Frog Town

~2" here in Toledo..so far

13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Totally lucked out.    Blue sky with some wispy cirrus   Had 45 seconds of total where you could look without glasses.  It sounds obvious but it got much darker than I expected probably because I had only seen partial eclipses in the past and always expected those to be darker.  Crickets started chirping street lights came on and you could hear people cheering in the distance.   Bucket list checked without having to leave my yard.       

Same! Really indescribable and surreal.   

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

While I'm sure they won't get that much, there's definitely a significant signal for snow in the northern part of the country the last half of March. This is why I always say to those talking futility in January or even earlier that the snow season has so long to go, you really have to have EVERYTHING go wrong to get that. I can't think of a more deserving season than this one for the Northwoods, but mother nature may have other plans. Duluth still in the running, but Minneapolis screwed that up by being in the jackpot of that February snowfall. Here in Detroit, I cannot remember a more benign winter outside of one month, but since that 1 month produced 17 inches of snow, again, top 10 futility off the table. Toledo is surprisingly still in the running for their 2nd least snowy winter.

Yup

Storms and Cold back on the docket for the last week in March with potential big dog stuff.   Curious if it will stick, or just smoke and mirrors...

I remember reading and researching climate change/global warming as a kid.  The one thing that has stuck with me was the talk of drastic/wild temperature swings much like we are seeing.  Is it really even a debate anymore?? I think the wild extremists that talked of oceans rising 10ft and ridiculous temps muddled the waters and created a bunch of skeptics and conspiracy theorists.  Which are now grown adults with  very loud Social Media speakers..

Probably the wrong thread but Winter's is over for the foreseeable future.  

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

1882, 1976, 2017 are other impressive late Feb warmspells.

Was it late '16 or '17 that had the late Feb really warm spell.  I thought it was '16

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Yeah would be quite historic too. But the way this winter has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a warm March like 2010 or 2012. 

Late February is looking very late '98ish, another very strong Nino year.  

Quick and efficient transfer I guess.  Does seem kind of odd as that is our bench mark..

Considering starting a thread...JK.  But this would be amazing.  

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

For the second consecutive day, a stratus deck advecting in from the east killed our temp, holding us in the mid 30s.  The east wind off the lakes can be a real downer in winter and spring.

Same

See you guys mid Fall 2024.  Been real but now I gotta focus on my taxes and other less interesting things.  

That HUGE ridge that try's to torch the middle of the country first week of FEB get's crushed by what looks like a west based -NAO forming.  Kind of weird set up but seems to suppress everything south but no much cold air to work with.  

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Didn't they have an obscene snow depth last year? 

I traversed Mt. Whitney in the Sierra Nevada last August and we were dealing with a ton of left over snow from the previous event the Sierra Nevada last winter.  A lot of the locals had some crazy stories of being buried for days.   

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Any chance you were out and about this morning there? I was also worried in the evening when I saw the warm surface temps, but I saw a lot of schools closed and I saw some reports of very icy conditions. Curious to hear how bad it actually was or wasn’t. TOL never got below 34 degrees 

Sure enough surface temps of 30-31 did us all in.  Glazed up everywhere and was an easy call with schools this morning.  Just so different than the normal ice storm set-up(NE dry feed, 3M temps below freezing, etc.)  Really made me second guess the eventual outcome.  Thanks for chiming in though.  

If my temp is 34 in Toledo and dewpoint is at 32, we've essentially hit our wet bulb max, correct.  Not much more room for evaporational cooling is there?  HRRR seems to be verifying too cold.  

In Toledo and the temp is pushing 37.  Not sure if there is warmer push than modeled, but it's gonna need to cool off significantly.  

1 hour ago, torchcity said:

Well looks like winter is over. Hope everyone enjoyed the last two weeks. Palm tree weather is back and this is the new normal. So get used to it. Soon those two weeks won’t even happen.

This guy's like a whack-a-mole..

56 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Definitely worth the hour drive

Michigan City                35.0 in   0530 AM 01/20   41.71N/86.87W

Are things pretty accessible?  I have 4-wheel drive but it won't make through 2ft.  

February has been our saving grace the past few years.  

Grasping at straws I know but considering what's coming, the Euro has something nice at the end of it's run.  I'll take it.

12Z Guidance coming less phased and drier.  Was really hoping for this to ramp up, but it's gone in the other direction.  Oh well.

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

The setup tonight into tomorrow is odd...narrow band of snow, the lift isn't that strong, but it looks like it'll be a very fluffy / high-ratio snow so it'll stack easily...plus it will be falling onto cold roads. I'm not that impressed through about 7am, seems like any accumulations by than are on the order of half an inch to an inch in Toledo. Lift does get a bit stronger starting right around 7-8am, so I could see spots getting another couple inches the rest of the morning. It should become much lighter during the afternoon. I realistically think the Toledo area gets 1-3" but with the heaviest occurring between like 8am and Noon. Someone could get a fluffy 4" but most will be less and feel like 3-4" amounts would be more likely into MI. There will be a sharp southern cut-off, so there's some chance it stays a bit farther north, though a total whiff seems pretty unlikely. I I think Friday morning is a little more clear cut, it'll snow 2-4 or 3-5" everywhere out there with peak rates between 3-9am (give or take). 

Thank you!  Toledo area superintendents appreciate your insight.  

45 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Same criteria for warnings and advisories across the whole CWA (though if push came to shove we may be slightly more inclined to issue products for marginal amounts outside of the primary snowbelt). We have a bit less snow in the forecast in Ashtabula and NW PA than where the watch is, though I suspect we may eventually need warnings out that way because it will keep snowing through Saturday downwind of Lake Huron. I am excited for the snow and excited for the forecast shift tonight! 

Any insight in the Toledo area tonight.  Need to make decisions regarding school closings and it looks like we could have a couple inches in Toledo by 8am.  Thoughts?

3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Here's the newest NWS snow map, which is sort of non-continuous around Toledo. It's much higher than the approximately 1" that last night's models were saying.

 

Really questioning tonight's band of snow in the Toledo area.  Do you feel the RAP is accurate regarding a couple of inches by 11am Thursday.  Need to make decisions regarding school closures. 

Frozen ground and boundary layer will not go quietly into the dark.