Latest AFD from IWX:
Current expectations are for decent inland penetration of banding
tonight given strong northerly flow connected in with long axis of
Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. With that said, hard to say
if/where banding will hold in for a decent time for counties just
south and east of the Winter Storm Warning
(Elkhart/Kosciusko/Marshall/Fulton IN/Starke). Reduced visibilities,
cold sfc temps, and additional accums will likely allow at least
advisory level impacts to persist beyond the current 05z expiration
in these counties. An upgrade to warning cannot be ruled out in
Marshall/Starke/Elkhart counties if the southern end of more
dominant band settles in for a time. Much higher confidence for
additional 6" plus snow amounts and intense 1-2" snowfall rates in
areas currently under a Winter Storm Warning. Latest guidance
continues to suggest Berrien, far western Cass MI and St Joseph IN
in line for longest duration in intense lake plume where localized
totals will likely exceed a foot. Winds will also pick up on the
western fringe which could create some blowing/drifting.
