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Posts posted by Frog Town
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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:
Models are sort of messy with handling these waves even though the general track corridor seems to be coming into focus. I'll take the FV3 lol
Me too, please!
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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:
Curious to see how a storm is going to cut into a 1038mb banana high to the low's northeast with 1045mb high coming down on the backside.
Was thinking the same thing with that blocking to the North. A degree of suppression seems in order with this. Can't discount the Euro completely, just doesn't seem to match the pattern setting up.
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With the much advertised warm-up already becoming muted and more cold air pressing, this should get good for much of the area. Of course the trough needs to maintain the positive tilt, and if it does we could have multiple waves to interact with the cold to the north. Lets see what happens!
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19 minutes ago, NEOH said:
From CLE's AFD. If this is the case sign me up for Spring!
A look at the global northern hemispheric circulation is beginning to show signs that the Arctic air from the North Pole will begin to flow back toward Russia once again in a similar fashion as what occurred through December. This will aid in ejecting the cold air mass expected Tuesday and Wednesday east of the area fairly quickly. This upper level pattern change will support the possibility of stronger ridges building into North America as we head into the weekend. The North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations are indicating a change to a strong positive phase over the next couple weeks and perhaps a warming trend.
Seems a little premature to me. I don't doubt a little warm up coming next week, but that has Zero support accept those two wishy-washy indicators.
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Just now, Harry Perry said:
Can you imagine if the 12z GEM verified? Haha less is more and more is less!
The storm is coming from Canada, Eh!
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Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:
TWC now calling for 6-11 here
Interesting. Usually not a fan of there tactics but definitely a sign of a trend south. You think that's a little excessive? I was thinking more like 5-6" between Toledo and Hillsdale
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The Canadian come a bit south with the heavier snow! Maybe since the storm is coming from Canada, it's the go to model?? I like the OOZ trends this evening in the Michiana area.
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Be interesting to see if the Monday system takes a track similar to this one??
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Everyone responding is clearly right on the line where 50 miles would make a big difference.
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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:
This run looks to still run along the IL/WI border.
Seems like it's ~30-40 miles south of 12Z. I call it a trend, lol.
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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:
0z NAM coming south early on so far.
Extrapolate that bad boy downstream and it = greater shift south from Chicago to Detroit corridor.
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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:
I'm looking forward to this system. Barring a complete miss I will be happy. There is some frozen snow outside but those bare spots thanks to yesterday have to go. It's easy to be jealous of the deeper snow in eastern IA and western IL, but we cant jackpot every Winter. As long as a fresh looking winter wonderland returns for the record cold blast.
My thoughts exactly. Not gonna be greedy. Just want to be hospitable when his majesty from the North comes for a visit.
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Good call on forming this tread @Baum
These are typically good for lots of folks in the Sub, and pave the way for some nice cold. One thing I do recall with these events is a strong dry slot and tight gradients, especially the stronger they are. We shall see!
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10 minutes ago, Baum said:
Just going to say we may need a seperate thread for the Monday potential as it stands out from these other smaller events...
Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
Smelt it dealt it! Get on it, dude!
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Up in Toledo we averaged about 8". I really feel for you guys down south. I can't tell you how many times I was sitting in the same position as you, only to watch the whole thing fall apart and hit Michigan. It's a crappy feeling.
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12Z NAM still has a good shot for the mid Ohio crew. If anything, it's bumped north a skosh, to get NW Ohio/ SE MI into a little more Deformation snows.
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Just now, buckeye said:
That map is unreal. 12" in the extreme w. Part of Franklin county ....0 in extreme southeast county
Part of me almost wants to see something that crazy
I remember hearing someone say "If you can smell the rain, you'll get the heavy snow" Seems to be the case in Franklin County.
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2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:
What? The 00z is running, and it’s nog anything close to a game changer.
My Bad. More of SE MI, NW OH improvement.
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Uhhh.....anyone watching this 12Z NAM coming in? It's kind of a game changer form I-80 North from Chi-town to Detroit.
Edit: Lack of sleep. Sorry, the 00Z NAM
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It's one things when it's the new FV3, but the Euro raises some eye brows! That's epic stuff within a week. Crazy!
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2 minutes ago, JayPSU said:
LOL...I know it's terrible...I just want complete and total model agreement. Is that asking too much???
Careful what you wish for, LOL. That's when you really get screwed.
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I'm getting the same vibes I got last night as the 0Z suite rolled in. I"m sensing a pattern here. Best cure for the is a strong Double IPA(NOT a Computer model for those of you wandering) and Bed. See you Weenies in the morning.
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1 minute ago, nwohweather said:
Whoa is that legit
That's the million dollar question? So many models and everyone's asking which one's legit. If it verifies, then it's legit. That's the best answer you're gonna get, T-town brother.
Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
Wash, rinse, repeat perhaps??