Frog Town

When I ever I do this, things change....

12Z Euro had a nice little surprise redevelopment for the southern lakes folks.  Won't pan out but nice to see everyone is still in it. 

I'm surprised the futility of the early 90's did take out this board.  Wait, there wasn't even the interweb...lol.  

17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Just read through some of the Dec 3 2010 storm thread.  So many peeps from then have left or been banned, kinda sad.

Wasn't there a tropical system connection to that storm??  

Let me ask you all this-  Would you rather have a cold and snowy first half of December to be taken by a Grinch Storm the week of Christmas, or the opposite?  

To answer my own question,  I'd take the latter.  Hoping the latter is the case.  

12/19 on the 12/3 0Z run vs. 12/19 on the 12/3 6Z run.  Could....this....be...the big pattern change??

 change??

5 hours ago, rainsucks said:

lots of folks in denial for some reason.

Because when we were kids we were to taught to believe in Santa Clause....I guess it's sticking with some of us for some reason, lol at myself. 

Definitely getting interesting next weekend.  A lot can change of course, but at least we've got something.  

31 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

I'm SAD.

More like WAD...

39 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Finally snowing here

 

A couple clicks west of you it's a different story.  Elevation...

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

November has been very benign. After starting with a dusting of snow on the ground, there has been quite a bit of sun. 

That's an understatement! 

24 minutes ago, Baum said:

oddly, I drove I-80 to NYC this week. It seemed like most areas were pretty much bare except for our area.

You guys have excess rain in the past 5 months??

9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

All the trees around here are bare, even the oaks are mostly bare now.

 

Same here.  About a week ahead of last year.  

Euro still has nice cold/wintry look for the next two weeks.  Also supported by its ensemble.  American models have been like unmanned fire hoses.  

Euro 12Z holds on to the cold a bit.  Not as extreme but respectable. 

24 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Annnnd it’s gone.

Annnnd just wait for tomorrow's data.  

19 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Wasn't 07. As for T-day 08 that was on the 27th and there was the storm a few days later that straddled 11/30-12/1 (I was in downtown Chicago where it was mostly RN) which left a decent blanket of snowcover to start the rockin' month of December. Perhaps that's what you remembered. It was Sun/Mon of T-day weekend.

Was doing the Turkey Day Trot in Detroit in '07 and about 1-2 inches fell that day.  It was in Novi but i'm looking at a pic right now of it. 

2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

None too soon for the h300 fantasy snow maps. Thanksgivings in the early 00's featured several cold and or snowy ones iirc. Vividly recall 2005 when my fam met in Frankenmuth for a holiday dinner and it was like 5F WC's. 

Yup!  That was a very cold and snowy one here in NW Ohio.  

Wa, wa, wa, wait a minute....It's the 300 hr 6Z GFS....Bank it

After further review, I believe I was possessed by JB.  

Looking pretty cold, and potentially snowy, around these parts for Thanksgiving.  Pretty good ensemble support per today's guidance. 

On 11/8/2023 at 3:52 PM, A-L-E-K said:

time 2 torch, love it

More like love to hate it. 

The law of averages says it's a fool's errand to bet against most Winter forecasts(Warm & Dry) at this time, but the long term teleconnections are dangling a carrot.....and i'm a sucker for it.  

2 hours ago, iBrian said:

Hurricane Otis - insanity.

Has there ever been a hurricane intensify that quickly, in recorded history at least??

On top of the arbitrariness of the forecaster, the timing impact( weekday commute vs. weekend) and early in the season storms vs. battle hardened end of the season is another big factor.  So why are we talking about this again??

I hope we can repeat this patter at least a couple times during Winter.  

If the IOD is forecast to be in a positive phase this winter couple with an El Nino, which typically translates to an MJO phase between 8-1, why are so many winter forecast's warm.  Curious??