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Frog Town

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    March 9-10 Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

    Still like the 3-6" for Toledo, should be an absolutely terrible commute tomorrow morning. I do think CLE needs to be chided a bit for only issuing a WWA for Toledo, there's no reason all counties north of US 6 are not under an advisory until you get east of Sandusky 

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12:30 PM Update...

Am working on final grid edits and headline coordination
regarding the snow arriving late tonight into Friday morning.
Will be hoisting additional advisories for the rest of NW PA and
the northernmost 1-2 tiers of counties in OH over the next 1-2
hours. More detailed discussion will come later this afternoon.

    March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    On 2/27/2023 at 5:53 PM, Frog Town said:

    It'll be back to it's Sunday solutions by 12Z Wednesday.  

    Got lots of laughs when posted but now it's not so funny.  When you've seen this happen so many times over the Winter, it doesn't take a MET degree to catch on.  

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

    Glad to be a part of the discussion

    Here's some items I've noted:

    - Anomalously deep surface low for a relatively far south latitude is pretty much a lock with the plotted EPS members all stronger than the 982 mb mean on the IL/IN border at 18z Friday

    - Bowling ball nature of the 500 mb low supports the idea that the track can be unusually far south for a system of this nature, in the presence of a strong downstream -NAO block. Another late season example of this was the late March 2013 snowstorm that brought record snow to SPI.

    - The downstream -NAO block is the key to the setup of here and points south still being in the game.

    - The general idea or trend of 12z suite today of deeper and farther north track also makes sense given the very strong and dynamic 500 mb low/PV anomaly, which can be expected to help pump downstream heights in the northeast a bit.

    If you look at 500 mb height anomalies, there's positive east of here and negative over Canadian Maritimes trapped under the block, and that'll be the impetus for our primary bowling ball wave to track east northeast and weaken instead of a sharper northeast or north-northeastward track.

    The presence of the NAO block merely gives us a chance that things could work out. It's a delicate balance with respect to the strength of the synoptic system and "feeling" the downstream block. The warmer and farther north solutions on the EPS and the GFS/GEFS are on the table, though I do think there's only so far north it can go.

    I'm concerned about a miss just north for us with the heavy snow swath because there will be a tremendous amount of latent heat release to help height rises east of here, and that may overcome downstream blocking to an extent, especially if the block trends a bit weaker.

    Edit: With 12z EPS 500 mb heights and anomalies valid 12z Friday.

    a76f4a18c0666b09bc708fb083d97e3f.jpg

    You are awesome for sharing your craft with us in a way that is priceless to wienies like us.  Thank you!

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