MUWX

The GFS is pretty fun this weekend… sadly it’s pretty much in an island.

Got a somewhat surprising burst of moderate snow this evening. Put down enough to turn the pavement white again.

Got down to -13 last night, forecast was for -6. Really glad we missed the freezing rain and power outages.

I’m not really sure what to make of radar right now. There is a pretty big hole in the precip shield right down 44 in Oklahoma.

Just shoveled 75% of my driveway. Very cold. I’d guess 2 to possibly 3 inches. Super light and fluffy snow. Bring on wave 2.

SGFs Afternoon AFD provided exactly zero insight into how this might evolve. Really poor job by them this week.

I’m just hoping we hit 6”. Second huge let down in 2 years.

It’s just not really the heavy snow that Mets have been hyping up. Dry air is probably not the right term, but it’s also not what’s been advertised for days.

It pretty much nailed it here last night with us never being able to saturate but could have been a broken clock situation.

HRRR is really trending further east with the heaviest precip tonight. Not even a surprise at this point.

Hard to fathom how unlucky this area is when it comes to winter weather. Springfield has cut their totals, yet again.

Mets do seem way too reliant on models, its really frustrating. SGF has dropped me from an expected storm total of 14" to an expected total of 9". They missed last night badly. They put out a graphic that showed 2-5" up here and 2-6" area wide, I woke up to .5" on my back deck and I think half of that had blown off my roof. They just weren't even remotely close on that initial round. Models look pretty good for round 2, but we are going to need some good ratios to do anything impressive, unfortunately, when you are dealing with high ratios a little change in QPF makes huge changes.

Just a really bad forecast from SGF and most local Mets, it appears. Too early to call it a bust but SGF has reduced their expected totals in not insignificant way already.

I thought it became pretty apparent yesterday that this wasn’t going to be historic, at least up here. The models pretty much universally caved by 12z yesterday. I still have some hope for round 2, but there’s pretty much no chance we break the 10” mark. Round 1 wasn’t my biggest snow of the year, which was impossible.

Got about a dusting to a half inch here. Pretty disappointing.