Mshaffer526

28/20 in Gap. Steady light stuff

28/21 in Gap. Slowly but surely dews are rising. 

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Bottom line - still not the time to make definitive statements either way. Lots of moving parts. Tomorrow will bring surprises...where and how will be a nowcast. 

No doubt. And honestly, I would be overjoyed if that latest NWS forecast verified out here. 

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

It’s a little bit nervewracking being in the jackpot zone on every single model. At this point I’m just thinking of any ways this could go wrong.

Most of us would kill to be where you are... Just relax lol. 

26/14 in Gap. 

Euro run is exactly what many of us wanted to see this morning. Was afraid of a last minute shift NE but that looks promising. 

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

any one seeing any thing yet in PA my dewpoint went from 16 down to 11 last time i checked. I dont understand that since i have had returns overhead since midnight. so still dry went from 23 around midnight to 28 at 6am 

I'm hanging steady at 26/14. Did have some virga pass over earlier. 

Anything less than 24" IMBY is a bust. 

Good luck today to all of you! May your thump be blessed and your virga be absent. 

Good luck today/tomorrow everyone! Remember kids... No more NE adjustments. I won't feel safe until the 12Z suite and even then... 

27 minutes ago, Ej257 snow lover said:

How many hours of virga do we see? Mt Holly said on their fb page start time for allentown was around 6pm. Storm is already on top of us

OBS to the southwest made it sound like there was very little virga. 

Related to the SREF, the 00Z HRRR is really disappointing too.  Ditto--NEPA to NNJ.

00Z HRRR Is pretty disappointing for a lot of areas.  Obligatory "outside its range" but surprising.

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Can our honorable admins nuke the accounts of any folks from near Philly who passive-aggressively poke their noses into our forum? TIA.

I hope this wasn't referring to me.  It was an honest question because I've always heard the HRRR over 24 hours (hell, sometimes even 12) is extremely unreliable.  It was a pretty crappy run here too so I certainly would have no reason to be passive-aggressive?  Not that I would anyway.

Just now, mattie g said:

@MN Transplant: How much for Gap, PA?

I would never ask for local amounts 

Just curious to hear a Met's perspective on the 48 hour HRRR.  Sometimes hard to tell which ones are *really* useless at long range and which judgments are weenie-induced.

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It’ll be good if we all just pretend that the 00z HRRR doesn’t exist.

I always hear "useless at this range", but it keying on Lehigh Valley east into NNJ is hardly out of line with other modeling.  Thoughts?

5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Like the layperson on Facebook understands that lol

"HOW MUCH FOR COLUMBIA, ERIC?"

Really hope this doesn't keep jogging north.  

Down to 22 already in Gap. DP 12

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm really happy you're posting here. You live in an area where we don't have any posters. I always enjoy reading your posts on Philly weather.  

Thanks! Yeah, I'm in that weird no man's land between the two climo areas. I always love calling my reports into CTP, I might as well be reporting from the Moon. 

South Central PA along and east of the LSV has been bullseyed pretty consistently over the last few model runs. I'm barely in CTP territory (three miles west of Chester County line) but feeling really good for all of us out here. The large margin for error helps. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

So much for the Euro/NAM combo. Euro gives me 2', the NAM 5"...

Yeah, the NAM is bad for us. Too far east to get the full WAA, too far west for the CCB. 

Massive shift east on NAM. Dryslots Philly area most of the day Monday and not much back end snow works in. 

Thought Euro was coming NW... Might not be much change actually

Yeah I'm feeling good in Lancaster County. That said, I'd be sweating a bit if I was closer to Philadelphia and the 95 corridor. Mixing issues plus dry slot possibilities.