Rockem_sockem_connection

It's so cold but we had 10 days of this last year.

Lol.

Nothing to report here. It will be all rain. RIP thread.

No one ever knows... not sure why they even make predictions about winter in October. Last winter they came true because of ONE storm. Just lol. Forecasting is a joke now, they actually show you every model run on the news. Does anyone recall that 15 years ago? I honestly don't, not like today. There's more data ad everything is more complicated, but it doesn't seem to make predicting the weather any better.

As soon as it started looking like freezing rain we should of all checked out. We don't get freezing rain like that here very often. It could of swing the other way I suppose but I'm not really surprised at any of this. Blame the people who yelled GREAT PATTERN two or three weeks ago. A great pattern doesn't include a decently positive NAO. Artic air, A negative NAO, and a solid Miller A on the models 10 days out would be grounds for excitement.

Non event for me and I'm not mad. FRZ isn't fun. All the rain will freeze after the fact though, interested in seeing how that plays out.

This is a typical positive NAO setup. Everyone who got their weenie goggles on was always fooling themselves.

I am interested for sure bud. I caught fluke from the surf for the first time this year which was cool. I want to toss out for drum for sure Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Nice. I just got into surf casting but only caught a blue this fall. Kinda terrible lol. I caught a 20 lber in the spring though in the big D. I salt and fresh water fish a ton Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

You fish bud? Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

I briefly went to school for meteorology because I love tracking snow. I ended up switching majors and financially it's been amazing, but I still love tracking storms. I hate driving in it and I hate those storms where it just lingers on the road and you end up parking on ice piles for days. I'm NOT a winter guy at all. I love the beach and fishing, t shirts and shorts. Hate winter. This winter is useless too since it's COLD but not snowy. Let's just get to spring already. Bring on the fish!!!

"meteorlogical" Real seasons: May through September = Summer, October = Fall, November through March = Winter, and April = Spring. Change my mind!

Always skeptic without neg NAO but why were people so excited for this pattern? Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Upcoming "threats" quickly becoming upcoming LOLs

2.25" in GLOCO outside Philly. Final total. Very interesting to see some folks in the neighboring PA counties do a sizeable amount more!

1.5" in GloCo NJ

What is a jebwalk

Very fine light snow still. .25 inches gloco

Snow in GLOCO

Thanks for the reply. My brother warned of the road reversal stuff and said it's tough to call right now. I don't get a lot of vacation time and otherwise wouldn't see him until Christmas when he came up here so I don't want to cancel if I don't have to. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Hopefully this thing goes out to sea. I need some advice but my problems are not even close to what Carolina residents have to deal with, but I am still in need of help. I'm flying into CHS from Philly Wednesday morning to visit my brother, and am supposed to go back Saturday morning. I only go down once a year really and we're supposed to go to an indoor concert in Charleston Friday. Seems like that will get cancelled and I'll get stuck at the airport Saturday. Perhaps I just shouldn't go? I have no experience with this kind of thing at all, and this is only my second time flying.

No idea why winter outlooks are a thing. No one ever has a clue. No one is ever going to call for a monstrous winter nor an extremely bleak winter. You mostly just see average or slightly above/below. Seems like it's just an unnecessary thing to predict honestly.

Thank you for the informed post.

Very interesting, as I did mention this already but was interested to learn some insight from an insider. This is totally a loaded question, but in your mind, why is it that many TV meteorologist sided with data coming from the models with more conservative solutions, as opposed to the more aggressive solutions offered by other models? What kind of comparison goes on with current atmospheric conditions versus what is likely to happen, and why did some models simply not pick up on what actually occurred? An unrealistic question I am sure to ask, as it probably requires a lot of details to explain that we likely cannot even understand - but if you could entertain this just a bit I think it would be awesome. I do find the NWS to be quite good as well - to add to what others have said.

I would just be curious to know what goes into a forecast. We are perceiving that forecasting was more accurate at another period of time, but is that actually true? If it is true, why is it? Is it because weather models have become less reliable, or because more models are available than ever and meteorologist are being forced to pick and choose which they think are right? Aside from weather models, what else goes into a forecast? Different atmospheric conditions are looked at like the AO and NAO, and those are even discussed on here. Are models relied on too much do you think? Possible perhaps, but it would take an insider from the business to really give proper insight to the matter as to what has changed from a forecasting perspective over the years. Someone could go back and look at each model, and determine the conservative models were suffering some sort of misinterpretation of data, and go into detail about what actually occurred instead. It would be up to the scientist/programmers to continue to improve weather models to increase accuracy, but I do believe the weather is just too tricky to ever be nailed down to a T from a computer model - at least at the moment. It would be up to the meteorologist of the world to look at current conditions and rely on experience to determine what is actually going to happen. A tough task indeed, and beyond my scope of knowledge for sure. I would be curious to learn about what the Euro/GFS/etc were seeing differently from what actually panned out, and why many meteorologist did not go with the solutions of the more amped models. Perhaps for no other reason than that it is safer to go with conservative numbers?