leo2000

I am not surprised especially if the polar vortex splits one piece near eastern USA and Canada and the other to Europe.

A lot colder euro weeklies today on the East Coast!

I expect January to be colder than normal and at times slightly milder than normal and February to be overall colder than normal and March to be slightly colder than normal.

Looks like the storm track orientation is off for coastal storms as all are hitting Newfoundland.

Also preciptation looks to be above normal as well during showing up on the first two weeks the most reliable at that range. Looking at miller b coastals probably.

They are not the only ones trending colder so is Noaa

One thing is obvious that warm pattern keeps getting pushed back time and time again. The latest Euro Weeklies the most reliable period being the first two weeks show colder than normal temperatures for all the east coast.

Goodbye La Nina?

Those Euro weeklies are horrendously warm!

That was a strong El Nino that faded into a weak La Nina.

Yes, that looks to be happening and even if it gets mild somewhat in early January but that may not happen as models have been forecasting warm in the long range and it never materializes. I think we could have indeed some storm threats before Christmas and on Christmas itself.

I got the feeling we are going to have a early January thaw for the first two weeks of January then back to the colder pattern we had since late November into all of February.

Risky business to bet on the "coast to coast" ridge holding firm at the margins, as I've been warning @weathertrader (I'm hyping cold right now) Polar vortex anchored over Hudson Bay just needs a subtle nudge and it dumps out e.g. Day 12 (AI-GFS)

Interesting situation happening here the big warm up is being muted by the latest Euro Ensembles as the -WPO is fighting back. On the other hand the latest GEFS holds onto the big warm up and so does the GEPS.

I know many are down on this big warm up the up side however is this may actually offer a chance for a big coastal storm as the cold pattern relaxes.