually keeps a lot of the max precip south and west of the TVA watershed (west Tn and N MS) no update from TVA about Cumberland since 2..but NWS river data suggest rate of rise slowing to perhaps .1 an hour?

it looks like Corps is finally seeing what I was pointing out and have increased outflows from the Lake Cumberland to 33K..will they keep it up as the system moves in though? On the Friday media report they said they will only increase to 35,000 cfs when "conditions allow" to help downstream flooding....that means they wouldn't do it with heavy rains in the forecast I wonder what changed..mmmmmmm..believe me that they don't want this water going down the river at this point unless they have too for a reason 2/21/2019 noon 746.35 29,380 +.15 2/21/2019 1 PM 746.50 30,700. +.15 2/21/2019 2 PM 746.65 33,060. +.15 this should have been done earlier IMO..Friday they said it would take 48 hours to build a flood wall....so Monday or Tuesday they should have been ready to increase but they dropped it to 25K instead

18z NAM best case for Cumberland as it keep the train south(current obs and short range models agree) and north with the last part ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TN...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PLUS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL... 21z update... After collaborating with WFOs JAN/MEG/OHX/HUN, a High Risk was assigned to portions of south central TN, northeast MS and far northern Alabama for Day 2. The main reason for the upgrade is the saturated antecedent conditions across these areas. In many spots, rivers are in flood, and the most recent National Water Model showed a large area of very high streamflows from previous activity. The aforementioned offices indicated that as little as 1.00 inches of rainfall in three hours could have significant impacts. As surface low pressure tracks from the TX Panhandle into the Mid MS Valley, a 35/45 knot low level southwest flow transports 1.50 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three standard deviations above the mean) and 500 J/KG of MUCAPE along a frontal boundary moving north across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. The combination of moisture and instability could result in convection with hourly rainfall rates in excess of 1.00 (as seen in the 12z NAM CONUS Nest and the 12z WRF ARW) over the aforementioned areas. This would be sufficient to cause significant flooding issues where storms training (which is possible, given that the 850-300 mb mean wind becomes better aligned with the propagation vectors). Hayes

if that train sets up the typical WSW to ENE fashion then I assume the cumberland watershed above(SE of the lake) the lake gets that too..or at least a toned down version

well I assumed the rate of rise would level off by now and it looked like that was happening. as the rate fell to .14 feet per hr this morning for a few hours..but the last few hours rate is increasing again( not on TVA site yet but will be soon) It could be the crest wave off the main stem is hitting the lake and this is more then the decline in other inflows.. another wild card is Laruel River lake...this is a dammed up area for Flood control with no spillway in the watershed ..I have seen You-tube videos of it overflowing in the past but can't find any info on its current status...did it just start to overflow? has it been all along? not yet? I'm not sure if TVA is legally bind to keep the combined runoff flows from Wolf Creek, Dale Hollow and the 500 sq miles of local runoff maxed 40.000 cfs..the articles I found just implies that is procedure but as I pointed out they are wasting time and water but not moving outflow up to 35,000 now...as they planned last friday

all going into the lake of course...looks like the river at williamaburg just upstream from that has peaked for now..but a second peak similar to the one today is in the forecast plots...it will go even higher if training happens again .lots of replies on facebook on that post...I think as time goes on more and more people may question if the lake will over flow...amd there will be hype and panic on social media even it is does all that MAY happen is it will spill over a little and really have no more outflow(since by then inflow should be much lower then now) then it does now assuming the shut the gates and just let it go? but it is going to be a battle all spring to get the flood control storage back in the upper Cumberland basin for any huge spring events 2/21/2019 9 AM 745.92 26,040 +.25 2/21/2019 10 AM 746.05 26,130 +.13 A slight uptick in outflow,(about 500 since this morning),this is what happened when it increased to 29K before but just a drop i the bucket to what is needed edit: outflow increased again 2/21/2019 11 AM 746.20 +.15 28,420

Time for for some math ( in a hurry I made have made errors) 2/21/2019 4 AM CST 745.00 25,850 2/21/2019 5 AM CST 745.18 25,940 +.18 2/21/2019 6 AM CST 745.36 25,940 +.18 the lake has risen an average of .18 feet per hour ending at 4am and amazing 4.32 feet..the max rolling 24 period will be higher then that even The corps has a major problem..Dale Hollow 655.25. just downstream, has zero outflow right now...and rising fast too.. up almost 2.95 feet on 24 hours..it overflows at 661 feet..came within inches in a few times in the past..outflow of 5,000 keeps the lake steady it seems,,,but that is 5000 that takes away from Wolf Creek outflow If the Cumberland lake averages .14 an hr rise the next 24 hrs 4 am-4am from that 745 level .14 rise per hour ending 10z Friday that's 748.36 no more rain .12 average rise the next 24 hours 751.24 mod-heavy rains widepread training? .16 the next 24 hours 755.08 record smashed light rain to scattered heavy stuff with the line of storms .14 next 24 hours 758.04 no more rain but still rising fast from old rain .04 per hour the next 24 hours 759.4 no rain .02 per hour the next 24 hours 759.88 no rain .01 per hour the next 24 hours 760.12 lake overspills here 10z thursday Feb 28th no rain now some days like tommrow I may have over estimated rises, and some days underestimated ..but you can take away some one day but add it to the next set of numbets. etc etc ...the lake may still be rising at .08 inch per hour or so before the next batch of rain starts adding to it too The above assumes the basin gets trained again..12z NAM (usually NW) keeps that just SE of the basin 2/21/2019 7 AM 745.50 25,940 +.14 2/21/2019 8 AM 745.65 25,940 +.15

WOW...only 8 feet from the record....still climbing fast....hopefully the train will stay south and the last part north....the GFS is disturbing with 2-3+ inches at 760 it spills over the top of the spillway...(again may not get there this time but later in the spring?) .this isn't Oroville where it spills on to a hillside and erodes it away but still.....there will be no flood control at that point.. if it is like any other situation there is a control plan that you do X, Y, and Z when A, B and C happens the control plan likely says no more then X amount of outflow when there is so many inches of future predicted rains for downstream flood control... that is likely why they dropped outflows to 25K from 29K and have delayed the increase to 35K they mentioned last Friday... but every hour of these lower outflows means an extra hour of 5-10 or even 15K cfs(if they eventually increase to the record 40K) that they will have to make up in the future 2/20/2019 6 PM 742.86 25,560. +.26 2/20/2019 7 PM 743.07 25,560. +.21 2/20/2019 8 PM 743.29 25,650. +.22 2/20/2019 9 PM 743.49 25,740 +.2 2/20/2019 10 PM 743.73 25,660. +.24

following Oroville , DWR said that the peak inflows, or lake level rises, into a lake occur a few hours after peak rainfall rates...then the rate of rise starts to decline without any more rain but .22 feet per hour for a lake the size of Cumberland is crazy, especially at these high levels since it takes more volume of water to raise it per foot the higher it is since the lake is shaped like the letter V the 6pm TVA data is flawed but the NWS river graph hints that may be even higher then a .22 rise between 5 and 6 2/20/2019 3 PM 742.18 25,420. +.18 2/20/2019 4 PM 742.38 25,510 +.20 2/20/2019 5 PM 742.60. 25,470. +.22

I think Corps and river forecast center uses the WPC rainfall maps....if you get training like happened this morning it throws it into chaos, any press releases or forecast released that day are based on the lower general WPC numbers released at 3am...that is why sometimes these people are behind the curve... for example ...look at the Cumberland river level forecast upstream of the lake...even though they were updated this afternoon...they are getting blown away.... Wolf creek Dam was repaired...by putting in a very deep cut off wall to stop seepage and leaking out of the earth part....but at least those leaks and seepage relieved pressure...so it will be interesting to see what happens since the pressure has to go somewhere else... Lewisville Dam near Dallas( big trouble there a few years ago). I know they actually dig pressure release wells...but thats a different set up...(no bedrock there just dirt) I have no idea what will happen if the entire watershed get 5 inches....it will be a nowcast thing to see where training sets up ..again most of the water shed is SE of the lake ..even a few miles north of the actual lake is out of the water shed

I didn't see the Euro map mentioned ,,,but 5 more inches from N MS to Jackson KY sounds like Lake Cumberland watershed more info on the latest With the additional rainfall expected this week, reaching elevation 750 is possible. The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984. In the history of Wolf Creek Dam, which spans back to 1950, elevation 745 has been exceeded twice – 747.12 in April 1962 and the pool of record. “This winter has been an unprecedented event in that we continue to see rainfall events and have not had enough consecutive dry days to regain storage in the reservoir, nor have downstream conditions been conducive to increasing discharges from the dam,” said Robert Dillingham, hydraulic engineer in the Nashville District Water Management Section. “It remains a priority for the Nashville District to lower Lake Cumberland and regain the flood control storage in the reservoir as soon as downstream conditions allow.” Dillingham said the Nashville District has made preparations downstream to allow releases from Lake Wolf Creek Dam, which will likely be larger than have been observed in several decades. “Releases from the reservoir will be increased and we plan to lower the reservoir as soon as possible,” Dillingham added. “However, considering March and April are historically the highest precipitation months, it could take several months before Lake Cumberland returns to a seasonal elevation.” https://milfeed.com/2019/02/20/corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/

you can see these wet areas in old youtube videos too...and even when the lake is low..the concrete is stained...similar to if your ceiling ever leaked then dried Nashville District ‏ Verified account @NashvilleCorps Follow Follow @NashvilleCorpsjavascript:void('8') More #NashvilleCorps dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in #Jamestown #Kentucky is in danger of imminent failure https://www.lrn.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/1762058/nr-19-006-corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/ … #WaterManagement #DamSafety #USACE #LakeCumberland NR 19-006: Corps of Engineers dispels Wolf Creek Dam safety rumors NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 20, 2019) – The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District is dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., is in danger of imminent failure. A local radio station commentator put out false information this morning that Wolf Creek Dam could fail at any time and local residents downstream needed to formulate an evacuation plan. “This is completely false,” said Kyle Hayworth, Dam Safety Program Manager with the Nashville District. “The dam is not failing. There have been no signs of distress with the project, and our dam safety staff has been and will continue to monitor all of the Cumberland River Basin dams throughout this high-water event.” The Corps of Engineers is also aware of a social media video making its rounds that shows water leaking from the concrete face of the dam, and is addressing similar public fears, letting people know there is no reason for alarm. “The water observed seeping out of the concrete is at a joint where drainage systems relieve internal pressures inside the dam,” said Brad Long, acting chief of the Nashville District’s Civil Design Branch. “It is not a dam safety concern. It will likely continue until the pool elevation returns to normal levels.” The Nashville District is posting the very latest updates on its website and on Lake Cumberland’s Facebook page. The public is highly encouraged to seek out these resources for reliable information about water management, operations at the dam, and impacts around the lake.

it is going to a battle with lake Cumberland all spring....the lake this year, and early winter 2018, has peaks and valleys similar to that stair step river crest post,,, but over a longer time span.. but each valley is higher when it starts raining again ..it may peak a few days after it stops raining say early next week....fall 10-13 feet when it is dry for a week....but if it turns wet again it will start at a higher level maybe about where it is now perhaps? better hope after a dry period after next week too..so it can get down closer to the full summer pool 723..only 9 feet from the record and only 19 feet from spilling over the top of the spillway....which may not be in play this time...but if we get a repeat of this in a couple weeks who knows... record outflow is 40,000 ..holding at 25,000 ....down from 29,000 yesterday,,,, so do they dump more water now thinking about the very long term later in the spring? they really can't because of the next storm you mentioned /20/2019 noon 741.62 25,330 2/20/2019 1 PM 741.80 25,330 2/20/2019 2 PM 742.00 25,420

SOMERSET Heavy rains the last few days have pushed Lake Cumberland to a level not seen in more than 20 years. The elevation of the lake surface was 741.62 feet above sea level at noon on Wednesday, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It was last at that level in 1998, when it hit 742.4 feet. Continued rain could push the lake to 750 feet, according to the corps. https://www.kentucky.com/news/state/kentucky/article226520435.html

Cairo crest forecast 54.5 11th all time Paducah 51.5 8th

still no updated crest numbers for the OH Lake Cumberland hit hard, in fact you couldn't ask for a better train set up..most of the watershed is to the SE of the lake and that is exactly the area that got hit with 2-3 inches over much of the basin 10 feet from the record 2/20/2019 9 AM 741.06 25,150 2/20/2019 10 AM 741.26 25,240 2/20/2019 11 AM 741.42 25,240 2/20/2019 noon 741.62 25,330

Lake cumberland stats (last column outflow) ..getting trained now 10.8 feet from record high,,,only the 8th time above 740 feet 2/20/2019 6 AM 740.75 25,060 2/20/2019 7 AM 740.84 25,060 2/20/2019 8 AM 740.94 25,060

12z NAM hits them with another train tommrow night/friday too..

the seems to be a loosely organized convective system over MS. with he head near the MS/TN/AL state line .the warm front of this is what is training over central TN..up the cumberland basin..the "cold front" is pushing more east but still training later it looks like lake cumberland rising rapidly now 1-2.5 inches fell along the OH river last night the levels at Paducha and Cairo are spiking well above forecast points now flash flood warnings for nashville

1.4 at KCHA so far 2.24 KHSV there is a precip min north of this from Nashville to lake Cumberland watershed...between the more heavy precip near the MS river 00z NAM troubling for central TN...in.later periods(may change to a different location)