SouthBuffaloSteve

There’s virtually nothing left over the lake anymore...

Bye Bye...

Even the southern bands inflow is getting shredded into cellular bursts rather than a band.

I’m thinking northern band fires back up in next 2 hours then around midnight slides south, merges with the southern band and camps out Hamburg to East Aurora overnight. It starts sliding north towards morning and as winds ease up we get a more solid band that will be more efficient in dumping. Slides north to the city and dies out mid afternoon.

ok now I’m nervous... Screen grabbed these yesterday so they are 36 hours out. Compare current radar at 9:30 to the runs noted from 2 and 7 for 9 and 10 tonight. Pretty spot on if you ask me!

Just went through a really good burst. 2”/hr if only for 15 minutes. Maybe the lake is wiping the slate clean and getting ready to try again lol... still early boys hold the line!

Looks like shes gonna go shoreline hugger. Just like the models were showing... ughh not having a good feeling on this... what’s that little burst sliding north?

North Tonawanda area...

DP thinking band will move more south and total could be a bit high. Also concerned about wind shear...

Firing up on the western end!

He’s still sitting in his corner screaming why the NWS won’t follow the model output... His model has me in a 2-4” snow hole vs 18-24” on NWS map.

BUF holding the line still! Even added a 18-24” zone right over my head... Southwest flow lake band should have its act together by early this evening with nearly all mesoscale guidance focusing the strongest band over far northern Erie country, Grand Island into southern Niagara county. Snowfall rates could exceed 1" per hour for a few hours across this area, before steering winds veer slightly to more west-southwest drifting the heart of an intensifying lake band more into the central Erie county, including the city of Buffalo and Buffalo Southtowns, but likely remaining north of the more typical lake effect snow areas of southern Erie county. Instead, this event should remain centered on the city of Buffalo and the Southtowns through Saturday. Snowfall rates of 1"/hr will be likely with the best chance of seeing 2" per hour rates late tonight into Saturday morning. The snow band will begin to diminish late Saturday afternoon, but likely will not completely end until the boundary layer winds become more disorganized and drier air moves in later Saturday evening.

No. That’s the output from each of the three different ones. That’s a good grouping. RGEM will be the tie breaker.

HRW set all have good 12”+ hits. Little south but in the game for the metro. Very close blend to NWS call in my opinion.

3k holds south! Quick hit on back end of event for eastern burbs.

The incoming runs over the next hour should give us a better consensus on band placement... hopefully.... fwiw the HRRR was not the starting point many of us wanted to see...

Holy Smokes! Just tried the link one last time and they brought it back from the dead! On the negative side the BTV is also showing the band moving well south of the city overnight and never making it back up...

Ahhh! Spectrum News here to save the day! If we get a 30 mile wide band this might hold up. lol

Either the NWS call is gonna bust huge on this event or all the locals need to evaluate where they get their info from. Is a bit concerning in my opinion that the NWS forecast map hasn’t changed at all since last night which is unusual. Also worried as all the local models have similar differences to the NWS call. 2 puts the bullseye all the way out in Genny county. Band should go well inland with the winds but ehh... Starts the initial band well South almost down to Springville then pops a second northern band for a few hours before merging it into the southern band. 4 model locks the band in place south of the city for the entire event with only some slight jogs north then back south. Can tell Todd tossed the output map and just free handed a map close to the NWS forecast. Again it is concerning as their model never really brings the band back into the city after it slides south. 7 is very similar to 2 with the band WAY south to start the event then pops a second northern band that makes some unbelievable arch into Erie County. Map actually looks ok but again can tell it’s been adjusted and not just the model output.

Transition Zone Special! Speaking of which where do we define this zone? I always classified it as if you drew a line down Broadway on the north side and down the 400 on the south side.

Hmm... 3k and the HRRR moved south on bullseye... Grrr....

If he knows it’s wrong why does he even go out an post something like this...

48 hour WRF and ARW all fire up a band north side of the metro Friday afternoon and have 3” down by end of the run at 7pm Friday. All look to favor metro and north towns to at least open the event. RGEM tonight should be interesting!!!

That’s only through 7am... Just grabbed it and pulled it back north. Beautiful....

3k with the goods! 6”+ strip right through the city by 7am only halfway into storm.