Hoosier

Swedish Life Expectancy to Drop for First Time in Century Due to Covid-19 (Bloomberg) -- Life expectancy is falling in Sweden, which the country’s statistics agency says is directly tied to the coronavirus pandemic. The average age people live “has increased steadily in Sweden from 1900 to 2019,” the agency said in a statement on Wednesday. “The fact that it’s now falling stands out.” Sweden has suffered a much higher Covid-19 mortality rate than its Nordic neighbors, with its old-age care homes particularly hard hit. The country’s decision not to impose a lockdown remains controversial, and authorities are now shifting gear to place outright bans on some forms of social interaction to fight the virus. For men, average life expectancy has already fallen to 80.8 in the year through August, from 81.3, Statistics Sweden said. For women, it fell to 84.4 from 84.7. Based on the development so far, the statistics agency said it expects that “Covid-19 will cut life expectancy this year.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/swedish-life-expectancy-to-drop-for-first-time-in-century-due-to-covid-19/ar-BB1blluD?ocid=uxbndlbing

The AstraZeneca vaccine is taking on substantial criticism because of how they ran the trials.

What's sad is that all of those recommendations immediately made sense as to why it could increase the transmission risk. Been at this too long.

No doubt there will be some ugly looking data dumps on the rebound.

Sort of hit a wall. Almost 20 states haven't reported yet.

Lots of cars down the street. Somebody's having a big gathering.

Having thanksgiving outdoors today is not really feasible in a lot of the northern US.

12k in Illinois.

Considering it's thanksgiving, the early reporting states are putting up fairly high numbers. Perhaps the decrease from holiday reporting will show up more significantly in the coming days.

New storm thread

I have full confidence in that evolution. P.S. it's now Ken Jennings

That surface low REALLY gets yanked back due to the ULL influence. It's basically an App runner at first.

A survey was done about peoples plans for Thanksgiving. 3 states in/near this sub -- Iowa, Indiana, Missouri -- had over 30% of respondents say they plan on being with people outside of their household. It was noted that all of these percentages may be an underestimate though because some people may have been too shy to say that they planned to spend this holiday with people from other households. State by state data here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/24/upshot/thanksgiving-dinner-survey.html

Anyone up for some 00z NAM tea leaf reading?

A darn shame that the masks decided to start spreading it around more in the past several weeks.

When I saw the GFS starting to get into the timeframe, I thought there was no way it was going to throw snow back this far west. Typically that's a pretty bad surface low track, but system evolves in a way to produce a snow band pretty far west.

Honestly, 10 days seems kind of quick to see it reflected in the case numbers. Get exposed, become symptomatic, get tested, get the results back is often going to take more than 10 days. If anything, I'd pin it more on the period of warm weather earlier this month, but it's hard to say for sure because everybody in the Midwest was warm but the cases haven't dropped everywhere.

Many of us can probably relate, but the number of people I know who had/have covid has accelerated. I know about as many people who have gotten it in the past month or two as I did in the first ~6 months. Up to around 20 with 2 of them being hospitalized.

Yes. An individual person going into the hospital with covid now is more likely to survive compared to spring, but progress in knowledge and treatments is negated when the number of hospitalized becomes so huge. Deaths will only get worse. It is basically baked in that we will start seeing 3000+ deaths on some days by the middle of December.

If we are already roughly plateauing on cases in the Midwest, then it would strongly point to the idea that the 7+ day stretch of warmer weather at the beginning of the month was the main culprit in causing the temporary drop. As has been pointed out, numbers in the coming days are bound to look a bit screwy due to the holiday and will need some more time to evaluate. Then, it won't be until we get at least a third to halfway through December until we start to see any ramifications from Thanksgiving gatherings.

Satisfactory enough run in the grand scheme, as I am currently looking it at in the binary yay or nay on a big storm for somebody.

Nevermind. I read it again and think I get it now. I guess it means Monday already had 35 deaths, so adding 24 new to that day results in 59. Nov 18 already had 57 deaths, so adding 2 new to that day results in 59 deaths.

That last sentence makes no sense to me.

Seeing signs that the drops in some of the Midwest states are flatlining and not continuing to drop. Not good.