Hoosier

Some issues/questions for Sunday, but wind fields aren't one of them. That part looks decent.

Somebody measured a 25 mb pressure drop in 7 minutes in the derecho. You don't even get that drop rate in the eyewall of most (if not all) hurricanes.

Actually, pushed to September 21 https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/deal-or-no-deal-threat-of-1st-nyc-teachers-strike-in-45-years-looms-over-school-safety/2595536/?amp

New York City is delaying in person school. With how they have contained the virus around there, if they can't go back, that's a real problem.

The average has dipped a little under 1000 per day over the past week, but it is a painfully slow drop.

Out of curiosity I went back and checked the obs from Laura in Lake Charles. It may not have captured the maximum pressure drop rate there since the sensor failed at 132 mph in the eyewall, but they dropped 23 mb in 1 hour. This was 25 mb in about one tenth of the time. Maybe some of the most intense hurricanes have a quicker drop rate than what Josh experienced, but this derecho was something else. We know about the extreme pressure drops that can occur in tornadoes (even within seconds) but I never thought an MCS was capable of something this dramatic.

Interesting. Would've thought that high end hurricanes had a faster drop than that.

Whoa, that is pretty cool. Probably on the order of what you would see in some hurricanes as the eyewall moves in.

Know another person who has it. One of my mother's friends. She is around 70 and the ironic thing is that she's a teacher who recently retired 1 year early due to concern about contracting the virus at school. She likely got it while helping her friends move. Nobody was wearing a mask and one of those people tested positive several days before she did. Last I heard she lost her sense of smell and has a cough. Hopefully it stays at that.

Looking around northern IL and surrounding areas, the precip deficits in August alone are running 3-4". So a couple things: 1. In general, it will take some time to put a big dent in the dryness. Maybe some spots that get lucky with convection can come out of it sooner. 2. How bad would it be right now if the months earlier in the year weren't as wet?

If you notice, the states with the higher rate of deaths per 100,000 were the ones that tended to get hit hard early and are doing a lot better now. That was when there were zero known treatment options and there wasn't a second thought about putting somebody on a ventilator. If, say, the New York outbreak had not hit early and instead happened in the summer, I bet the death rate would have been lower there.

Hopefully the mask wearing keeps the cold and flu rate lower. The less confusion we can have between what illness somebody has, the better.

Do we have herd immunity for the common cold? Asking for a friend.

Although there are a couple days left to go, we can already call this. Officially, this will be the driest July-August in Chicago since 1941. List of driest Jul-Aug: 1894: 1.20" 1919: 2.69" 1897: 3.18" 1893: 3.26" 1941: 3.26" 1916: 3.27" 2020: 3.35" (through 8/28) 1874: 3.73" 1930: 3.80" 1944: 3.82"

If you're interested, I have saved plenty of room on the Drought Express.

I think you're screwed for like 10 years now.

Yeah, the immune system has some problems with this group of viruses as time goes by. I think it's going to depend on what "success" is considered to be. The vaccine being a magic bullet where you get it once and never have to get it again seems extremely unlikely.

After whatever happens today, the next several days don't exactly look loaded with solid precip chances locally. One difference though will be cooler temps.

I agree about there being drawbacks, but it would be helpful to the board if you could give a brief description of why instead of these one liners.

LOT is kind of bullish about tomorrow. Convective trends could get messy though so not sure how the details will play out.

Timing is off for us. I am drawing a blank on the upper air setup for Cristobal but all I know is it didn't look like this lol

Northern extent of the solid cloud shield with Laura is already into central IL/IN, but it appears to have slowed/stalled northward movement.

Lawns look bad around here (don't really care though) but haven't noticed the yellowing/leaf drop.

I meant in the macro sense, not specific people's backyards.

Everything the rest of the year is going to suck in the context of the 8/10 derecho.