janetjanet998

I think the GFS and GEFS had a NW flow for a few runs after next weekend for a bit yesterday,,but seems more flat now..and in end of the run is back tiothe same pattern

Hunstville ... AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FROM GUIDANCE 3+ DAYS OUT, THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NOW APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO THE STALLING FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD WITHOUT RAIN. RAIN TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD 5-8", WITH ISOLATED AREAS POTENTIALLY 10"+. IT IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONGER CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN ABNORMALLY CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY RETREAT AGAIN OVER THE TN VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG STORMS NEXT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ESTIMATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE 1-2" ON TOP OF WHAT WE EXPECT THIS WEEK. CURRENT ANALOGIES BEING USED ARE THE FLOODING EXPERIENCED ON CHRISTMAS IN 2015, AND POTENTIALLY AS BAD AS THE SPRING FLOODS OF 2003.

00z NAM NW with the first wave.(well second wave if you count tomorrow as the first)..max of 3.25 inches or so in southern KY thru 84 hour still 1.5 to 2.5 over much of eastern TN very little of it falls outside the OH valley watershed (aka south of TN river) and more over KY near the river itself

info on the 2003 event The Major to Record Flooding of May 2003 across East Tennessee During the four day rain event (beginning at midnight on May 5th and ending at midnight on May 8th), a bull’s eye of over twelve inches of rain was reported in McMinn County, TN at both Etowah and Athens. The heaviest rains fell during the first 35 hours (midnight May 5th through 11:00 P.M. May 6th), where 11.6 and 11.1 inches fell at Etowah and Athens, respectively. Storm total rainfall of greater than six inches fell somewhere in each county south of a Sevier to Morgan County line. In the Little Tennessee River and Hiwassee River basins, greater than nine inches fell during the entire event. All of this water drained into Watts Bar and Chickamauga Lakes, which eventually flowed down to Chattanooga. https://www.weather.gov/mrx/may03flood

well yesterday it was reported flows would be reduced from Kentucky lake and Barkley into the OHIO river...so far outflows from the combined dams have only dropped from a combined 323,000 cfs to 280,000 cfs which is still a huge amount they also are still releasing 177,000 from Pickwick I (was 114K 2-14) into basically the start of Kentucky Lake...and the downstream hydrography suggest they may increase it? plus another 10K from buffalo and Duck the Cumberland river into Barkley is at 74,000 bfs at Dover, so a combined 261,000 cfs plus local runoff going into Ky lake and Barkley) ...180,000 out the OH river will crest soon at Cairo at 52 feet, the 20th highest on record (61.7 2011) and hold steady for 5- 6 days before falling that is WITHOUT most of next weeks rain factored in.....which is creeping more north into more of the OH valley ,,,each run... you can bet they are heaving heated discussions on what to do with all of the water...I suspect they will store it in Kentucky and Barkley to a point until the OH river crest passes... Kentucky lake level 353.9 and slowly rising now,,,normal summer pool is 359 I think the record is 372 or something in 2011 when they stored It until the OH crest passed.. ----- lake Cumberland 736.90. looks like it crested at 736.94...with 28,100 cfs outflow ...as of yesterday they were going to increase that to 35,000 after they build flood walls (record 40K) Dale hollow, just downstream is releasing 5,000 cfs the max combined allowed release is 40K I think.... note: Nashville needs 5.55 inches to break the monthy record

Wolf Creek Dam increasing releases to drawdown Lake Cumberland NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 15, 2019)– The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District plans to increase releases at Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., as soon as conditions allow in an effort to drawdown the water level at Lake Cumberland. Water managers at the Nashville District headquarters in Nashville, Tenn., said Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at a rate of 28,000 cubic feet per second, but plan to increase to 35,000 cfs as soon as conditions allow. The current elevation at Lake Cumberland is the highest observed since April 25, 1998 when the pool crested at 742.44 feet. The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984. In 2019 inflows are averaging 33,270 cfs and the lake has risen 19 feet Wolf Creek Dam last discharged water at a rate of 35,000 cfs in March and April of 1997. The flow of record from Wolf Creek Dam is 40,000 cfs in January 1974. River View Road had not been developed at that time. https://www.dvidshub.net/news/310958/wolf-creek-dam-increasing-releases-drawdown-lake-cumberland Local dams to release less water, hope to reduce flooding impact downstream (KY lake and Barkley into OH river) As the Ohio River reaches its peak, Looney says less water will be released out of the dams, causing lake levels to rise above typical summer levels. He says that should also help reduce the impact of flooding downstream. https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/2019/02/14/local-dams-to-release-less-water-hope-to-reduce-flooding-impact-downstream/

Tennessee Valley Authority 53 mins · The River Forecast Center is tracking significant rainfall with numerous rounds of heavy rain beginning as early as Monday and continuing through the week. Most of the heavy rain is expected Tuesday through Thursday. We are preparing by increased releases from the tributary reservoirs like Norris, Douglas, and Cherokee to create as much storage space as possible. On the main stem Tennessee River, reservoirs are being pulled down to below winter pool to have some storage and handle local inflows. We continue to work with the US Army Corps of Engineers to help reduce flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This rain event could result in high river flood stages, especially in Alabama and below Pickwick in the Savannah to Johnsonville areas. River stage info: Chattanooga, TN: http://tva.me/XehH50lyZqL South Pittsburg, TN: http://tva.me/8XyT50lyZqK Whitesburg, AL: http://tva.me/ZM9T50lyZqP Florence, AL: http://tva.me/lpmw50lyZqN Savannah, TN: http://tva.me/Eam150lyZqO Clifton, TN: http://tva.me/7Bkb50lyZqM Perryville, TN: http://tva.me/vNt650lyZqQ

it may be off its peak right now but still...... C031-081-070100- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180407T0100Z/ DE SOTO LA-RED RIVER LA- 754 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL DE SOTO AND CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISHES... AT 754 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER COUSHATTA, OR 21 MILES EAST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 739 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 LAC031-081-070100- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180407T0100Z/ DE SOTO LA-RED RIVER LA- 739 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 ..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITY OF COUSHATTA ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL DE SOTO AND CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISHES... AT 738 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COUSHATTA, OR 16 MILES EAST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR COUSHATTA. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

And now has weakened

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 847 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0843 PM TORNADO GRAND PRAIRIE 32.75N 96.98W 01/15/2017 DALLAS TX TRAINED SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO STATE HIGHWAY 161 AND ARKANSAS

Confirmed now

Still nothing confirmed but new warning Dallas county

Really nice hook now. The line just west of it will overtake soon but until then dangerous situation

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 804 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 830 PM CST * AT 802 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 67 BETWEEN ALVARADO AND VENUS. CASA RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL APPROACH PLEASANT POINT AND LILLIAN OVER THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. HAZARD...TORNADO.

an update still says radar indicated SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 756 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 TXC251-160215- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170116T0215Z/ JOHNSON TX- 756 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY... AT 754 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF ALVARADO. CASA RADAR SHOWS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHING FM-1807 JUST EAST OF ALVARADO. IT WILL APPROACH HIGHWAY 67 BETWEEN ALVARADO AND VENUS OVER THE NEXT FEW MINUTES.

TOR warned again also a TOR warned cell in kerr county

WFUS54 KFWD 160053 TORFWD TXC217-251-160130- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.170116T0053Z-170116T0130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 653 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 730 PM CST * AT 652 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITNEY, OR 14 MILES WEST OF HILLSBORO, MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

still on ground moving at a decent clip will start to affect southern metroplex here soon EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 645 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 TXC035-217-160100- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170116T0100Z/ BOSQUE TX-HILL TX- 645 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN BOSQUE AND WEST CENTRAL HILL COUNTIES... AT 645 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK, OR 16 MILES WEST OF HILLSBORO, MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

TOG EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 634 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 TXC035-217-160100- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170116T0100Z/ BOSQUE TX-HILL TX- 634 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN BOSQUE AND SOUTHWESTERN HILL COUNTIES... AT 634 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIFTON, MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

I think is a second TOR warned storm....like Indy said radar doesn't have polygons edit: looks like the same storm edit2: not sure ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 610 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BOSQUE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 645 PM CST * AT 609 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIFTON, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 600 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0001.170115T2327Z-170116T0000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 527 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CORYELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 600 PM CST * AT 526 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT GATES, OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GATESVILLE, MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 152320Z - 160115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. DISCUSSION...OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TX, NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CELLULAR IN NATURE WITH SEVERAL DEEPER UPDRAFTS HAVING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUPERCELLS. ONE STORM HAS A LONGER HISTORY OF ROTATION AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WILLIAMSON/BELL/CORYELL COUNTIES. WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE NOW EVOLVING NORTHWEST OF WACO OVER HAMILTON/BOSQUE COUNTIES. SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY IS STILL QUITE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION BUT DEW POINTS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION COULD YIELD A SMALL BUT INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. EVEN SO, THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS REGION IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WATCH.

storms near WACO (where dews are 64-65) getting that look almost like 2 warmfronts one moving north and another creeping west storm NW of Del Rio nice hook