sbnwx85

Would be nice to have the models ramp up an event as we get closer for once.

Ended up with about an inch of wind-blown lake-effect. About 30 minutes to my northwest, Niles, MI got over 8 inches. A spot an hour north of me got 22 inches. Gotta love lake-effect.

Keep that band moving south, please. So far just flurries here.

Main lake bands stay to my north on this side of the lake through Thursday night. There should be some impressive totals under the main banding of snow in Michigan. Hoping to squeak out 2-4 here.

That’s all I needed to hear!

Not advocating for a WSW in my county...but a little surprised IWX didn't go with one for LaPorte and Berrien. I think they'll do a little better with snow totals thanks to the lake.

IWX going Winter Wx Advisory. Highest totals of 4 to 7 in northwestern counties. INZ003-004-MIZ077-078-010430- /O.NEW.KIWX.WW.Y.0012.220101T1800Z-220102T1200Z/ La Porte-St. Joseph-Berrien-Cass- Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend, Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Niles, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan, Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, and Marcellus 316 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021 /216 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021/ ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Locally higher amounts possible, especially near Lake Michigan. * WHERE...In Indiana, La Porte and St. Joseph Counties. In Michigan, Berrien and Cass Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow, possibly mixed with rain at the start, will develop Saturday afternoon and may become heavy at times late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

Nice 19" lollipop over the north suburbs.

Since I'm awake...12z HRRR put the snow axis a bit south of 6z. Drier in northern IL outside of lake-effect/enhancement. 6z 12z

Pretty rude I’m up for work before 8am for the first time in a year and I’m not in a Winter Storm Watch. Rooting for a half inch of sleet at this point.

Here's the 18z GFS map for inquiring minds. Lock it in.

They weren't juiced enough to post.

Sitting relatively close to the rain/snow line here and one thing I've noticed is there's not a huge ice threat as the storm advances north. Ice might be more of a threat back toward Kansas and Missouri, but not so much to the north. IWX seems to like the more snowy solution to this point: .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM EST Wed Dec 29 2021 This is where it gets interesting. Confidence continues to increase that the Great Lakes Region will experience a potentially significant winter event...the confidence is still low on exactly where, when and how much of an impact. Continued trends are for a more southerly trajectory...which would favor more snow vs. rain and somewhat higher snow ratio. However that also would be a situation that has less moisture to work with. Regardless...keeping the trend of the previous forecast and have bumped up PoP for Sunday as the flow would favor Lake Enhanced snow. Will begin pushing messaging via Social Media for the upcoming weekend and trending toward a colder solution.

Lock it in.

Gotta keep reminding myself not to get overly excited about anything for another 48 hours.

I'm certainly mentally prepared for a cold rain here...hopefully followed by some lake-effect.

Monster run on the GFS. Lake response looks good, too.

We'll get a big dog in April.

What a lovely Maycember we are having.

Impressive couplet on the storm crossing the Illinois River into Naples.

TOR Warning all the way up in Iowa north of the Watch. Impressive!

Meteorologist Andrew Whitmyer in South Bend posted this interesting fact.

Thought I was seeing lightning but it’s transformers blowing. Leaves on trees and heavy snow don’t mix.

Had dustings the last couple of mornings but that lake effect band has dropped a quick inch or so. Heavy wet stuff sticking to everything. We picked a good night to put up the Xmas lights!

I was going to ask if storms could develop if the cap can erode after sunset. Latest SPC discussion answers that with a "maybe?" Mesoscale Discussion 1492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Areas affected...Eastern IA...Northern IL...Far Southern WI...Northwest IN...Southwest Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 120035Z - 120200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase this evening, with at least an isolated severe threat into late tonight. New watch issuance is possible by 01-02Z. DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells over eastern IA, southwest WI, and northwest IL have weakened over the last hour, likely due to generally weak large-scale ascent and modest capping noted in 00Z DVN sounding. However, regional soundings and VWPs also depict a rather strong southwesterly low-level jet across the area, which is generally forecast to intensify further tonight as it veers to a more westerly direction. Storm coverage is expected to increase with time later this evening within this warm advection regime, as airmass recovery continues across northern IL/IN and a surface boundary moves southeastward across the region. Even if storms remain somewhat elevated tonight, steep midlevel lapse rates and rich low-level moisture will still support large MUCAPE, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some organized storm structures. A mix of cells and clusters will be possible, posing a threat of at least isolated hail and damaging wind. A conditional tornado threat will also be present with any storm that can become rooted in the boundary layer, which would be most likely for a few hours this evening before MLCINH becomes increasingly prohibitive late tonight. While some uncertainty remains regarding the convective evolution and coverage of the severe threat later tonight, watch issuance is possible by 01-02Z, in advance of the expected increase in storm coverage. ..Dean/Goss.. 08/12/2021