MUWX
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Everything posted by MUWX
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I am pretty hesitant to trust Kuchera here, or honestly, ever. Higher wind gusts cause fracturing of dendrites, and can result in lower ratio's than temperatures might indicate.
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The hype for this storm is already getting out hand. How many times over the last 5 - 10 years have been in a similar stop only to get up getting close to nothing? Feels like a lot.
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Springfield afternoon AFD is a great read.... because they basically admit that they have no idea what is going to happen. Stunning level of uncertainty less than 12 hours out.
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I am not sure how to feel about the current warning/advisory map. It sure feels like the warnings are too far north and too aggressive on total snow amounts up north. There is still time for the temps to jump, but so far, temps are underperforming fairly significantly here in SWMO, especially considering how borderline the set up is.
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Model differences are pretty crazy with the Monday storm. We will see what the rest of the 0z suite says but so far, very little consistency for being 48 hours out
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Models are really hinting at something towards the middle of next week. My snow pile finally melted on Friday, so I am ready for something new to track
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Canadian is always fun to look at when Arctic air is coming. If Missouri gets to -30, that would be something.
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Was not expecting snow tonight. Roof tops are turning white
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Pretty good storm here. I’d guess something in the 6-8 inch range just eyeballing what’s on the table on our deck.
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Guessing we are in the 2-3 inch range, radar and high res look pretty good. If we can cash in on some better ratio snow, we might be able to get another 3-5”. I’m optimistic so probably means we won’t get near that much.
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If you’re already at two inches, it feels like the forecast is pretty much on track to verify perfectly, no?
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Portions of the Wichita forecast area just got upgraded
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There is some very heavy snow across Oklahoma. I don’t see any reason for NWA to panic
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That’s not really what happened in Tulsa. Tulsa had moisture, just no cold. I wouldn’t worry in NWA yet.
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I understand them not putting a watch up because 24 hours ago this wasn’t a watch/warning level event. However, now that there forecasted snow amount is well into warning level, I don’t understand them not issuing a warning.
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That kind of defeats the purpose of a warning imo
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Tulsas warning map doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, given their forecasted snow map.
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Things looking really good for a snow storm and then it all falls apart at the last second
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I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if we wake up to some changes to the warning map
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12z HRRR is pretty warm, would likely cause some accumulation issues especially in Oklahoma.
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Images are at different times, but still a good run
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I’m not sure we can count on a northern shift. Ensembles are fairly dialed in.
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SGF explicitly stating that they expect their forecast area yo remain dry all week. Kinda surprising
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KC upgraded also…. All while most of this board gets 34 and rain. Sickening
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The complete lack of consistency with this system, for being less than a week away is crazy.
