LaGrangewx

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Two false alarms in MD lately. 

Actually down in Bel Air MD for this go figure when my home town in NY is getting crushed. About 6” here with lots of icy crust. Back home family was reporting around 15” several hours ago with a lot of snow to go. 

11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

20+

Mahopac area looks like it’s been in that small intense band over northern westchester for hours 

Also late for models but the 18z hrdps was a thing of beauty 

Seems like widespread 12-18” in hv already gonna be some 30” totals

4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Do i go do the driveway again now, and risk not having enough to use the snowblower in the morning and have to shovel it? Or do i let it ride and do it all in the morning?

20” report by you just now in Monsey

Reminds me of how in 2017 we were supposed to jackpot but got dryslotted. A lot of models had the city jackpotting but are getting dryslot rn. Seems common these systems have a stationary band to the northern extent of the storm that models have trouble picking up on 

I'm marveling at that radar, looks to me like it could easily over-perform up there 

Just now, msd said:

Great snow growth now!!! Has to be 2 - 3 inches/hour

That’s awesome. I remember the snow growth was poor after the initial band in December. Was a Dense and fine sugar consistency.

5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Where are you? 

Down in Maryland rn visiting family. Bit of a dud here probably 4-5” with a lot of ice crust. Had 15 in the December Storm in Lagrange

Hopefully it rivals the December storm up there had about 15”. Looks like you guys are in a great spot right now. Jealous 

Rates look insane on radar up there. What are people seeing?

Not in NY for this one. Grandfather was saying about 6” in Red oaks mill Area not too long ago

1 hour ago, alex said:

Just got back from Harts Location. Got caught in some sort of snownado in Crawford Notch. Scary drive! But another nice snowy night here too

Can there be some significant differences in weather/snow up the road at Crawford Notch from Bretton Woods or is it generally fairly similar? I drove through there this summer after hiking Washington and checked out the hotel and then went for a swim at Ammonoosuc Falls. Was a beautiful swimming hole and area. 

Nice 150” this week in the high Sierra. They need it. Looks like another big one there next week as well. 

13 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I’ve been checking it out for our site for a few years now, ever since Ginx pointed it out and the fact that CoCoRaHS stations are in there.  I’ve found it generally to be quite good for my site.  It definitely takes the empirical observations into account at times (see the data assimilation points in the plot) to at least augment the modeling, but they don’t seem to just immediately lock the modeling to the actual observed data points when they do the assimilations from what I’ve seen (and as you can see in the plot below).

I don’t really follow the data for other sites to see how well its modeling reality, but I bet the meteorologists can provide more input on that.  I’d suspect results are going to be better with the modeling if you’ve got consistent data input, such as at a CoCoRaHS or co-op site, but it’s not too hard to imagine that if you’ve got a site with zero empirical observations and 100% modeling (I’m not sure if they do that), the output could get quite far off from reality.

Thanks Great explanation as always. I think it may struggle a bit truly modeling the highest of elevations in the mountain areas without a lot of obs like you said. Especially later season when the surrounding area is melted out. Outside of the infrequent reports from the Lake Colden Ranger there are no obs in the main high peaks area. Whiteface is quite removed from that area and has its own weather to an extent. Hiked Marcy early June 2018 and there was a solid snow pack from 4000’ up. Right now I just looked nohrsc has 20-30 in the high peaks when the Colden Ranger reported 4 feet in the high elevations. NOHRSC does seem to have the Presidentials modeled a lot better most likely because of the better obs

56 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Yeah, the snowpack topped out at ~18” here the other day, and it’s dropped a couple inches to 16” now.  My last snowpack liquid analysis was on the 19^th, when then snowpack had just shy of 2 inches of liquid in it.  Based on what we’ve picked up in the past several days, we’re probably in the range of ~2.5” of liquid at this point?

As I mentioned the other day, it looks like the NOHRSC modeling for our site (plot below) had the snowpack SWE a tad high because some of the Winter Storm Malcolm liquid when the temperatures were marginal probably percolated down through the snowpack here, and their modeling didn’t seem to account for that.  They have now done a couple of assimilations of the actual data I’ve sent in (green lines on the plot), and I think they’ve reigned in the disparity a bit.

The NOHRSC plot currently has our average snowpack density here at around 20%.  As PF mentioned, there’s plenty of fluff on top in the form of dry snow from these recent days, so I know we’ll see some settling of that.  But, there’s that very stout middle layer from the dense part of Winter Storm Malcolm that won’t settle much, and then a sugary/faceted layer below that representing the previous snowpack.  I think it’s generally going to be the top portion of the pack settling as we go forward, so we’ll settle some, but it’s not as if the snowpack depth will get cut in half.

Been looking a lot at NOHRSC data. Is it modeled depth and then also takes into account reports? If you look several years back it seems to be a lot less accurate than it is now a days. Like for example it will show the high depths on Mansfield at elevation but then it didn’t show the same in the ADK high peaks when I’ve personally hiked there with snow pack into early June 

36 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

The best snow is usually a bit east of the crest, which on VT-9 is just east of where that pond is on the left if heading eastbound. Woodford State Park over toward the VT-8 junction in Searsburg is typically where the max zone on VT-9 usually is. 

I'm on the east slope of a ~3,100' mountain so I get it good here also even though I'm about 5 miles south of VT-9. 

Anyway, I had another 3.0" overnight and into early this morning on 0.1" liquid making for a 30:1 ratio. 33.6" for the week and a 26" depth.

Sounds like an awesome week. How does searsburg pass usually do for snowfall in that area? Does it still cash in when Mount snow is missing out? I realize it’s up at 2500’ must have great retention I’m guessing. I’ve never driven it, would you say it gets even more snow than that stretch of 9 in woodford?

46 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Avalanche on Mt. Washington.

One rescuer dead while looking for two lost hikers.

I know folks like to live exciting lives out in wild nature, but always keep in mind the people who need to risk their lives and possibly end up dead rescuing your thrill-seeking ass.

Horrible news. Agreed that today is a day you shouldn't venture in there, you’re not just putting your own life at risk. Has news been posted online? 

24 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Absolutely agree.

Do you mean NYSkiblog? Harvey is the man, have had some good times with him at Magic. Gore is a sneaky good mountain in general. Not many places where you can take one lift and ski 1500' of woods back down but RIP Dark Side Lift Line. Other than some of the lower mountain cliffs of MRG it was one of the most challenging around. Could get into a rhythm easier and not landing flat like the lower Birdcage cliff. Every time I look at this pic my neck hurts. 

Yep ny ski blog. Gore is awesome terrain wise. If they got a bit more snow it’d be one of the top places In the east for sure. I was there last week before the snow and was still impressed with the conditions and snowmaking. 

Presidential’s have an avalanche warning with gusts forecast to 140+ and wind chills to -60 tonight. Sounds like a good place for a picnic. 

2 hours ago, LaxSki said:

This makes more sense. I drive rt 9 past. Prospect Mtn through Woodford on the way to Mt Snow every other weekend in the winter. Woodford consistently have more Snow than Prospect base but not double.In fact to mix it up we come up through North Adams and drive past Mitch’s location which consistently has more Snow than Prospect base. Either way during these upslope events it is amazing to drive out of North Adams or Bennington and climb in elevation and see the dramatic increase in Snow Depths!!!

Yea I would think somewhere near the crest of rt-9 just past the lake area around 2400’ in woodford probably does the best. There are actually a couple homes there around 2500’ it seems. Prospect base is at like 2150’ a bit before the crest. Also, the snow pack retention might get a little better as you drive further East is my guess. 

I know we discussed it before about ski areas reporting snowfall. I think My theory that Gore’s marketing doesn’t emphasize snowfall reporting has some merit today. They make generalized remarks about snowfall over a lengthy time period and do not have the best website setup to show totals it’s just a 24 hour report or 7 days. Anyways I know they got some fairly substantial snow yesterday (my guess 2-4+”) based on radar, photos, and trip reports I read on the ny ski forum. From what I can see they didn’t mention anything about yesterday’s snow on the report this morning which really surprised me. I just think places like Killington or Jay Peak don’t miss the chance at reporting every inch of snow that falls and for the most part that is how it should be done, barring any turn to rain that washes the fallen snow away. That should be mentioned in an ethical conditions report in my opinion. 

10 minutes ago, jculligan said:

There was about 3" of new snow last night with a persistent westerly wind of 30-40 mph in the alpine zone today. No doubt there was some pretty significant loading at the top of Left today. With snow falling on the mountain right now and a significant wind event shaping up for the weekend, the ravines are definitely a "no go" for me over the next few days. Mellow trees will be the ticket this weekend.

Yup I saw on the avalanche site they were foreshadowing a bad forecast the next few days in today’s discussion 

15 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Heading up to Phin's hood to check out the Crescent Ridge Glade tomorrow morning. No snow here in Jackson this evening. Hopefully it's a different story north of Pinkham.

Saw there was a Slide reported on Left Gully today and a skier got carried down. Ok though thankfully 

17 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Mitch only reported 4.8" over the past 24 hrs.  Woodford reported 4" at 8am today, so that means 18" since 8am--no way(radar was better up here for much of the morning) So that seems pretty slant-sticky.

I think maybe they were just reporting mutli -day totals in a weird way?

For reference I've had 18" of upslope the past 6 days---so a 22" total for Woodford would be realistic over the that span--maybe they just reported it strangely.  I dont know, it's a very mysterious place...lol.

I did see that NWS asked Mitch on twitter if he thinks the Woodford total is legit.

I like to check the prospect mountain report as a comparison. They seem to report each morning fairly consistently and said they had 3” this morning. I’d like to see what they say tomorrow. They are on the western part of the ridge and the woodford observer is on the eastern side. I think they’re like 3-4 miles apart. I do think based on mesos that area has some extreme micro variations tho. Woodford snobusters also has some generalized reports on Facebook.