Hoosier
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So we are looking at a La Nina of some strength... possibly a moderate peak. Could be stronger than 2017-18 but not as strong as the one in 2010-11. In what is almost akin to a hell freezing over moment, Weatherbell/JB are going with a mild winter for the east. But we are not exactly the east (for the most part) and while there is a mild risk, I'd rather be in our region. Anyway, post your seasonal forecasts, discussions, etc here.
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Cardio work is more fun outside of the gym anyway. At least in my opinion.
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Spike in the next couple days may look worse than usual since we are coming off of a holiday weekend. On the plus side, at least Jonger can work on those guns.
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This is what will be factored in on the next update. Weekly average precip is around 0.75" in most areas, so it has been a wetter than average week in much of the dry/drought area.
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Saw that. Still seems like an environment that could support isolated severe criteria hail, but I can only put so much energy into discussing a 5% hail area.
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It is about 25-30 miles farther north this way, but yeah, no change farther west.
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Hail area was expanded north on the new update, but only through the I-80 corridor.
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Decent sounding there with a good amount of elevated CAPE. A bit surprised that SPC doesn't have the 5% hail area extending farther north, but we'll see if that changes on the 1630z update.
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Modest development underway in IL.
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Personally I would have removed the 5%. Could even make a case for removing the 2%... at least part of it. Though the kinematic environment is very impressive and if anything can manage to be sfc based, it would have a shot to produce.
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New LOT mesoscale disco is worth a read. To summarize, considerable negatives with a highly conditional threat. Better shot at convective development after 11 pm or so.
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I don't use the Euro as much when we get into CAM range, but it does convect in WI/IL later.
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HRRR has consistently been less bullish than the 3 km NAM on westward extent of convective development.
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Pretty confident in some degree of redevelopment... question is when/where/to what extent. One of those setups where a couple hour difference either way could have an impact on the severity of the outcome. Personally I'd lean toward a more subdued result, because I'm just not confident in an extremely rapid northeastward recovery throughout the slight risk area. Will have to keep a close watch on that though, because the potential is there to recover quickly, especially with south/west extent.
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I did know about the -17 at ORD at 2 pm on 1/10/1982. Didn't know that feature was available on that website. Cool stuff.
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We've certainly had some big cold in recent winters. The Jan 2019 cold shot was extremely impressive, as it even topped the Jan 2014 one around here. I remember the 2 pm temp at ORD was -16F on 1/30/2019. That is obscene and probably ranks in the top 3 coldest temps recorded at that hour of the day in Chicago (can't say that for sure of course).
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15z RAP clears it out pretty quickly tomorrow and has temps rebounding into the upper 80s as far northeast as Chicago. Probably not the most likely scenario.
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Not dismissing the negative factors tomorrow, but whatever does develop should carry some severe threat well into the evening. Here is a forecast sounding around Chicago at 3z Mon. Impressive look in the low levels for a damaging wind threat at least.
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3 km NAM likes redevelopment.
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Day 2 slight risk
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Was there a case dump or something in Illinois? 5500 newly reported...
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I would call 0.96" in the past 30 days terrible. Especially since the temps haven't been cool.
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Based on precip departure maps, parts of Ashtabula county have been running significantly below average.
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There's a time series feature on the drought monitor site where you can look down to cwa level or even county/city level. No idea how long it's been there but I just discovered it. Anyway, you have to go back to 2012 to find the last time that so much of Chicago metro was in D1 or higher. It briefly snuck into far southern parts of the metro in fall 2013. Goes to show how wet it has been overall during the past several years.
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The data cutoff is Tuesday at 8 am eastern, and while some areas received decent rain on Tuesday, I'm not sure that single rain would have had any significant impact on this map.
