leo2000

Those Euro weeklies are horrendously warm!

That was a strong El Nino that faded into a weak La Nina.

Yes, that looks to be happening and even if it gets mild somewhat in early January but that may not happen as models have been forecasting warm in the long range and it never materializes. I think we could have indeed some storm threats before Christmas and on Christmas itself.

I got the feeling we are going to have a early January thaw for the first two weeks of January then back to the colder pattern we had since late November into all of February.

Risky business to bet on the "coast to coast" ridge holding firm at the margins, as I've been warning @weathertrader (I'm hyping cold right now) Polar vortex anchored over Hudson Bay just needs a subtle nudge and it dumps out e.g. Day 12 (AI-GFS)

Interesting situation happening here the big warm up is being muted by the latest Euro Ensembles as the -WPO is fighting back. On the other hand the latest GEFS holds onto the big warm up and so does the GEPS.

I know many are down on this big warm up the up side however is this may actually offer a chance for a big coastal storm as the cold pattern relaxes.

They are too you can see the EPO ridge in Alaska high heights where before there was low heights. This could a trend GEFS 12z shows this.

A lot of people are forgetting all it takes is a transitional +PNA to get a big storm to pop on the east coast. Speaking about that models seem to be showing that on the 13th of December. I watch that period very closely for a miller b snowstorm.

Indeed a full blown blizzard

Yeah overall cold but I don't like seeing those low heights over Alaska ak vortex.

So we should expect the models to be getting colder?. For some reason the Ak vortex is still there plus the EPS this morning did not look that cold.

I don't buy the +EPO with MJO going in phase 8 along with the weak polar vortex. I do think a +PNA is coming.

Precip predictions

Confirms what I have been thinking (so far). We shall see though.